Game state effects yo.

Momentum

Everton wasn't confident in their shots but rondon was from 1 inch outside the goal

Nope, try again

yeah - i don't know if 1.7 is a good estimation on Everton's xG - 34 shots, but the source I read said only 6 on target. (not sure how much faith I have in that.)

But wba get given about 1xG for Rondon's unnecessary chest in from 1 inch.

Definitely a valid point. But makes up for all the times where cutbacks or crosses get blocked that would have led to high ev shots

What is the point you are trying to make here? Most xG models don't consider the outcome of whether a shot was on target or not and I think that is the best way to do it. Paul Riley does his based on SoT only which seems suboptimal to me. I made a great xG model that only considers shots on target that aren't saved. R squared is 1.0 actually.

Shots like Rondon's are always going to be an issue. Just like rebounds are an issue cuz you can get a .5 xG shot then a .8 xG rebound and somehow end up with 1.3 xG in one sequence. You have to be a disciple of the law of large numbers to see it converge and even then it's only an indicator. It is better than whatever else we've got so deal with it.

Caley takes the highest xG shot of a sequence so you don't run into rebounds Jacking up the xG I believe. Definitely some gray area here for how you should handle those scenarios.

Less than 8 hours til the Lestering, but I think the best will be later

10 hours til Villa-Plop 2016. Gonna be an instant classic. Predicting an Okore hat trick. Got it at 9/1.

Could reach maximum plop tonight

few rumours sturridge might be returning? True or? If so wouldnt surprise me given he recovered for our game at start of season, destroyed us, then go injured straight after

great to have some half-time comedy between two GOAT clashes

sturridge already played midweek

He meant returning to the treatment table.

Sturridge+Phil+Firmino to end the season would prob see us go 10-2-1 or something. Replacing mig with a traffic cone could see that improved further.

However we know how this story really goes.

OK, a final decision has been made. I'm normally comfortably entrenched in the Gooner camp in all matters EPLÖL, but I just cant't help it. Leicester winning "tblitw" would be just too good.

Leggo LESTER!!!!

Pool getting hammered in today, 1.9 to 1.76.

#revoked

Happy Valentine's Day all, especially to cashy

Spoiler:

Tvoja MAJKA!

Best odds on Sheff Weds to be promoted are 5/1.

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/football...ship/promotion

Middlesbrough look too short at 1/5

#Arsenal XI to face #LCFC: Cech, Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal, Coquelin, Ramsey, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ozil, Sanchez, Giroud

yeah lacticacid, you're misinterpreting that chart. It shows chances of either outright promotion (ie finishing top 2) or making the playoffs (ie places 3-6). Making the playoffs will in turn give a team ~25% equity for promotion (obv varies according to opposition), so Sheff Wed's overall promotion equity is somewhere around the 12-20% range.

The real equity is much smaller, because we all know one promotion spot is already reserved for the mighty Clarets.