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Old 08-28-2015, 03:03 PM   #7326
BAIDS
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Re: English Football 2015-16

depends on whether the random guy on the internet has a masters
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Old 08-28-2015, 03:04 PM   #7327
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Re: English Football 2015-16

You're right for the most part but odds can shift a lot from the time a market is open, right up to kick off.

Like Arsenal are 1.7 currently, if Kos and Ozil start that price will probably be 1.6 at kick off.
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Old 08-28-2015, 03:12 PM   #7328
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by Consty View Post
You're right for the most part but odds can shift a lot from the time a market is open, right up to kick off.

Like Arsenal are 1.7 currently, if Kos and Ozil start that price will probably be 1.6 at kick off.
A single example out of many.
Also, not all random guys are equal.
Bookies' goal is to make the largest profit not to set the exact correct odds.
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Old 08-28-2015, 03:12 PM   #7329
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Re: English Football 2015-16

conventional wisdom (ie der markt) is bound to be flawed at times.

as examples, batting average was wildly overrated as an indication of player ability in baseball for many decades, which certainly resulted in many mispricings. there was also basketball season a while ago where der markt failed to take into account the effect that a shortened preseason (i think due to a possible players strike or something) would have on scoring totals (loads of games in the early part of the season were notably low scoring).

i would be bold enough to suggest that the effect (lack thereof) of managerial changes will belong on this list soon, except for the fact that der markt already figured this out
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Old 08-28-2015, 03:13 PM   #7330
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Originally Posted by GungaDin View Post
How can you say someone is under rated/over rated. Surely the bookies know this and adjust accordingly?? I don't understand? Surely they're way way smarter than one random guy on the internet?

Just asking, I don't know anything about how bookies operate.
Bookies are better than the suckers on this board who book bets with me but still have to adjust to the homer money. I'd estimate laying Us, Utd and Arsenal all season will show a profit most years.
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Old 08-28-2015, 03:14 PM   #7331
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Re: English Football 2015-16

i doubt they can make meaningful adjustments for homer money, sharps would just flay them alive

it might be that laying top 4 would lose slightly less money than other lay person strats but i would be shocked if it was profitable
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Old 08-28-2015, 03:25 PM   #7332
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Re: English Football 2015-16

with the cloud, knowledge management and business intelligence in general being as big as ever nowadays i wonder how there isn't massive database of betting history that you could filter using a software say tableau or mathlab for example to try to figure some patterns as to what bets have been the most/least profitable over a decent sample. supposedly the bookies dont want that sort of information to be available to the people but its the internet everything can be done like even the fat pub bloke that I am could keep a spreadsheet track odds shift over the week and compare it to the results.

would love to play around with that and that could help to try to answer some of the questions asked in the last few posts
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Old 08-28-2015, 03:40 PM   #7333
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by Consty View Post
You're right for the most part but odds can shift a lot from the time a market is open, right up to kick off.

Like Arsenal are 1.7 currently, if Kos and Ozil start that price will probably be 1.6 at kick off.
But surely they get this information way before anybody else? And very very quickly adjust?
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Old 08-28-2015, 03:40 PM   #7334
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Football-data.co.uk has bet365 prices for the last 5 seasons iirc. I'd be interested to know the flat stakes ROI on laying Liverpool, Arsenal and Utd. BAIDS is almost certainly correct but I'd like to see it if anyone can be arsed.

Last edited by NicReynolds; 08-28-2015 at 03:46 PM.
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Old 08-28-2015, 03:55 PM   #7335
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Re: English Football 2015-16

I like palace +700 @ Stamford Bridge . Dicksauuceee has risen.
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Old 08-28-2015, 03:58 PM   #7336
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by GungaDin View Post
But surely they get this information way before anybody else? And very very quickly adjust?
Nope, not really. Social media has closed the gap a lot. An example would be Arsenal v Pool on Monday. Arsenal price was around 1.77. As soon as the team sheet was released on Twitter the price spiked out to 1.84.

For the most part a decent bookmaker like Pinnacle will set the opening odds but are then guided by their shrewd customers as to where the price should be, that's when they'll start increasing their liability. As someone mentioned, bookmakers are more interested in balancing their books more than anything.
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Old 08-28-2015, 04:53 PM   #7337
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Re: English Football 2015-16

damn Babel spitting some hot fire

Spoiler:

Last edited by Cinarocket; 08-28-2015 at 05:02 PM.
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:01 PM   #7338
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Woooooosh
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:08 PM   #7339
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by GungaDin View Post
Surely they're way way smarter than one random guy on the internet?
Yeah but we are talking at least a dozen random internet guys all wanking each other off about analytics.

Bookies don't stand a chance.
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:08 PM   #7340
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Re: English Football 2015-16

remember when der market had spurs as likely to get top4 as arsenal?
ah good times
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:25 PM   #7341
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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remember when der market had spurs as likely to get top4 as arsenal?
ah good times
What century was that?
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:32 PM   #7342
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by NicReynolds View Post
Football-data.co.uk has bet365 prices for the last 5 seasons iirc. I'd be interested to know the flat stakes ROI on laying Liverpool, Arsenal and Utd. BAIDS is almost certainly correct but I'd like to see it if anyone can be arsed.
This site has some info relating to this: http://www.soccerwidow.com. Not sure if it has stats etc. on individual teams but there's some stuff on betting Home/Away:

These are all whilst betting the same number of units on each game;

e.g. http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-...stem-underdog/ -- Betting every away game in the bundesliga from 2010-2015 would yield an ROI of 5.6% -


However betting all away favourites over that time would be -EV, whilst betting just on away dogs with odds of >=4.40 to <=17.00 yielded an ROI of 28% -


Fwiw I'm not sure why they didn't include that dip at the end (at odds of 24.00) but it'd still show a nice roi with that included afaict.


There's also this regarding betting on all home games in the PL from 2006-2011 (old so perhaps irrelevant but still interesting) - http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-...matic-betting/.
If you'd bet on all home games in that time (again, with the same number of units per game) you'd have an ROI of 6.99% -



Conversely, in the PL if you'd bet on every away game in that time you wudda lost money in every of those 5 seasons and ended with an ROI of -18% -


Apologies if links/images don't work; haven't posted much in a while.
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:38 PM   #7343
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Of course Soldado scores in his first game for Villareal, and then gets two assists and a goal in his second game..

I'm happy for him!
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:38 PM   #7344
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Re: English Football 2015-16

good stuff. thanks
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:43 PM   #7345
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Re: English Football 2015-16

in b4 spurs buy him back again
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:52 PM   #7346
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Sanchez anytime scorer at 5/4 is a **** bet right?


I've already bet it lol
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Old 08-28-2015, 05:58 PM   #7347
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Re: English Football 2015-16

It's 2.7 on the exchange.
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Old 08-28-2015, 06:00 PM   #7348
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Originally Posted by theshocker7 View Post
Sanchez anytime scorer at 5/4 is a **** bet right?


I've already bet it lol
That doesn't sound good
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Old 08-28-2015, 06:04 PM   #7349
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Re: English Football 2015-16

I hope you all enjoyed tonight's preview of the biggest local derby in League 1 next season.
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Old 08-28-2015, 06:50 PM   #7350
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by NicReynolds View Post
No Erikson = pub team spurs
Impact should be negligible given that he is worse than the hapless coutinho.
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