Quote:
Originally Posted by Lars1
I read somewhere, don't remember where, that Kane ran like 8 EPL goals above expectation last season.
I would guess Kane will always run above EV for goals (at least when using xG models) as his shooting is so accurate.
So compare Kane to Giroud. Kane has a shot accuracy of 64%; Giroud 54%.
In addition, Kane takes 33% of his shots outside the area; while Giroud its 4%.
So (I think) xG rates both of their chances equally, at least in terms of equating their distance from goal to their chance of scoring. Giroud will get a lot of chances that come to him quickly that he has to take first time, or that are close to goal but is a headed chance and the ball is slightly too high. Meanwhile, when Kane sets himself from 25 yards out, there is a better than average chance he gets it on target, significantly more so than other players (only Kane, Mahrez and Eriksen have >60% shot on target for players with >50 shots).
Basically, xG (again, as far as I know) doesn't differentiate between shooting skill of the player. So it will say that Kane is running good, when in actual fact he is just better than pretty much everyone at shooting.