English Football 2015-16 - Leicester City won the league - Page 1396 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

The cut off for their data was the end of the group stage, so for analysis purposes all teams are "eliminated" at the same stage. There is no over/under representation.

no

random section of data:

you'll note that hull, villa and RANDERS FC (?) are contributing 3 or 4 games to the pre-KO column and 30+ games to the post-KO column, unlike more successful teams which get through the qualifying rounds and contribute about half of their league games to each column. this phenomenon is repeated throughout and is skewing the results.

again, what the data shows is that barca collects more league points per game than RANDERS FC et al.

pls cite BAIDS OFF OF 2P2 when you publish the refutation of this paper

03-07-2016 , 06:13 AM

#34878

BAIDS

2013 FA Cup winner

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 32,645

btw this explains the disparity seen here:

there are way more EL qualifying games vs CL qualifying games, so there are way more EL teams in the data who didn't get through the first couple of qualifying rounds and who therefore contribute most of their games to the post-KO column. these teams tend to be ****.

this means that **** teams being overrepresented in the data is more powerful effect in the EL section of the data, which is why they reach the nonsense theory that its superbad for your league performance (-0.10 ppg) if you get KO'd from the EL.

note that the effect is also present in the CL data, it's just not quite as powerful.

03-07-2016 , 06:41 AM

#34879

Babalatexi

adept

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 914

To carry on Baids diabloing over ER...

The study ER linked was commissioned by UEFA and made by 2 geographers and 1 doctorate in human studies. But that's not fair so look at the actual study.

Direct quote from the report (p. 6):

"A first possible approach to measure the long-term effect of participation in UEFA club competitions consists of analysing the proportion of teams qualified for the group stage that also qualified for at least the preliminary rounds in the following season. Figure 1 below shows that group stage participation did not prevent the vast majority of clubs from all UEFA national associations from qualifying to UEFA club competitions for the next season."

Amazingly, great teams seem to qualify for European games every season -> EL/CL has no effect on ppg, QED.

You could also of course just look at Pinnacle/SBO odds for games played after EL compared to normal games...

It seems the study has lost its momentum.

03-07-2016 , 07:12 AM

#34880

Ambush

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 6,383

Quote:

Originally Posted by BAIDS

pls cite BAIDS OFF OF 2P2 when you publish the refutation of this paper

03-07-2016 , 07:31 AM

#34881

fanerio

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 8,718

kingweed,

so it follows that the other el team livepool would be 15-25 points better off if we allow that spurs benefit less than the on average 10-15 points u claimed?

03-07-2016 , 07:39 AM

#34882

Elrazor

losing momentum

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,804

Quote:

Originally Posted by BAIDS

"Figure 8: points per match in domestic leagues before and after elimination from UEFA club
competitions"

"This analysis is undertaken on clubs who belong to the 15 best ranked national associations that
were eliminated from all European Cups after the end of the group stage in December of the
six seasons surveyed".

This graph shows the results of teams before and after elimination in December, not what you originally said. So it's just the teams like Hull who go out, not teams like Barca that stay in.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BAIDS

no

random section of data:

you'll note that hull, villa and RANDERS FC (?) are contributing 3 or 4 games to the pre-KO column and 30+ games to the post-KO column

You're wandering off the original point. This data has nothing to do with the graph you originally referred to above.

03-07-2016 , 07:59 AM

#34883

Sugar Nut

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 20,891

So, a study commissioned by UEFA finds that participating in UEFA competitions is not detrimental for a team's domestic performance. Colour me convinced.

03-07-2016 , 08:01 AM

#34884

royalblue

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 20,555

Quote:

Originally Posted by t3hbandit

While I agree it's lol to put reserves out in the EL etc it's only because of the new TV deal that Spurs are the 13th richest club in the world, doubt they'd even have been top 20 for most of the last 3 decades.

Not sure about decades but for the last five years Spurs have been in this "just outside the top 10" position every time according to Deloitte. I'm aware of this bc they've typically been 1-2 places above or below us during that time but now they're pulling away due to btvditw I assume (latest edition: Spurs 12th at 260m revenue, us 13th at 220m).

Usually I lol at english teams not taking the EL seriously but in Spurs' case, it's not in order to make the top four. They're trying to win the damn league. If Schalke are ever in a position to win the league again (we won't be), I'd be glad to prioritise the league and "play the kids" in the EL

03-07-2016 , 08:13 AM

#34885

Sugar Nut

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 20,891

Spurs spend their riches to buy Son for 35mil, so there's that.

03-07-2016 , 08:51 AM

#34886

Elrazor

losing momentum

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,804

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sugar Nut

So, a study commissioned by UEFA finds that participating in UEFA competitions is not detrimental for a team's domestic performance. Colour me convinced.

This was kind of my point. People want "cold, hard data" but even scientists usually have an empirical position they are trying to defend, or find data to support.

Both the studies have methodological weaknesses in how they even approach the question. The controversial Raymond Verheijen basically finds the most easily provable recovery question possible "3-14 days recovery is better than 2 days recovery" and then uses this "finding" as support for his view.

I would guess with the CIES data, they crunched as much data as possible till they found half a dozen significant results that supported their (and UEFA's) view, and wrote it up, while probably ignoring at least as much data that suggested EL/CL did affect league results.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sugar Nut

Spurs spend their riches to buy Son for 35mil, so there's that.

We got Son, Toby and Alli for that.

03-07-2016 , 09:24 AM

#34887

Giroudgeous

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,872

Think he's talking euros, fella

03-07-2016 , 09:29 AM

#34888

BAIDS

2013 FA Cup winner

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 32,645

warning, tldr boring

Spoiler:

03-07-2016 , 09:35 AM

#34889

Elrazor

losing momentum

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,804

Quote:

Originally Posted by BAIDS

warning, tldr boring

Spoiler:

03-07-2016 , 09:38 AM

#34890

BAIDS

2013 FA Cup winner

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 32,645

Spoiler:

Last edited by BAIDS; 03-07-2016 at 09:53 AM.

03-07-2016 , 09:42 AM

#34891

Elrazor

losing momentum

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,804

Dunno then.

Edit: Perhaps ignores when there isn't a league game following/preceding? i.e. International break

03-07-2016 , 09:52 AM

#34892

BAIDS

2013 FA Cup winner

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 32,645

Spoiler:

03-07-2016 , 10:05 AM

#34893

tchaz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 14,832

@BAIDS

Spoiler:

03-07-2016 , 10:07 AM

#34894

BAIDS

2013 FA Cup winner

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 32,645

? pg 24 on

03-07-2016 , 10:14 AM

#34895

LFC_USA

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 21,006

Are League Two games ever televised?

03-07-2016 , 11:13 AM

#34896

tchaz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 14,832

Quote:

Originally Posted by BAIDS

? pg 24 on

that's what I meant

03-07-2016 , 11:19 AM

#34897

Tall Paul

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 9,372

Quote:

Originally Posted by LFC_USA

Are League Two games ever televised?

Yes.

Next one is AFC Wimbledon v Portsmouth on 28th March

03-07-2016 , 11:25 AM

#34898

LFC_USA

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Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 21,006

I've adopted Bristol Rovers as my lower league team after my trip to their ground last season. Was hoping to find some streams of them as the playoff race gets tighter. Thanks