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Old 12-22-2015, 12:36 PM   #22626
SenseiSingh
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Understanding of probabilities etc does a lot to counter popular narratives that arise out of not understanding probabilities etc.

When bringing up topics/perspectives that are discussed or even taken as given itt with people I know are bright and well educated it is often greeted with blank wtf stares.

Something as simple as a team running above expectation etc.

Now factor in A: Most people are dumber than my sample group, B: Mass media has to keep it simple and likes to enforce narratives.
Great essay on narratives. Slow in the beginning but very interesting overall.

The Story Trap
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:37 PM   #22627
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
Understanding of probabilities etc does a lot to counter popular narratives that arise out of not understanding probabilities etc.

When bringing up topics/perspectives that are discussed or even taken as given itt with people I know are bright and well educated it is often greeted with blank wtf stares.

Something as simple as a team running above expectation etc.

Now factor in A: Most people are dumber than my sample group, B: Mass media has to keep it simple and likes to enforce narratives.
Even smart people dont understand variance. Poker just makes the concept way too evident for you but if you dont experience it in such a direct manner the temptation to look for narratives is just too much.
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:38 PM   #22628
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Re: English Football 2015-16

SugarNut - since it's Christmas, I'll be kind - **** off, you cretin.
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:44 PM   #22629
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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SugarNut - since it's Christmas, I'll be kind - **** off, you cretin.
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:45 PM   #22630
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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SugarNut - since it's Christmas, I'll be kind - **** off, you cretin.
not having sugarnut on ignore by now is like browsing without adb.lock
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:47 PM   #22631
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Welcome to TBLITW thread SN! Happy holidays!
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Old 12-22-2015, 12:49 PM   #22632
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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not having sugarnut on ignore by now is like browsing without adb.lock
LOOK GUYS. I HAVE HIM ON IGNORE!!!!

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Old 12-22-2015, 12:52 PM   #22633
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Welcome to TBLITW thread SN! Happy holidays!
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:01 PM   #22634
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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These are getting better and better by the day
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:01 PM   #22635
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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I can't figure out if it's hilarious or sad that the pundits who make millions of pounds are offering "fat bloke in the pub" type insight. For example every one of them are saying Leicester are legitimate title contenders. As soon as some teams, especially smaller ones start treating Leicester like they have serious attacking threat they should be done for. Also they are conceding ****ton of goals, but they react like they never seen the table/games/stats and just getting shown the points on the table. Just utterly clueless.

I think it would be more interesting if they just invited DuckSauce and have discussions about projections/models/player scorepoints and just cut out the parts where he notoriously sniffs his own farts about how he got 10 to 1 on Chelsea not getting top4. I mean I'm 100% sure he'd have more insight that most of the pundits out there, but I guess people enjoy watching people in suits who were decent at kicking the ball some years before...
They couldn't afford the sauce.
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:02 PM   #22636
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Had to check for "u" or "i" in your name
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:09 PM   #22637
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Originally Posted by Sugar Nut View Post
However, since most of you guys think that coaches are worth jack ****, and that pösting colourful pictures on the internet with some numbers sprinkled on is the pinnacle of football analysis, I assume most of you think that 2p2's goofball >>> Pep Guardiola.
Well I don't know what everyone else's stance on this is in here, but I lean towards the opinion that value added, by a manager, in terms of results in the short run is minuscule versus what the playing-personnel looks like.
Now, that's not to say that they can't have long-term influences on the squad, culture and inner workings of clubs and thus in the long-term, say a 7+ year period, an elite manager could probably have a significant effect on long term performance. Pity we almost never see that happen.
There's too much money and too much player+fan power in football. Managers have probably a 10-15 game survival cutoff where if they catch bad variance or run bad with injuries and significantly "underperform" the knee-jerking commences and it's off with their heads.

The ability for a manager to have any significant long-term effect has been taken out of their hands. If their lucky enough to walk into a set-up where everything is already almost perfect (Guardiola, both times) or lucky enough to run hot and trick people into thinking they're more important than they actually are, they can go on to perhaps have a long-term positive effect. But by that time someone will have come in and offered more money and the cycle keeps on trucking. We see it all the time. At this point a manager is pretty much just a glorified fall-guy.

That's my over-arching theory, at least. Not that I think it's necessarily worth anything.
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:10 PM   #22638
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Welcome to TBLITW thread SN! Happy holidays!
You're dumped. Slut.
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:12 PM   #22639
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Re: English Football 2015-16

looks like mourinho + mun is going to happen. sickening

will be praying every night for total failure
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:13 PM   #22640
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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You're dumped. Slut.
not even a pm...classy

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looks like mourinho + mun is going to happen. sickening

will be praying every night for total failure
a friend of mine who supports Chelsea did say that the Legend TSO wouldn't manage another English club because he loves Chelsea so much. Can't wait to talk to him about this again. I know I should choose my friends better, but what can I say, my ex is a west ham fan
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:25 PM   #22641
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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I know I should choose my friends better, but what can I say, my ex is a west ham fan
We all make mistakes, but at least you may have learned from it.
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:29 PM   #22642
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Andy Gray was actually quite decent especially for his generation, god rest his soul.
Do you think Andy Gray is dead or is this a clever joke I don't understand?
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:30 PM   #22643
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Re: English Football 2015-16

*andy grey
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:31 PM   #22644
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Take a bow son
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:42 PM   #22645
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Originally Posted by t3hbandit View Post
£100 bottle? any more would be out of line on what we usually spend.


That should land you a quality Cognac or Armagnac. Without knowing exactly what's available, you can certainly buy an XO Cognac and hopefully find some Marie Duffau vintage Armagnacs
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Old 12-22-2015, 01:48 PM   #22646
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Do you think Andy Gray is dead or is this a clever joke I don't understand?
It was just banter

Last edited by THEGOATIAN; 12-22-2015 at 01:53 PM.
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Old 12-22-2015, 02:08 PM   #22647
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Re: English Football 2015-16

seems like all the twitter IDKs are saying LVG is sacked and Giggs is taking over. one time!
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Old 12-22-2015, 02:11 PM   #22648
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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these really don't take a lot of work but they're hard not to laugh at
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Old 12-22-2015, 02:27 PM   #22649
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Rumours that Pep might choose Chelsea over City because his wife prefers London. Gonna be a fun few months if you're into the rumour mill thing.

Edit: Okay german article that I read quotes the Daily Mail. Didn't catch that the first time around, disregard
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Old 12-22-2015, 02:27 PM   #22650
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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seems like all the twitter IDKs are saying LVG is sacked and Giggs is taking over. one time!
Which? Nothing new on the united reddit page, and they are pretty OCD with rumors.
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