Arse aren't in the champ-o though

I really am struggling to follow your logic, but it seems impossible that there is no conceivable way that the draw couldn't affect a team in a positive way.

what I'm thinking is: it will have a greater (negative) effect on the oods to draw a strong POT2 team than it will have (a positive) to draw a softer one.
For this reason, you should wait.

I thinking 2016 of course I don't know why.
Anyway, replace Arsenal, Leverkusen, Napoli and whatever with their counterparts this season. The team in question is not really important.

Booked

For example.
Say I want Benfica > Mun / Benfica > Pool / Benfica > Spurs.
Don't you think I should wait and pray that I draw one of them?

Unless you are just making this bet to simply bet that one team will have a tougher draw than the other.

Considering the basis of the bet is which team is stronger (or more likely to progress at least), the unknown of the draw is priced in to every team. The draw can substantially change prices so it certainly increases variance, but I don't see how it can the EV.

It is to open yourself to being ****ed by the chance of a draw.
(I'm not even talking about the fact that Pool will obviously be one of the Hot Balls)

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Yes, but then you lose the opportunity not to run like god, which is equally likely.

I don’t know if you can use transfer wise? Otherwise I’m at a loss. Paypal/stars still valuable options too actually.

If not guess we will have to miss it.



H2H or handicap for United.

Man Utd are -3 or 1.7

Spurs is a flip so will do £20 on that.





I’m thinking along the same lines as joe here.

Why aren't we all making last longer bets now?
The aversion to getting ****ed in the ass is bigger than the satisfaction of running like god.
Similarly, I don't think the draw has the same effect on the odds when one gets ****ed and when one gets the upper hand.

If you are going to make the bet anyway, whatever the group draw you face:
Scenario 1: You draw Bayern and Barcelona. You get better odds, you bet anyway, you go cry in a corner.
Scenario 2: You draw Benfica and Roma(idK??). You have to bet at worse odds, but they will not have changed as much compared to what they changed in the previous scenario.
Also, what you loose here in value you gain in Life EV in form of HOPE (only to give it all back and some around January).

Maybe I'm thinking too much in terms of "Pool to advance" and not "Pool > United" ??

sorry vruk but you are wrong, its neutral EV. allow me to explain:

lets say i make $100 bet at evens with poster X pre-group draw that pool > mun

scenario 1: pool last longer than man utd, i win the bet, poster X disappears from 2+2 forever: total EV = $0
scenario 2: man utd last longer than pool, i lose my bet and become super busy, total EV = $0

now lets say the bet is made post-group draw

scenario 3: pool last longer than man utd, poster X disappears from 2+2: total EV = $0
scenario 4: man utd last longer than pool, i become super busy, total EV = $0

so hopefully you now see that EV of the proposition is precisely equal whether the bet is made pre- or post- draw

thanks andrej

Nice lol

Cool GL

Vruuuuk,

Joe is right, the bet can still have value there's just a lot of variance. To get proper odds you would have to go through every possible permutation of the draw, take the average chance of advancement and divide by the number of permutations.

It just adds to the variance. But that's no different than betting on, say, a team to win the FA Cup when you could see an early Manchester derby while the other good teams play League Two guppies.

Obviously with more information we can more easily assess the value of the pick. That doesn't mean it's -EV to bet predraw.

The simple reason it's -EV to bet on Liverpool now is that they are pot 3 and united are pot 2, therefore they will get a harder draw.

Any bet you make with a bookmaker will have priced that in.

Yes, but I doubt LFC_USA wanted to take the bet at evens so it's not -ev as it'll be reflected in the price.

he, think I got it, still feels weird thou, but makes perfect sense now that I stopped to think about it.

Will be looking to back Benfica against any English team except City. Before or after the draw

Fair enough then.

Feck Boids solved fantasy football

But Liverpool finished way ahead in the league and are therefore better. Enough better to cancel out any draw disadvantages.

If we're all clear on that fact then what's the point of the bet?

dont forget to factor in the unique anfield atmopshere on those special european nights