Yeah Watford do look good, missed them.

I have just been reminded that Blackburn got relegated last season. LOL VENKYS.

No love for the Clarets on the handicap?

To be fair, most of it looks about right to me, although I think everyone from Leicester down maybe should be a bit closer together.

With two teams below them and Burnley being the WOAT, they probably should be +60.

I'll take them at +60 vs the field.

Quote to book.

Duckers should be all over that.

West Ham at +32 could be value if it all begins to click

Everton look terrible to me. WBA might be the best shout for me.

I'd like to bet on Burnley against the following (seriously this time!):

Bournemouth -8
Stoke -8
Brighton +1
Huddersfield +3

£50 on each, quote to book.

Hopefully I've got the handicaps the right way round, but I'm sure you know what I mean if they're wrong.

TP, I'm a poor student, but will lump on Stoke -8 for £25 if you fancy?

I'll have Bournemouth for £25 if you can accept.
If you another one, I'll also take Watford -1 for £25.

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Booked

Booked Bournemouth, but I don't want to bet against Watford, sorry.

Bets are a push if either finish exactly 8 points in front of Burnley.

Great, gl.

I'm interested in backing Liverpool v. United and Spurs. And also interested in a CL last longer with the same teams (qualifying stage doesn't count)

So wait, if Pool get knocked out in the qualifying stage then you don't lose?

u still avent figued out how to transfer money from my korean bank account, unfortunately so i think ill have to back out. Unfortunate, I think it would have been a fun sweat

a CL last longer before the group draw is so -EV that it's not even worth mentioning the qualifying stage.

Qualifying stage meaning the playoff Liverpool have to win to qualify for the group stages. Seems fair, he's saying bet is off if Pool don't make the CL group.

explain to a simpleton how it's -ev?

Um, yes exactly. If one team has to play a qualifier and the other 2 don't why does that seem so unreasonable?

Yeah sorry, I misunderstood/thought about it the wrong way.

TP I'll take the other £25 of Stoke -8

From my understanding, the odds for Pot2 (Arsenal and City) teams will never get better after the group draw.
City is already too short.
Arsenal will only improve their chances if they draw Benfica, in which case they are ****ed anyway.

For Port3 teams, the effect on their odds if they draw Atletico, Dortmund and Napoli will be higher than if they draw Porto, Leverkusen or Sevilha.

So, from where I'm seeing this, if you want to take Pool on this bet, I think it's +EV to wait for the draw before making your bet than to make it now and pray.
Tougher group? Get Better Odds
Softer group? Enjoy your life and lol at United when they can't get past Leverkusen.

If I want to take Benfica on a last longer, I'll wait to draw an English team, open my wallet to the deluded fans and collect the money.

Edit:
I just realised how wrong what I said about City is. NVM.
I believe point still stands for Pot3 teams, Pool and United.

I just don't think you can get correct odds until after the qualifier.