Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337
Bit of a newb about this, but does it disproportionately reward the same guy when he binks a half way line shot?
i really dont know anything about it other than the basic premise, but no. or at least, it seeks not to.
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for the people that dont get it yet, i'll have another try:
the reason messi is >>>>> vela is because when vela gets the ball on the edge of the D he turns and takes a 0.1 xG shot, ie a shot which will result in a goal 10% of the time on average. vela, as we know from the $tat$, will convert that chance a bit more than xG would predict, so it'll go in ~11% of the time
messi gets the ball on the edge of the D, puts on his floppy blue wizard hat with yellow stars, does some sort of congolese ju-ju on the back 4, ends up 1 on 1 with the keeper and takes a 0.8 xG shot. messi converts even more often than xG predicts, so lets say it'll go in ~85% of the time.
the amount the two will convert their respective chances relative to what xG expects is not too different, yet messi scores way more often due to his ju-ju.
so hopefully i have demonstrated that two players can be quite close in terms of performance vs xG and yet miles apart in terms of production/value/talent and so on