English Football 2015-16 - Leicester City won the league
11-24-2015
, 08:16 AM
no while not impossible you are a decent dog to win 5 80/20 flips in a row or whatever the rough win probability is for pool wins which is obv less than 80% on average. you can only be good and play good and whatever happens happens.
in the same way that is unlikely that my scorepoint getters will keep getting own goals and red cards while ruining the CS bonus of my 2 bus utd defenders and that carzola falls on his arse so that my captain sanchez do not get a scorepoint, all this random stuff is exactly random. stuff happens and then this thread builds some narratives
Last edited by fanerio; 11-24-2015 at 08:27 AM.
11-24-2015
, 08:20 AM
11-24-2015
, 08:48 AM
11-24-2015
, 08:53 AM
Quote:
No problem. As a game progresses the odds that rely on a goal being scored decay as there's less chance of it happening as time passes. In this instance the odds for over 2.5 goals were shortening as time passed despite it still being 0-0. Over 2.5 touched 1.04 in play (96% chance) at 0-0 between sides in 10th and 11th in the same division which is madness.
The away sides odds of 1.3 (around 77% chance) to be winning at HT were following a similar pattern in that they were shortening as time decayed. The market was saying that there was a 77% chance of the away side winning the first half with 11 mins to go with the scoreline at 0-0. That's clearly miles off. The away side were 7/1 underdogs pre match as well. You then notice that the home side are 1.68 (60%) to win the match despite the assumption that they're about to fall behind, again miles off. At this point it's becoming clear that the game has been rigged for the home side to fall behind before HT and to come back to win in the 2nd half. In fact the away sides odds to win at HT never went above evens and that was at 44 mins. Once the away side scored on the stroke of HT, that was the confirmation that something dodgy was taking place.
This wasn't top flight Greek football and there was large money piling on these events happening, that was probably the biggest giveaway.
The away sides odds of 1.3 (around 77% chance) to be winning at HT were following a similar pattern in that they were shortening as time decayed. The market was saying that there was a 77% chance of the away side winning the first half with 11 mins to go with the scoreline at 0-0. That's clearly miles off. The away side were 7/1 underdogs pre match as well. You then notice that the home side are 1.68 (60%) to win the match despite the assumption that they're about to fall behind, again miles off. At this point it's becoming clear that the game has been rigged for the home side to fall behind before HT and to come back to win in the 2nd half. In fact the away sides odds to win at HT never went above evens and that was at 44 mins. Once the away side scored on the stroke of HT, that was the confirmation that something dodgy was taking place.
This wasn't top flight Greek football and there was large money piling on these events happening, that was probably the biggest giveaway.
impressive! Nj! Right, how often do footballers go out on the lash iyo? (Average)...grealish got drunk Saturday and all villa fans are furious about it but I can't help but think who cares, every footballer does it
11-24-2015
, 09:40 AM
As more and more foreign players come to England, I'd expect the percentage that go out drinking heavily each weekend to reduce as well. They're professional athletes and he's almost certainly getting paid handsomely to play for a team that has five points after 13 games. I can understand why those that pay his wages might not be best pleased.
11-24-2015
, 09:42 AM
