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Old 03-06-2016, 06:29 PM   #34851
joejoe1337
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Re: English Football 2015-16

If people think the above stats aren't accurate, do they have competing stats? Like BAIDS says, I'm not interested in bull**** narratives, just hard data
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Old 03-06-2016, 06:34 PM   #34852
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Mata should be fined a year's wages for that

And of course some guy that hasn't played for West Brom for over a year (and only due to injury, and he's not even a Centre back) sets up the winner
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Old 03-06-2016, 06:37 PM   #34853
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by fanerio View Post
yep that teams spurs would have ~80-90 points without el is definitely a sober unlaughable claim, gjge scientific joey
Without the EL and playing Thursday-Sunday, teams would definitely get more points in the league. It was also on average, so not specifically referring to spurs getting 10-15 more points.

Shown over a decent sample size to be true. The EL is a total burden on a squad throughout the season.
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Old 03-06-2016, 06:47 PM   #34854
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Re: English Football 2015-16

we should start to play the kids in the CL from now on
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Old 03-06-2016, 06:53 PM   #34855
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Re: English Football 2015-16

What's the difference between playing Thursday/Sunday in the EL and playing Wednesday/Saturday in the CL?
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Old 03-06-2016, 06:54 PM   #34856
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Re: English Football 2015-16

I remember when Everton were in the early stages of the Europa the other season, some ****ing clown at the match actually said (with a straight face) we should deliberately tank it so as to maximise our chances of

Spoiler:


Spoiler:
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Old 03-06-2016, 06:54 PM   #34857
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337 View Post
If people think the above stats aren't accurate, do they have competing stats? Like BAIDS says, I'm not interested in bull**** narratives, just hard data
Glad you asked.

Some cliffs:
  • elimination from European Cups does not have a positive impact on results achieved at domestic league
  • teams achieve similar results at domestic league level whether or not UEFA competition fixtures take place within a five-day period
  • report suggests the most #of points gained was after 3 days recovery (Ave. 1.81)

http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/...6_DOWNLOAD.pdf

Bonus question: How many extra points did Spurs gain in the league last season after Kane godmoded in the EL and forced his way in the PL team ahead of Soldado and Ade?

Last edited by Elrazor; 03-06-2016 at 07:03 PM.
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Old 03-06-2016, 06:57 PM   #34858
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by LostOstrich View Post
I remember when Everton were in the early stages of the Europa the other season, some ****ing clown at the match actually said (with a straight face) we should deliberately tank it so as to maximise our chances of

Spoiler:


Spoiler:
lulz

wasn't that a fairly attractive group?
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Old 03-06-2016, 06:58 PM   #34859
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Re: English Football 2015-16

With cech and no el par for arse should be ~ 115 points
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Old 03-06-2016, 07:02 PM   #34860
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cinarocket View Post
Having a look at the fixtures, Leicester have Chelsea (away) as their last game in the league.

Chelsea should have nothing to play for and the thought of letting the title go to one of their London rivals should be enough reason for them to unleash the U15's that day
All set up for Chelsea to fall out of favour as the neutrals second favourite team.

We will probably beat Lestershashire via a goal scored due to utterly horrendous refing, and thus hand the title to Pool.

I think if that happens, fans of other teams might finally turn against us.
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Old 03-06-2016, 07:08 PM   #34861
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by LostOstrich View Post
I remember when Everton were in the early stages of the Europa the other season, some ****ing clown at the match actually said (with a straight face) we should deliberately tank it so as to maximise our chances of

Spoiler:


Spoiler:
that him?
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Old 03-06-2016, 07:09 PM   #34862
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Was not **** EL got to qualify for EL a meme round these parts for quite some time?
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Old 03-06-2016, 07:12 PM   #34863
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Re: English Football 2015-16

jep
o'neill head on villa color background
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Old 03-06-2016, 07:20 PM   #34864
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English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Paul View Post
What's the difference between playing Thursday/Sunday in the EL and playing Wednesday/Saturday in the CL?

Travel and recovery mainly.

Plus games are Thursday-Sunday-Thursday-Sunday in 10 day period.

Whereas if you have a game on a Wednesday cl. It's Wednesday - Saturday - sat/sun the rotates tue/sat.
3 games in 10/11 days.

*edit*

Us, Spurs and plop will have completed almost 2 rounds of lol el in the same time frame as Arsenal/Chelsea/City have done their r16 ties.

Last edited by kingweed; 03-06-2016 at 07:25 PM.
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Old 03-06-2016, 08:54 PM   #34865
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor View Post
http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/...6_DOWNLOAD.pdf

elimination from European Cups does not have a positive impact on results achieved at domestic league
bolded conclusion is obviously wack and in fact the study even goes further:

Quote:
Elimination from [european competition] tends to have a negative effect on domestic league performance when compared to performance during participation in the competition. This surprising result may be related to the fact that participation in European Cups is a key motivation factor for players and elimination may unconsciously provoke a loss in personal involvement for the rest of the season. Another possible explanation is the difficulty for coaches to manage large squads with fewer games to be played.
so i played around with their numbers for a bit to figure out where they went wrong. here's my theory.

i think they've looked at pre & post euro-KO league game ppg numbers for each team, weighed according to how many games were played in each column, and averaged the lot.

this makes sense on the face of it because if you play 9 games before-KO and 27 games after-KO then your after-KO average should count for 3x as much in the bulk stats. right?

well there's a snag with that: teams which get KO'd early are overrepresented in the after-KO data. this is problem.



better method: compare like with like.

of the 487 seasons they supplied data for, 261 (53.9%) showed an increase in points per game when european competition was out of the way for the team in question.

restricted to top 5 leagues (blitw, bundeslol, loliga, seria a, lique uh) it's 77 out of 142 (54.2%).

this is a pretty slapdash/amateurish way to analyse the data (the benefit is that it took 15 mins), but at least i'm comparing barca with barca, rather than barca with krasnoyarsk FC.

my conclusion: majority of teams do better when europe is out of the way. as any thinking person would expect.

btw before someone gotchas me, i've only been thinking about this for an hour or something so i wouldn't put my house on being right about their method & its (supposed) flaw. but at least my conclusion concurs with what both the fat bloke in the pub and der markt have known for ages. so i suspect i'm right.

Last edited by BAIDS; 03-06-2016 at 09:06 PM.
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Old 03-06-2016, 09:26 PM   #34866
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Re: English Football 2015-16

elolololol
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Old 03-06-2016, 10:55 PM   #34867
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Can't help but think this Spurs fan arrogance about EL is ridiculous. "Throw the EL, sh*t competition anyway", while the last prize of note was won (many) decades ago. The club has been in the CL twice in history, yet all of a sudden EL is beneath them? pretty f*ckin lol.

Sure, you can win the league atm, but you are 5 points behind with 9 games to go, and winning in EL does not equal losing in EPL, nor does winning EPL means losing in EL.

13th richest football club in the world according to a quick google search, and sh*tting all over EL while not winning anything for decades, gtfo. How hard can it be to rotate a squad with these resources just a smidgen to not completely suck in either.

/rant by supporter of a midtable team whose biggest goal is reaching EL over!

Last edited by didonk; 03-06-2016 at 11:01 PM.
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Old 03-06-2016, 11:03 PM   #34868
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Re: English Football 2015-16

This spurs fan doesn't want to throw the Europa league! Like at all! I am supremely pumped for Thursday.
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Old 03-06-2016, 11:09 PM   #34869
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Re: English Football 2015-16

The sunday game next week after EL spursday vs Dortmund is at Aston ****ing Villa. So play full strength in Germany and the kids at Villa. The week after, playing vs Bournemouth at home. But no travel to/from Germany midweek involved.

The team is young, play them while they are available. Potential injuries is the only scare factor.
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Old 03-06-2016, 11:10 PM   #34870
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by didonk View Post
Can't help but think this Spurs fan arrogance about EL is ridiculous. "Throw the EL, sh*t competition anyway", while the last prize of note was won (many) decades ago. The club has been in the CL twice in history, yet all of a sudden EL is beneath them? pretty f*ckin lol.

Sure, you can win the league atm, but you are 5 points behind with 9 games to go, and winning in EL does not equal losing in EPL, nor does winning EPL means losing in EL.

13th richest football club in the world according to a quick google search, and sh*tting all over EL while not winning anything for decades, gtfo. How hard can it be to rotate a squad with these resources just a smidgen to not completely suck in either.

/rant by supporter of a midtable team whose biggest goal is reaching EL over!
While I agree it's lol to put reserves out in the EL etc it's only because of the new TV deal that Spurs are the 13th richest club in the world, doubt they'd even have been top 20 for most of the last 3 decades.
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Old 03-06-2016, 11:49 PM   #34871
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Paul View Post
What's the difference between playing Thursday/Sunday in the EL and playing Wednesday/Saturday in the CL?
Money, and thus squad depth.

Dortmund won the Meisterschaft back-to-back in 2010-11 and 2011-12 after going out in the group stages of, first, the Europa league and then the Champions League (they finished last in their UCL group, so no EL that year, either).
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Old 03-07-2016, 12:29 AM   #34872
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Just rewatched some of the nld. Amazing dier wasn't sent off. Pretty much committed worse yellow card offenses than coq.
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Old 03-07-2016, 02:36 AM   #34873
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cinarocket View Post
Chelsea should have nothing to play for and the thought of letting the title go to one of their London rivals should be enough reason for them to unleash the U15's that day
United probably thought the same when Blackburn went to Anfield all those years ago
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Old 03-07-2016, 03:38 AM   #34874
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by BAIDS View Post
The cut off for their data was the end of the group stage, so for analysis purposes all teams are "eliminated" at the same stage. There is no over/under representation.

Edit: It's also true that Barca, Real, Bayern's results would largely be noise or even outliers in the overall sample. There are far more average teams in there who make up the meat of the data. Those 3 elite clubs, or the top 8 or maybe even 16, would have a very small and likely non-significant impact on the hundred+(?) teams in the study.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BAIDS View Post
but at least my conclusion concurs with what both the fat bloke in the pub and der markt have known for ages. so i suspect i'm right.
Fat bloke and der markt also know MOMENTUM is a thing, so at least we agree there

Last edited by Elrazor; 03-07-2016 at 04:07 AM.
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Old 03-07-2016, 05:51 AM   #34875
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce View Post
Just rewatched some of the nld. Amazing dier wasn't sent off. Pretty much committed worse yellow card offenses than coq.
clearest yellow i have ever seen, i really don't understand referees sometimes.
I rate michael oliver and he refereed the game really well until that point but wtf was going trough his head there?
bellerin later was a sending off as well fwiw
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