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Old 08-20-2015, 02:08 PM   #5826
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by heh View Post
Right or wrong, I am actually not convinced that Liverpool is going in for a drubbing at Emirates.

Losing by one or a draw if you ask me.
I sort of agree. They look far more robust at the back now Brent has full backs that actually bother defending. That being said, I still think Arsenal will be too much for them.
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Old 08-20-2015, 02:20 PM   #5827
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Re: English Football 2015-16

No way we come away with a point, will be lucky to hold it to four.

My prediction:

Liverpool 0 - 7 Arsenal (Henry: '14, '15, '48. Arshavin: '85, '86, '87, '88)
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Old 08-20-2015, 02:25 PM   #5828
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Any plop fans (or anyone for that matter) want Plop top 4?

Looking to lay $3k on it, escrow will be required.
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Old 08-20-2015, 02:34 PM   #5829
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Re: English Football 2015-16

At what odds are you thinking?
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Old 08-20-2015, 02:39 PM   #5830
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Old 08-20-2015, 03:53 PM   #5831
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Re: English Football 2015-16

In GRATE news for EPL watching, no longer working weekends. Although I'm sure my wife will want to spend those days "as a family" and "we need to do things with the baby".. quiet please, i'm going to start drinking at 9am.
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Old 08-20-2015, 04:38 PM   #5832
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Is working weekends standard? Seems a little ott.
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Old 08-20-2015, 04:40 PM   #5833
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Re: English Football 2015-16

I figure half the people here will love it, half will hate it but this is a fascinating chart imo.

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Old 08-20-2015, 04:43 PM   #5834
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by BertieWooster View Post
Is working weekends standard? Seems a little ott.
yanks have to work themselves close to death so that they can afford to not die if they develop a serious medical complaint
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Old 08-20-2015, 04:45 PM   #5835
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
I figure half the people here will love it, half will hate it but this is a fascinating chart imo.

If it were somehow weighted according to importance, Higuaín would be miles off that list.
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Old 08-20-2015, 04:45 PM   #5836
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Re: English Football 2015-16

This a good opportunity for me to ask. Can someone explain the basics of xG? What is it. What is it good for. Etc.

Tx in advance
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Old 08-20-2015, 04:50 PM   #5837
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Either last weekend or two weekends ago I posted every stat that goes into the calculation. I'll try to find it again, but it's basically a stat that takes into account where a shot is taken, how it is taken (cross vs pull back, where the pass is coming from, header vs strong foot) and a bunch of other stuff (counter vs non) and weighs that vs other similar situations and gives a number on how likely that shot would result in a goal.

So, a shot that is from a counter taken from 6' out might be worth .6 "expected goals" or w/e.

That chart above is players they have at least 600 shots worth of data of over the last number of years and who scores more goals than expected given the shots they take. Obviously in such a model some players (the good ones) will out perform it, while the worse ones underperform.

Edit: The data for the two charts is for between 09-14.

I'm very curious where Giroud falls under here. He is very, very bad at scoring "big chances" but pretty good at scoring tougher ones.

mc of A just posted the bottom 20....It's pretty sick that City can still score 100 goals with 2 of their starters being some of the biggest underperformers in xG.

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Old 08-20-2015, 04:57 PM   #5838
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Re: English Football 2015-16

<3
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:07 PM   #5839
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
I'm very curious where Giroud falls under here. He is very, very bad at scoring "big chances" but pretty good at scoring tougher ones.
not really
he attempts a high percentage of low equity shots though which is why his shots/goal ratio has always been fairly high and people misinterpreted it as lack of finishing ability
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:08 PM   #5840
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Would like to see the Torres at Chelsea stats.
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:09 PM   #5841
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Originally Posted by cashy View Post
not really
he attempts a high percentage of low equity shots
He is selfish player?
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:13 PM   #5842
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by cashy View Post
not really
he attempts a high percentage of low equity shots though which is why his shots/goal ratio has always been fairly high and people misinterpreted it as lack of finishing ability
Wait, are you talking about Giroud or Cristiano's fk's/random long range shots? :-)

Damn, oafk beat me to it
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:13 PM   #5843
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by O.A.F.K.1.1 View Post
He is selfish player?

nobody said that he is taking low equity attempts instead of much higher equity passes

easy example:
corner, rebound and you stand 35 yards away from goal with multiple bodies in the way.
taking low equity shot very often the correct thing to do there anyway because turn-over would result in massive counter-attacking opportunity for opponent.

giroud usually takes low equity attempts when isolated up top alone and the equity difference between just recycling possession probably marginal at best a lot of the times
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:18 PM   #5844
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Cashy, my point was mainly that of all good strikers in top leagues, no one misses "big chances" or chances with a high xG, more than Giroud. I was curious how much him scoring goals with less likelihood like his opener last weekend made up for it.
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:22 PM   #5845
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Re: English Football 2015-16

My guess would be it's pretty bad.
Playing for a good team should usually net a striker good chances more often than not.
Would probably be a better choice for a worse team.
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:26 PM   #5846
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by PNHH View Post
If it were somehow weighted according to importance, Higuaín would be miles off that list.
not sure if you're serious or not but weighing by importance is probably the worst you can do with any stat.
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:27 PM   #5847
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
I figure half the people here will love it, half will hate it but this is a fascinating chart imo.

sauce (my googling didn't work, but my internet is a pos today, so I didn't have much patience)?

Suarez?
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:29 PM   #5848
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by MirZolzayn View Post
Would probably be a better choice for a worse team.
exactly the opposite
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:31 PM   #5849
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Re: English Football 2015-16

I listed it in the second reply, it's from @MC_of_A.

Remember, Suarez was REALLY bad at finishing his first season at Pool. He also took a lot of shots from like 40 yards out and while they went in vs Norwich, they usually didn't.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MirZolzayn View Post
My guess would be it's pretty bad.
Playing for a good team should usually net a striker good chances more often than not.
Would probably be a better choice for a worse team.
As cashy said, Giroud wouldn't be as good in a team that gives him no service and gives him no support.
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Old 08-20-2015, 05:32 PM   #5850
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by cashy View Post
exactly the opposite
Explain sir
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