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Old 08-09-2015, 05:41 PM   #4051
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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Originally Posted by FeralCreature View Post
This is like when spiritual people complain about how scientists trying to explain how things work takes the magic out of them or if atheists are able to enjoy a sunset.
What is this?
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Old 08-09-2015, 05:43 PM   #4052
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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2 0, LICK MY HAIRY NUTSACK YOU GOON ****S.
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Arse lead the Sklansky points table.
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Old 08-09-2015, 05:43 PM   #4053
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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lol cech
lets not forget lol "tibsy"
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Old 08-09-2015, 05:44 PM   #4054
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Re: English Football 2015/16

lol
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Old 08-09-2015, 05:49 PM   #4055
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Re: English Football 2015/16

it won't get noticed because of cech's awful performance but coquelin played everyone onside on the 1st goal and gave the ball away for the 2nd ?

in coq we trust
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Old 08-09-2015, 05:49 PM   #4056
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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lets not forget lol "tibsy"
Tibs was fine, going to blame defence that lets swans in time and time again.


baids, lol.
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Old 08-09-2015, 05:49 PM   #4057
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Re: English Football 2015/16

and sure enough BBC is doing a feature about how awesome the 16 years old kid is
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Old 08-09-2015, 05:51 PM   #4058
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Looks like Ducksauce just got burnt on twitter
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Old 08-09-2015, 05:54 PM   #4059
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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Originally Posted by BertieWooster View Post


OAFK and a few others on fine form today, good posting all round
Thanks man

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World class BANTR. is Colin ducksauce?
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Old 08-09-2015, 05:58 PM   #4060
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Viz is fantastic, more humour in one issue than most broadsheet "humorists" put out in their whole careers
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:07 PM   #4061
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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Originally Posted by Burnss View Post
ikes and thechef for worst posters of the year. such a lock.
To be clear, I have absolutely no problem with xG. It is an extremely illuminating metric with a lot of predictive power. The basis of the model is that shots are treated as random events with a probability distribution. No problem with that.

What seems to be happening is that some people are so wrapped up in this mode of thinking that they think that shots actually ARE random events. That's simply not the case in any meaningful sense. In reality, the execution of a good shot requires skill. It is not at all akin to, say, rolling a die. If you play a game where you have two throws of a 10-sided die and you need to throw a 2 twice in a row to win £1,000,000, then you can consider yourself lucky if you win this game. You have no influence over the outcome and the likelihood of winning is 1%, which is slim. If you're Philippe Coutinho shooting from 30 yards and you ping the ball into the top corner when xG model says that situation yields a goal 1% of the time, the conclusion is that you have executed a ****ing great goal. It's a weird definition of lucky that includes accomplishing exactly what you aimed to achieve.

Now, either you can tell me why you think this is wrong, or you can carry on sniping without adding anything of substance. Maybe if I can do the same I might become a better poster
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:13 PM   #4062
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Time for some TL;DR Liverpool Tactical Ramblings!

Rodgers has a tactical dilemma at the moment:

(1) Coutinho is at his best when he's part of the midfield rather than one of three advanced attackers (behind Sterling Suarez Sturridge in the diamond for example)

(2) Henderson is far more effective when he has license to get forward as opposed to being part of a restrictive double-pivot

(3) Milner has been promised a regular central midfield role, and he isn't a holding mid

Only two of these three things can be accommodated at once.

-If Phil plays at the tip of the midfield triangle: Milner and Hendo are forced to form the ineffective double-pivot we saw today.

-If a defensive anchor is inserted: Milner and Hendo should thrive, but Phil will bump forward and displace one of the two wide attackers.

-If Phil drops back to join Hendo in front of a DM: Milner either pushes out wide or goes to the bench (two places he was told he wouldn't be if he signed here).

These are, in my opinion, Rodgers' three most palatable options as things stand:

1. Diamond:

Benteke-Firmino
------Phil--------
Milner----Hendo
-------Can-----

Rodgers often struggles to put out a balanced team but hopefully he learned a lesson today. I like the width provided by Ibe, and he'll continue to get game time. But his final ball hasn't come to fruition yet, and for me at least it doesn't appear to be right around the corner either. Right now there isn't a lot of product to show for his aesthetically pleasing forays.

2. 4-3-3:

Firmino-Benteke-Milner
-----Phil------Hendo----
---------Lucas-----------

Milner won't love it, but you tell him that (A) he'll get plenty of opportunities to play CM between change-of-shape during the games and four competitions, and (B) it's a long season and things evolve. He isn't as electric as Ibe but his vision and delivery are light years ahead. We need those things from that position if we intend to persist with a 433 while Benteke beds in. I trust Milner more defensively at this stage as well. (Even if this isn't a formation we begin games with, it's a Plan B that I'd like to see in our arsenal).

3. Diamond v 2.0:

Benteke-Firmino
-----Hendo------
Phil-------Milner
------Lucas-----

A little counterintuitive because it seems like Phil and Hendo should be reversed on the CM----->AM spectrum. And it does make us a little more lightweight in the middle of the park (and towards the Gomez/Moreno side to boot), hence the inclusion of Lucas instead of the more ambitious Can. It also means Jordan will need to improve his poise in front of goal. On the plus side Hendo is one of our more energetic pressers and would be in a fine place to harass opposing DLPs.

Thoughts?
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:14 PM   #4063
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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Originally Posted by t3hbandit View Post
They'd be legit if they didnt have Adam and Whelan in CM. Spurs/Everton should have been all over Nzonzi for 7m.
Leicester bid 7m and it was rejected. Assume an English club would have had to pay a solid bit more.
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:14 PM   #4064
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
Originally Posted by thechef View Post
To be clear, I have absolutely no problem with xG. It is an extremely illuminating metric with a lot of predictive power. The basis of the model is that shots are treated as random events with a probability distribution. No problem with that.

What seems to be happening is that some people are so wrapped up in this mode of thinking that they think that shots actually ARE random events. That's simply not the case in any meaningful sense. In reality, the execution of a good shot requires skill. It is not at all akin to, say, rolling a die. If you play a game where you have two throws of a 10-sided die and you need to throw a 2 twice in a row to win £1,000,000, then you can consider yourself lucky if you win this game. You have no influence over the outcome and the likelihood of winning is 1%, which is slim. If you're Philippe Coutinho shooting from 30 yards and you ping the ball into the top corner when xG model says that situation yields a goal 1% of the time, the conclusion is that you have executed a ****ing great goal. It's a weird definition of lucky that includes accomplishing exactly what you aimed to achieve.

Now, either you can tell me why you think this is wrong, or you can carry on sniping without adding anything of substance. Maybe if I can do the same I might become a better poster

Does the model not update its base rate assumptions based on who the player is? So that a random in the league (or wherever the data is drawn) might have 1%, whereas he has maybe 10% or whatever.
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:16 PM   #4065
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Re: English Football 2015/16

thechef GOAT
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:22 PM   #4066
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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Originally Posted by BertieWooster View Post
Viz is fantastic, more humour in one issue than most broadsheet "humorists" put out in their whole careers
correct, although they're clearly not as good as they used to be. their twatter feed is also glorious

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love that the backdrop to that page is some hillsborough justice thing saying don't buy the sun. excellent grudge holding there
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:30 PM   #4067
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Re: English Football 2015/16

why is the dice roller not considered a great dice roller

if he rolls the dice very slightly more forcefully he doesn't hit the double 2s, so of course he has influence over the outcome

xD model would imply that he has only a 1% chance of binking, but he pulled off a great pair of rolls and we have to give him credit for that
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:31 PM   #4068
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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Does the model not update its base rate assumptions based on who the player is? So that a random in the league (or wherever the data is drawn) might have 1%, whereas he has maybe 10% or whatever.
Short answer? No. In general players further up the pitch tend to outperform their xG as a rule of thumb.
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:32 PM   #4069
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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Originally Posted by PNHH View Post
Does the model not update its base rate assumptions based on who the player is? So that a random in the league (or wherever the data is drawn) might have 1%, whereas he has maybe 10% or whatever.
I don't believe that it does although I will stand corrected if somebody who knows more about it chimes in.

How is that relevant though even if somehow we knew for sure that Philippe Coutinho's individual probability of scoring in that precise scenario is 10%? To put it another way, if Dejan Lovren found himself in the exact spot and pulled the trigger with 1% probability of scoring according to xG, would he be luckier than Philippe Coutinho if he scored?
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:34 PM   #4070
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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Originally Posted by heh View Post
I think it's going to be a bad outing for a lot of teams playing away to a lot of teams this season.
Fixed, IMO.

(I would have also put a line through "away to" if I wasn't forum-illiterate)

I don't know if the final numbers/table will bear it out or not, but anecdotally I feel like the middle class teams are as good as I've ever seen them relative to the big boys. There are players all over the place who can hurt you. They may have flaws in their game that will keep them out of the biggest sides in England, but on their day they can skin you (Shelvey, Ayew, Bolaise, Kouyate, Adam, Ki, Cabaye, Sigurdson, Tadic, Mare, Valencia, just to name a few off the top of my head). Personally I don't think the big teams have anything to feel lousy about this weekend. A lot of teams are gonna have their hands full against Swansea, and Stoke, and West Ham this year...
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:40 PM   #4071
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
Originally Posted by BAIDS View Post
why is the dice roller not considered a great dice roller

if he rolls the dice very slightly more forcefully he doesn't hit the double 2s, so of course he has influence over the outcome

xD model would imply that he has only a 1% chance of binking, but he pulled off a great pair of rolls and we have to give him credit for that
Quoting because your effort deserves to be acknowledged
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:42 PM   #4072
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Re: English Football 2015/16

remember when suarez only scored about 10 goals in his second pool season cos he kept beating the entire defense single handedly, got 1-on-1 with the keeper, but then hit the post. this happened about a million times. are we to conclude he was unlucky over that period? or that he was playing poorly?

i feel the first conclusion is more satisfactory

might be worth pointing out that there were a few people here that decided he was just a crap finisher, and not best played in the striker position for that reason
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:43 PM   #4073
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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Originally Posted by DuckSauce View Post
I really like this guy... but it's going to be misused lol.
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:44 PM   #4074
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Re: English Football 2015/16

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Originally Posted by BAIDS View Post
remember when suarez only scored about 10 goals in his second pool season cos he kept beating the entire defense single handedly, got 1-on-1 with the keeper, but then hit the post. this happened about a million times. are we to conclude he was unlucky over that period? or that he was playing poorly?

i feel the first conclusion is more satisfactory
agreed, i think pool broke the record for most woodwork in a season that year.
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Old 08-09-2015, 06:45 PM   #4075
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Re: English Football 2015/16

though, i think you can conclude he was at least slightly worse.
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