Quote:
Originally Posted by Consty
There's a fixed match going on currently in Greece. Over 2.5 1.35 with the game 0-0 after 34 mins and the away side 1.3 to be winning at HT. The home side Kissamikos are 1.68 to win the match though.
Kissamikos vs Ergotelis
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burnss
ELI5 please. (if you get a spare 5 mins, no bother if youre busy)
No problem. As a game progresses the odds that rely on a goal being scored decay as there's less chance of it happening as time passes. In this instance the odds for over 2.5 goals were shortening as time passed despite it still being 0-0. Over 2.5 touched 1.04 in play (96% chance) at 0-0 between sides in 10th and 11th in the same division which is madness.
The away sides odds of 1.3 (around 77% chance) to be winning at HT were following a similar pattern in that they were shortening as time decayed. The market was saying that there was a 77% chance of the away side winning the first half with 11 mins to go with the scoreline at 0-0. That's clearly miles off. The away side were 7/1 underdogs pre match as well. You then notice that the home side are 1.68 (60%) to win the match despite the assumption that they're about to fall behind, again miles off. At this point it's becoming clear that the game has been rigged for the home side to fall behind before HT and to come back to win in the 2nd half. In fact the away sides odds to win at HT never went above evens and that was at 44 mins. Once the away side scored on the stroke of HT, that was the confirmation that something dodgy was taking place.
This wasn't top flight Greek football and there was large money piling on these events happening, that was probably the biggest giveaway.