Quote:
Originally Posted by Elrazor
If you want to quote a study to support your hypothesis at least read the abstract to make sure the methodology isn't utter ****e.
Alas, here's my original post from 2 weeks ago that I posted in the wrong thread and couldn't be arsed to post here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Babalatexi
There's some horrendous ex post reasoning + tiny sample stuff in academia (eg Jones & Harwood, 2008) but some quick googling gives a paper that passes the smell test. Vergin (2008):
"There is an almost universal belief by athletes, sports fans and media observers that momentum is an important force in sports contests." [studies MLB and NBA teams over a season] "[...] The results suggest that sports participants and observers place an unjustified importance on momentum as a causal factor in outcomes of sport contests."
Silva et al (1992) come to the same conclusions in a laboratory test with non-athletes.
Cliffs: Fat blokes in pubs don't understand variance or the pic Lars posted.
FWIW, I find it peculiar that someone with a master's in psychology fails to account for the most basic cognitive biases.
Sources
Jones; Harwood, 2008. Psychological momentum within competitive soccer: Players' perspectives
Silva et al, 1992. Psychological Momentum and Skill Performance: A Laboratory Study
Vergin, 2008. Winning Streaks in Sports and the Mispreception of Momentum