depends on whether the random guy on the internet has a masters

You're right for the most part but odds can shift a lot from the time a market is open, right up to kick off.

Like Arsenal are 1.7 currently, if Kos and Ozil start that price will probably be 1.6 at kick off.

A single example out of many.
Also, not all random guys are equal.
Bookies' goal is to make the largest profit not to set the exact correct odds.

conventional wisdom (ie der markt) is bound to be flawed at times.

as examples, batting average was wildly overrated as an indication of player ability in baseball for many decades, which certainly resulted in many mispricings. there was also basketball season a while ago where der markt failed to take into account the effect that a shortened preseason (i think due to a possible players strike or something) would have on scoring totals (loads of games in the early part of the season were notably low scoring).

i would be bold enough to suggest that the effect (lack thereof) of managerial changes will belong on this list soon, except for the fact that der markt already figured this out

Bookies are better than the suckers on this board who book bets with me but still have to adjust to the homer money. I'd estimate laying Us, Utd and Arsenal all season will show a profit most years.

i doubt they can make meaningful adjustments for homer money, sharps would just flay them alive

it might be that laying top 4 would lose slightly less money than other lay person strats but i would be shocked if it was profitable

with the cloud, knowledge management and business intelligence in general being as big as ever nowadays i wonder how there isn't massive database of betting history that you could filter using a software say tableau or mathlab for example to try to figure some patterns as to what bets have been the most/least profitable over a decent sample. supposedly the bookies dont want that sort of information to be available to the people but its the internet everything can be done like even the fat pub bloke that I am could keep a spreadsheet track odds shift over the week and compare it to the results.

would love to play around with that and that could help to try to answer some of the questions asked in the last few posts

But surely they get this information way before anybody else? And very very quickly adjust?

Football-data.co.uk has bet365 prices for the last 5 seasons iirc. I'd be interested to know the flat stakes ROI on laying Liverpool, Arsenal and Utd. BAIDS is almost certainly correct but I'd like to see it if anyone can be arsed.

I like palace +700 @ Stamford Bridge . Dicksauuceee has risen.

Nope, not really. Social media has closed the gap a lot. An example would be Arsenal v Pool on Monday. Arsenal price was around 1.77. As soon as the team sheet was released on Twitter the price spiked out to 1.84.

For the most part a decent bookmaker like Pinnacle will set the opening odds but are then guided by their shrewd customers as to where the price should be, that's when they'll start increasing their liability. As someone mentioned, bookmakers are more interested in balancing their books more than anything.

damn Babel spitting some hot fire

Woooooosh

Yeah but we are talking at least a dozen random internet guys all wanking each other off about analytics.

Bookies don't stand a chance.

remember when der market had spurs as likely to get top4 as arsenal?
ah good times

What century was that?

This site has some info relating to this: http://www.soccerwidow.com. Not sure if it has stats etc. on individual teams but there's some stuff on betting Home/Away:

These are all whilst betting the same number of units on each game;

e.g. http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-...stem-underdog/ -- Betting every away game in the bundesliga from 2010-2015 would yield an ROI of 5.6% -


However betting all away favourites over that time would be -EV, whilst betting just on away dogs with odds of >=4.40 to <=17.00 yielded an ROI of 28% -


Fwiw I'm not sure why they didn't include that dip at the end (at odds of 24.00) but it'd still show a nice roi with that included afaict.


There's also this regarding betting on all home games in the PL from 2006-2011 (old so perhaps irrelevant but still interesting) - http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-...matic-betting/.
If you'd bet on all home games in that time (again, with the same number of units per game) you'd have an ROI of 6.99% -



Conversely, in the PL if you'd bet on every away game in that time you wudda lost money in every of those 5 seasons and ended with an ROI of -18% -


Apologies if links/images don't work; haven't posted much in a while.

Of course Soldado scores in his first game for Villareal, and then gets two assists and a goal in his second game..

I'm happy for him!

good stuff. thanks

in b4 spurs buy him back again

Sanchez anytime scorer at 5/4 is a **** bet right?


I've already bet it lol

It's 2.7 on the exchange.

That doesn't sound good

I hope you all enjoyed tonight's preview of the biggest local derby in League 1 next season.

Impact should be negligible given that he is worse than the hapless coutinho.