English Football 2015-16 - Leicester City won the league
08-26-2015
, 04:52 PM
08-26-2015
, 05:04 PM
08-26-2015
, 06:05 PM
08-26-2015
, 09:41 PM
08-26-2015
, 10:31 PM
I PRESENT TO YOU THE FIRST EVER DICKSAUCE PERFORMANCE INDEX:
Link - http://www.soccerdfs.com/general-fan...week-3-edition
The Performance Index - Week 3 Edition
August 26, 2015
I wanted to create a visualization to illustrate which teams, and by how much they are over/under performing with their current place in the table based on their underlying xG numbers.
The Excel Sheet
The Graph
Y-Axis is League Position minus xGD Table Position. X-Axis is GD minus xGD.
The Teams
I'm going to break down my analysis of the teams into 3 sections as highlighted by the 3 groupings in the graph above. Underperforming, performing as expected, and overperforming. In these 3 sections I will break them down individually based on their underlying xG and Shot numbers. Theoretically speaking, as the season continues all the teams should converge to the center of the graph.
Overperforming - WHM, CHE, LEI, EVE, MUN (could easily have them in the where they should be bin)
Where they should be - MCI, CPL, STO, AVL, SUN, NEW, WAT, LIV
Underperforming - SOT, TOT, SWA, WBA, NOR, ARS, BOU
The Overperformers
West Ham - After a massive upset at the Emirates a lot of people were looking optimistic about West Ham. The underlying numbers however tell a different story. They have the second worst xGD and the worst xGA in the league meaning their defense is an absolute dumpster fire. It didn't take long for this to manifest itself as they conceded 4 at home vs Bournemouth. To make things worse Sakho is getting arrested and I don't think they have a single "striker" available. You should be very concerned if not freaking out about potentially being in a relegation battle.
Leicester City - One of the funnest teams of the season so far. Willing to just get into slugfests with eveeryone and outscore them. They've posted the most points over some arbitrary gameweek range dating back to last season. They aren't overperforming significantly on offense or on defense, but the aggregate of slight overperformances on both sides of the ball leads to them being in this category. You shouldn't be too worried though as it currently shows Leicester having some of the better offensive stats in the league. They are basically the opposite of Tony Pulis teams trying to outscore opponents instead of trying to keep them from scoring. They should be able to safely avoid relegation and have a shot at being a mid table side if they keep up with these underlying offensive numbers.
Everton - So far this teams been a bit all over the place. From looking terrible at home in a 2-2 draw vs new comers Watford, to completely demolishing one of the best defensive teams from last year on their home soil in a 0-3 win vs Southampton. They've over performed their offensive numbers by a pretty big margin, and their defensive numbers are in line with what the numbers suggest. It looks like there is a good chance the same issues they had last year are still lingering (Really bad offensive numbers and mediocore defensive stats). Many people were bullish on Everton, but the numbers say there is a good chance they will end up in lower mid table mediocrity again.
Man United - Man U is stuck between performing as they should and slightly over performing. Not much has changed from last year as they look to be one of the best defensive teams in the league through sterile keep-a-way stretch the field possession football. They also still look completely useless on offense with Rooney needing to be taken behind the shed and put out of his misery. They'll likely ride their defensive prowess to a 3rd-7th place finish, but don't think they have a shot at challenging for the title without improvements on offense. If they have luck opposite to what they experienced last year they could find themselves possibly out of Europe places all together. It is an unlikely scenario but there is a handful of 4-5 mid table sides that look ready to make the jump to the 4th-7th slot and can do so with good luck results wise and staying healthy.
Chelsea - This section will have a glaring caveat, and that is chelsea have played 2/3 games a man down for a total of ~65+ minutes of game time. This is going to greatly skew their stats negatively (65 min playing a man down is about -1 xGD or so), so it will be worth waiting another week or two before going full blown panic mode. With that said, even 11v11 Chelsea has looked like a dumpster fire that originated from a steaming pile of **** releasing methane gas that caught fire from a stray thrown away cig. That's not a good look for the reigning champions. They have some of the worst defensive stats in the league, conceding more shots on target than even Sunderland and Newcastle have. Pedro's transfer has looked to be a good spark of creativity on offense and I suspect some defensive shuffling could patch up the luxury bus, but Chelsea fans should be very concerned at the moment. The next few games will be very telling if this is just a one off blip, or something indicative of a very deep seated problem with tactics and personal. To be specific, Matic has not looked his world beating destroyer form of last year, and Ivanovic/Terry both look older and slower. Add in Costa tends to have chronic hamstring problems and Chelsea don't have a standout backup they can be badly crippled by injuries in their thin spots.
Looks About Right
Man City - Best stats, best team, and overperforming a bit to boot. City looks the team to beat as they have the best xGD in the league in addition to outperforming said xGD. This is basically the scenario of a great poker player running really good and just curb stomping everyone because of it. They have some unique personal who do really unique things (YAYA BOMBS) that are critical to their success so injuries could cause issues. However, there is little doubt that the title is City's to lose this year from the looks of it. As Sterling/Silva/Aguero develop a good understanding they will be an absolute nightmare to deal with.
Crystal Palace - Another one of the really fun teams to watch this year. Coached by Alan Pardew, who was far and away the manager of the year last year. They continue to slightly outperform their already good offensive numbers (Newcastle did this as well when he was there). Their defense may be a bit suspect as they allow the most passes to be completed within 25 yards of their goal in the EPL (CHE is second worst in this category). This is one of the mid table teams I suspect can make the jump to compete for European spots. I look forward to all the broken ankles that Yannick Bolasie leaves in his wake.
Stoke - Stoke was quietly one of the more improved teams last year which was highlighted by their top half finish. However things ain't looking so great this year. Sitting near the bottom of the table, with bottom of the barrel defensive stats, and mid range offensive stats there is a lot to be pessimistic about. They aren't even underperforming so this would suggest they may struggle this year. This seems a bit odd considering some of the big name personal they've brought in. The defensive issues lies in the fact they've done a really bad job preventing teams from completing passes through the middle of their defense, and the subsequent shots this has created. If they can patch up those issues they'll be in the running for a top half finish again. When you consider that Mame Diouf is the league leader in xG's there is some upside to this team and a lot room to be optimistic.
Aston Villa - One of the more curious teams as they don't seem good offensively, but also haven't been bad defensively. They are comprehensively mediocre. Which for Villa fans, actually isn't a bad thing at all! This likely means wallowing in the mid table (11th-15th or so), but the team has some upside having brought in a lot of young foreign talent that look pretty good. They shouldn't have to worry at all about relegation, but likely are a year away from being able to make a concerted push further up the table. Side note: Amaavi and Traore both look like really good prospects.
Sunderland - **** stats, **** team. Complete bottom of the barrel. Year after year they've caused analytic guys to lose their shirt betting on them to go down on the back of awful defensive stats. This year is no different as their stats suggest they are one of the worst teams in the league. Not much else to say that we don't already know, relegation battle imminent.
Newcastle - Similar to Sunderland they have really bad stats, and look to be a bottom of the table team. However, there is an important caveat to this. Their schedule in August is really really tough, so there is some optimism to be had. 2 pts from SOT MUN and SWA isn't half bad. Next up is Arsenal and if they can get something from that game they should actually feel pretty good about themselves. They've made some good transfers, and their season doesn't start until September really. They are a team not necessarily worth putting too much weight into their current position even if the stats say that's how they've performed. Definitely a team to re-evaluate at the end of Sept.
Watford - While much of the early season hype for the promoted teams was directed toward Bournemouth another promoted team has flown under the radar doing quite well. 3 draws in 3 games with the stats pointing to deserved results against 2 decent teams and one bottom dweller. Watford is putting up mid table numbers and looks to have a solid foundation to stay out of a relegation battle. They are pretty much in the same boat as villa, not being great offensively, but being pretty good defensively.
Plop - Pool fans rejoice, this early season surge to near the top of the table isn't all that unfounded after all. With some top tier defensive numbers and some above average attacking numbers it looks like they will indeed be in the battle for the CL spots (possibly more). Additionally their early schedule was actually quite tough with Stoke and Arsenal on the road and a stingy Bournemouth team at anfield. 7pts out of a possible 9 is probably the right number for them. They did benefit from a shaky Arsenal CB pairing, and were put under immense pressure in the second half of that game ultimately losing the xG battle but grabbing a point. Pool fans have a lot to be optimistic about especially on defense, as well as Benteke fitting in well on offense.
The Underperformers
Southampton - Soton have been a bit unlucky in that their current conversion rate has been poor, while opponents has been high. They boast top 7 TSR and Shots on Target numbers which suggests they'll rebound just fine. Stekelenburg has been shaky, and they are feeling the loss of Schneiderlin. I suspect when Clasie is healthy along with some regression they'll drift towards the uppwe mid table (7th-10th).
Spuds - Spurs don't look nearly as woeful defensively as they were last year and still seem solid on offense. They need some squad depth especially at forward. N'Jie + Son look to solve those problems. 2 points from 3 games is a bit harsh on them. I dont think they will challenge for the CL but they should be somewhere around 6-8th
West Brom - A **** team with **** stats that is performing even worse. The **** stats are pretty standard Pulis ball, but his teams usually out perform their shot deficit numbers. They haven't so far, and if they don't soon they'll be relegation fodder. Rondon looks a decent pickup, but it won't make up for losing Berahino if he goes off. Destined for relegation cause **** you Tony Pulis.
Norwich - The second in the batch of plucky newcomers. Norwich is posting fantastic offensive numbers and middle of the road defensive numbers. They have the best TSR and 4th Best Shots on Target Ratio and are 4th in xGD. This means not only is Norwich safe from relegation they have a solid shot at being a top half side. Nathan Redmond looks to be a real good prospect and I expect to see a lot of good things from him this year
Arsenal - The Gunners are off to a shaky start, losing an absurd fluke game to West Ham, and dropping points at home to pool. Don't worry Arsenal fans, things aren't as bad as they look as the West Ham loss was down to some unlucky finishing on their part and some uncharacteristic keeping errors. The poor finishing has continued in their other games and will likely regress to some reasonable conversion rates and have them blowing some teams out of the water. The defense looked really poor in the 1st half against Liverpool but that can be attributed to their 3rd and 4th choice CB pairing. Cech proved the West Ham game was the exception and not the rule with a brilliant performance. Arsenal has really good TSR but poor Shots on Target Ratio which means they'll need to improve their shooting accuracy or they could continue to have issues scoring. As it stands now they should be fine for a top 4 finish, but really need a lot of improvement in their offensive numbers to challenge for the title.
Bournemouth - Ah the last of the promoted sides, and my personal favorite. They don't have the best numbers so far of the 3 new sides (NOR does), but they look like they'll be a fun team to watch. Determined to play out of the back they will look to go toe to toe with teams which typically leads to fun back and forth games. Wilson, Ritchie, and Gradel all look to be great talents and will make a good impression on the league this year. All their stats put them square in the mid table to they should be safe from relegation and be able to improve next year with TBTVDITW money.
SWANZ - Swansea is basically the polar opposite of Chelsea so far in they've done well and still underperformed. 2 of their matches have seen them playing 11v10 so that certainly pads their stats a little. Last year they way over performed their stats and finished 8th. Many stats guys predicted they'd fall off a bit this year, and they've promptly responded with increasing their shooting ratios greatly. They sit Second in xGD, Shots on Target Ratio, and TSR. The next few games will tell us a lot about them, but I suspect they are here to challenge for Europe since the offensive creative burden is now more spread out from last years BONY SIGGY axis.
Link - http://www.soccerdfs.com/general-fan...week-3-edition
The Performance Index - Week 3 Edition
August 26, 2015
I wanted to create a visualization to illustrate which teams, and by how much they are over/under performing with their current place in the table based on their underlying xG numbers.
The Excel Sheet
The Graph
Y-Axis is League Position minus xGD Table Position. X-Axis is GD minus xGD.
The Teams
I'm going to break down my analysis of the teams into 3 sections as highlighted by the 3 groupings in the graph above. Underperforming, performing as expected, and overperforming. In these 3 sections I will break them down individually based on their underlying xG and Shot numbers. Theoretically speaking, as the season continues all the teams should converge to the center of the graph.
Overperforming - WHM, CHE, LEI, EVE, MUN (could easily have them in the where they should be bin)
Where they should be - MCI, CPL, STO, AVL, SUN, NEW, WAT, LIV
Underperforming - SOT, TOT, SWA, WBA, NOR, ARS, BOU
The Overperformers
West Ham - After a massive upset at the Emirates a lot of people were looking optimistic about West Ham. The underlying numbers however tell a different story. They have the second worst xGD and the worst xGA in the league meaning their defense is an absolute dumpster fire. It didn't take long for this to manifest itself as they conceded 4 at home vs Bournemouth. To make things worse Sakho is getting arrested and I don't think they have a single "striker" available. You should be very concerned if not freaking out about potentially being in a relegation battle.
Leicester City - One of the funnest teams of the season so far. Willing to just get into slugfests with eveeryone and outscore them. They've posted the most points over some arbitrary gameweek range dating back to last season. They aren't overperforming significantly on offense or on defense, but the aggregate of slight overperformances on both sides of the ball leads to them being in this category. You shouldn't be too worried though as it currently shows Leicester having some of the better offensive stats in the league. They are basically the opposite of Tony Pulis teams trying to outscore opponents instead of trying to keep them from scoring. They should be able to safely avoid relegation and have a shot at being a mid table side if they keep up with these underlying offensive numbers.
Everton - So far this teams been a bit all over the place. From looking terrible at home in a 2-2 draw vs new comers Watford, to completely demolishing one of the best defensive teams from last year on their home soil in a 0-3 win vs Southampton. They've over performed their offensive numbers by a pretty big margin, and their defensive numbers are in line with what the numbers suggest. It looks like there is a good chance the same issues they had last year are still lingering (Really bad offensive numbers and mediocore defensive stats). Many people were bullish on Everton, but the numbers say there is a good chance they will end up in lower mid table mediocrity again.
Man United - Man U is stuck between performing as they should and slightly over performing. Not much has changed from last year as they look to be one of the best defensive teams in the league through sterile keep-a-way stretch the field possession football. They also still look completely useless on offense with Rooney needing to be taken behind the shed and put out of his misery. They'll likely ride their defensive prowess to a 3rd-7th place finish, but don't think they have a shot at challenging for the title without improvements on offense. If they have luck opposite to what they experienced last year they could find themselves possibly out of Europe places all together. It is an unlikely scenario but there is a handful of 4-5 mid table sides that look ready to make the jump to the 4th-7th slot and can do so with good luck results wise and staying healthy.
Chelsea - This section will have a glaring caveat, and that is chelsea have played 2/3 games a man down for a total of ~65+ minutes of game time. This is going to greatly skew their stats negatively (65 min playing a man down is about -1 xGD or so), so it will be worth waiting another week or two before going full blown panic mode. With that said, even 11v11 Chelsea has looked like a dumpster fire that originated from a steaming pile of **** releasing methane gas that caught fire from a stray thrown away cig. That's not a good look for the reigning champions. They have some of the worst defensive stats in the league, conceding more shots on target than even Sunderland and Newcastle have. Pedro's transfer has looked to be a good spark of creativity on offense and I suspect some defensive shuffling could patch up the luxury bus, but Chelsea fans should be very concerned at the moment. The next few games will be very telling if this is just a one off blip, or something indicative of a very deep seated problem with tactics and personal. To be specific, Matic has not looked his world beating destroyer form of last year, and Ivanovic/Terry both look older and slower. Add in Costa tends to have chronic hamstring problems and Chelsea don't have a standout backup they can be badly crippled by injuries in their thin spots.
Looks About Right
Man City - Best stats, best team, and overperforming a bit to boot. City looks the team to beat as they have the best xGD in the league in addition to outperforming said xGD. This is basically the scenario of a great poker player running really good and just curb stomping everyone because of it. They have some unique personal who do really unique things (YAYA BOMBS) that are critical to their success so injuries could cause issues. However, there is little doubt that the title is City's to lose this year from the looks of it. As Sterling/Silva/Aguero develop a good understanding they will be an absolute nightmare to deal with.
Crystal Palace - Another one of the really fun teams to watch this year. Coached by Alan Pardew, who was far and away the manager of the year last year. They continue to slightly outperform their already good offensive numbers (Newcastle did this as well when he was there). Their defense may be a bit suspect as they allow the most passes to be completed within 25 yards of their goal in the EPL (CHE is second worst in this category). This is one of the mid table teams I suspect can make the jump to compete for European spots. I look forward to all the broken ankles that Yannick Bolasie leaves in his wake.
Stoke - Stoke was quietly one of the more improved teams last year which was highlighted by their top half finish. However things ain't looking so great this year. Sitting near the bottom of the table, with bottom of the barrel defensive stats, and mid range offensive stats there is a lot to be pessimistic about. They aren't even underperforming so this would suggest they may struggle this year. This seems a bit odd considering some of the big name personal they've brought in. The defensive issues lies in the fact they've done a really bad job preventing teams from completing passes through the middle of their defense, and the subsequent shots this has created. If they can patch up those issues they'll be in the running for a top half finish again. When you consider that Mame Diouf is the league leader in xG's there is some upside to this team and a lot room to be optimistic.
Aston Villa - One of the more curious teams as they don't seem good offensively, but also haven't been bad defensively. They are comprehensively mediocre. Which for Villa fans, actually isn't a bad thing at all! This likely means wallowing in the mid table (11th-15th or so), but the team has some upside having brought in a lot of young foreign talent that look pretty good. They shouldn't have to worry at all about relegation, but likely are a year away from being able to make a concerted push further up the table. Side note: Amaavi and Traore both look like really good prospects.
Sunderland - **** stats, **** team. Complete bottom of the barrel. Year after year they've caused analytic guys to lose their shirt betting on them to go down on the back of awful defensive stats. This year is no different as their stats suggest they are one of the worst teams in the league. Not much else to say that we don't already know, relegation battle imminent.
Newcastle - Similar to Sunderland they have really bad stats, and look to be a bottom of the table team. However, there is an important caveat to this. Their schedule in August is really really tough, so there is some optimism to be had. 2 pts from SOT MUN and SWA isn't half bad. Next up is Arsenal and if they can get something from that game they should actually feel pretty good about themselves. They've made some good transfers, and their season doesn't start until September really. They are a team not necessarily worth putting too much weight into their current position even if the stats say that's how they've performed. Definitely a team to re-evaluate at the end of Sept.
Watford - While much of the early season hype for the promoted teams was directed toward Bournemouth another promoted team has flown under the radar doing quite well. 3 draws in 3 games with the stats pointing to deserved results against 2 decent teams and one bottom dweller. Watford is putting up mid table numbers and looks to have a solid foundation to stay out of a relegation battle. They are pretty much in the same boat as villa, not being great offensively, but being pretty good defensively.
Plop - Pool fans rejoice, this early season surge to near the top of the table isn't all that unfounded after all. With some top tier defensive numbers and some above average attacking numbers it looks like they will indeed be in the battle for the CL spots (possibly more). Additionally their early schedule was actually quite tough with Stoke and Arsenal on the road and a stingy Bournemouth team at anfield. 7pts out of a possible 9 is probably the right number for them. They did benefit from a shaky Arsenal CB pairing, and were put under immense pressure in the second half of that game ultimately losing the xG battle but grabbing a point. Pool fans have a lot to be optimistic about especially on defense, as well as Benteke fitting in well on offense.
The Underperformers
Southampton - Soton have been a bit unlucky in that their current conversion rate has been poor, while opponents has been high. They boast top 7 TSR and Shots on Target numbers which suggests they'll rebound just fine. Stekelenburg has been shaky, and they are feeling the loss of Schneiderlin. I suspect when Clasie is healthy along with some regression they'll drift towards the uppwe mid table (7th-10th).
Spuds - Spurs don't look nearly as woeful defensively as they were last year and still seem solid on offense. They need some squad depth especially at forward. N'Jie + Son look to solve those problems. 2 points from 3 games is a bit harsh on them. I dont think they will challenge for the CL but they should be somewhere around 6-8th
West Brom - A **** team with **** stats that is performing even worse. The **** stats are pretty standard Pulis ball, but his teams usually out perform their shot deficit numbers. They haven't so far, and if they don't soon they'll be relegation fodder. Rondon looks a decent pickup, but it won't make up for losing Berahino if he goes off. Destined for relegation cause **** you Tony Pulis.
Norwich - The second in the batch of plucky newcomers. Norwich is posting fantastic offensive numbers and middle of the road defensive numbers. They have the best TSR and 4th Best Shots on Target Ratio and are 4th in xGD. This means not only is Norwich safe from relegation they have a solid shot at being a top half side. Nathan Redmond looks to be a real good prospect and I expect to see a lot of good things from him this year
Arsenal - The Gunners are off to a shaky start, losing an absurd fluke game to West Ham, and dropping points at home to pool. Don't worry Arsenal fans, things aren't as bad as they look as the West Ham loss was down to some unlucky finishing on their part and some uncharacteristic keeping errors. The poor finishing has continued in their other games and will likely regress to some reasonable conversion rates and have them blowing some teams out of the water. The defense looked really poor in the 1st half against Liverpool but that can be attributed to their 3rd and 4th choice CB pairing. Cech proved the West Ham game was the exception and not the rule with a brilliant performance. Arsenal has really good TSR but poor Shots on Target Ratio which means they'll need to improve their shooting accuracy or they could continue to have issues scoring. As it stands now they should be fine for a top 4 finish, but really need a lot of improvement in their offensive numbers to challenge for the title.
Bournemouth - Ah the last of the promoted sides, and my personal favorite. They don't have the best numbers so far of the 3 new sides (NOR does), but they look like they'll be a fun team to watch. Determined to play out of the back they will look to go toe to toe with teams which typically leads to fun back and forth games. Wilson, Ritchie, and Gradel all look to be great talents and will make a good impression on the league this year. All their stats put them square in the mid table to they should be safe from relegation and be able to improve next year with TBTVDITW money.
SWANZ - Swansea is basically the polar opposite of Chelsea so far in they've done well and still underperformed. 2 of their matches have seen them playing 11v10 so that certainly pads their stats a little. Last year they way over performed their stats and finished 8th. Many stats guys predicted they'd fall off a bit this year, and they've promptly responded with increasing their shooting ratios greatly. They sit Second in xGD, Shots on Target Ratio, and TSR. The next few games will tell us a lot about them, but I suspect they are here to challenge for Europe since the offensive creative burden is now more spread out from last years BONY SIGGY axis.
Last edited by DuckSauce; 08-26-2015 at 10:45 PM.
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08-27-2015
, 01:15 AM
, Weaksauce, I enjoyed reading that. Everything you wrote was reasonable, which is a little disappointing as I was expecting some smouldering hot takes - I suggest you throw on a little Canadian post-rock and come back with some bearish views on Anglo Saxons, stir the pot a little.
08-27-2015
, 01:30 AM
08-27-2015
, 01:50 AM
08-27-2015
, 01:53 AM
08-27-2015
, 02:22 AM
08-27-2015
, 03:48 AM
08-27-2015
, 04:30 AM
