English Football 2015-16 - Leicester City won the league - Page 680 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

I dunno, Palace is really interesting. Their match vs Plop should be a fun one to watch ..... if Plop can successfully press Cabaye and Puncheon you think they'd smother them .... if they don't then all those "super fast guys" will be running at Mignolet all day.

11-07-2015 , 09:15 AM

#16977

Consty

resident wizard

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 10,134

Eddie Howe's been reading this thread too much and has bought into the goalkeepers don't matter narrative. He has two absolute clowns at his disposal.

11-07-2015 , 09:16 AM

#16978

fanerio

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 8,718

yeah but all the times that the cross is not reached counts as 0.0 xG which is obv not true and that happens more often for palace than for other teams

11-07-2015 , 09:18 AM

#16979

joejoe1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 16,215

Quote:

Originally Posted by Consty

Eddie Howe's been reading this thread too much and has bought into the goalkeepers don't matter narrative. He has two absolute clowns at his disposal.

One howler against Arsenal, I think he was pretty good for Southampton. He has seemed to be considerably worse for B'mouth this though.

11-07-2015 , 09:21 AM

#16980

DuckSauce

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Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 11,754

To add to my post above palaces shots on target ratio is wayyy better than their tsr. This is largely do to defensive shot numbers. They concede a lot of shots but not alot of them are on target. Means they are blocking them well or pressuring shooters into poor shots. Since standard xG doesn't take into account defender position it is a spot where teams that are good at this get underrated.

Most of the teams between the two xG models (caleys and Riley's ) are in similar positions but a couple have huge differences.

11-07-2015 , 09:24 AM

#16981

DuckSauce

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 11,754

Quote:

Originally Posted by fanerio

yeah but all the times that the cross is not reached counts as 0.0 xG which is obv not true and that happens more often for palace than for other teams

This is a large reason fergies last title winning team and some of his other teams grossly over performed xgs. They constantly got into deep dangerous positions and focused on cutbacks which are massively good chances if they get through. It they get blocked they don't count for anything. It's definitely one of the main deficiencies of xG right now besides defender positioning.

11-07-2015 , 09:26 AM

#16982

NicReynolds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,540

Newcastle never holding here, trying to Mourinho this 1-0.

11-07-2015 , 09:29 AM

#16983

royalblue

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 20,554

Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckSauce

I've read Caley say that cutbacks aren't that great because by definition even if you connect, there'll still be a bunch of defenders and probably the keeper between the striker and goal.

Has that changed due to new research or whatever or do you just disagree with him there?

11-07-2015 , 09:35 AM

#16984

DuckSauce

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 11,754

I don't disagree. But the attempts having a value of 0 is significant over time as all those small number would add up to a few extra goals per season. There was a really good article on statsbomb regarding it. The 12/13 mun title winning team has consistently been one of the bigger head scratches in the statistics community as their underlying number were pretty meh.

11-07-2015 , 09:35 AM

#16985

Liverpool

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 7,079

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZAIDS

So are palace good or not? Last we spoke about them they were too 4....

Palace are gonna get Klopped tomorrow

11-07-2015 , 09:41 AM

#16986

fanerio

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 8,718

different animal between transition crosses with scrabbling defenders and little/no midfield cover and what moyes/lvg does with crosses against comfortable defenses

fwiw i do crap on about triangles and how terribad tblitw are forming them

lvgs side is good at it but heres the thing, ideally you want like this:

\/, aka biscuits passing to two of XIM with another making a run or in space elsewhere
not:

/\

aka sideways and backwards zzzzzzz. sterile football-boner killers

11-07-2015 , 09:52 AM

#16987

NicReynolds

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Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,540

Newcastle are lucky Villa and Sunderland exist.

11-07-2015 , 09:53 AM

#16988

fanerio

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 8,718

lolllllllllllllll

11-07-2015 , 09:54 AM

#16989

fanerio

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 8,718

narrative suggests this will be a comfortable 2-0 scoreline

11-07-2015 , 10:01 AM

#16990

raheem

temp-banned

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 2,235

Klopp a real one tbf.

11-07-2015 , 10:03 AM

#16991

EnglishLad72

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 26,654

Of course Lee Mason doesn't book Perez for diving

11-07-2015 , 10:05 AM

#16992

NicReynolds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 10,540

Lol at this swap from mcclaren. Changes nothing.

11-07-2015 , 10:36 AM

#16993

xXDeuce7Xx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 10,837

United-WBA u2.5 goals is 1.95 on pinnacle. What am I missing?

11-07-2015 , 10:38 AM

#16994

MindFckr

Classic Arsenal GHW

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 25,609

Quote:

Originally Posted by xXDeuce7Xx

United-WBA u2.5 goals is 1.95 on pinnacle. What am I missing?

Already on it.

Really important win for Newcastle

Maybe after today we can start calling Klopp "The Employed One"

11-07-2015 , 10:38 AM

#16995

JoeDiego

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,820

I know they've had significant injuries, but man Bournemouth are terrible. Newcastle and Aston Villa have both won there.

11-07-2015 , 10:39 AM

#16996

TehVader

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 17,584

Feel bad for Bournemouth, this has to be the worst game ever that turned into a win

11-07-2015 , 10:40 AM

#16997

TehVader

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 17,584

Someone post the xG graph from this game, should be hilarious reading

11-07-2015 , 10:41 AM

#16998

Oxygen

adept

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 924

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeDiego

I know they've had significant injuries, but man Bournemouth are terrible. Newcastle and Aston Villa have both won there.

In both those games the visting team was outplayed. Not denying that Bournemouth aren't up to it (particularly after the injuries) but they've been pretty unlucky in quite a few games.

11-07-2015 , 10:41 AM

#16999

JoeDiego

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,820

Quote:

Originally Posted by xXDeuce7Xx

United-WBA u2.5 goals is 1.95 on pinnacle. What am I missing?

I don't do anything but fractional odds, is that like 19/20?

11-07-2015 , 10:44 AM

#17000

JoeDiego

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,820

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oxygen

In both those games the visting team was outplayed. Not denying that Bournemouth aren't up to it (particularly after the injuries) but they've been pretty unlucky in quite a few games.

Trouble is they seem to be 'unlucky' in almost all their games. Losing Wilson was killer just when it looked like they'd found a 15 goal striker. Their wins came vs Pre-Big Sam Sunderland and that bizarre game at West Ham when Wilson got a hat-trick. They're as dead and buried as any team I can remember since that one Derby season.

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