Quote:
Originally Posted by valenzuela
What was the reasoning for betting against Chelsea making the top 4? A sample size of 2 games of Xgoals? Mourinho third season theory?
I want advice from the guru.
Numbers + eye test. Their defensive numbers were truly putrid and just looked broken, like their chances and shots conceded profile was similar to QPR's last season to give you a comparison. As for WHY this is the case it is tough to say, but no one really has much of an idea aside from some fatigue type theories.
They are just conceding a ton of shots on target in really good positions. They are also allowing a lot of completed passes in dangerous positions. Getting outplayed 11v11 before the red v swansea was kind of a red flag so i tried to just watch them closely and waited to see if the numbers improved. They didn't and I was completely in on them just being bad after the palace game.
Market was hesitant to adjust so I jumped on what I thought was a great spot before the market adjusted. Helped greatly that they ran about 12 points over expectation last year so people were still super bullish on them when in reality there wasn't much between them arsenal and city.
On the flip side I was def a little too bullish on palace as they are running super hot with regards to not conceding. The different models are kinda all over the place with them with riley's SoT based model has them pretty high, but caleys pure shots model has them much lower. Pardew is the goat though and his teams have typically outperformed shot based metrics so that bodes well at least.
I'm pretty bad at IKTS so you can make fun of me for that still!