English Football 2015-16 - Leicester City won the league - Page 283 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

This is exactly the problem. Most commentators talk about draw as if you'd still get only two points from a win.

For two equal teams heading into the match it would actually be +EV to have a fixed game. Like flip a coin who is gonna win and you have 1.5 points of EV. Where as both of them would have less than 1.5 points of EV if it's a real match and sometimes it's gonna end in a draw.

Note that I don't want that to be done though obv. More attacking football is a good solution to kinda avoid some draws. Sort of a prisoner's dilemma if there's attacking, but there's also playing defensively and counter-attacking.

Last edited by raheem; 08-25-2015 at 01:30 PM.

08-25-2015 , 01:28 PM

#7052

joejoe1337

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PNHH

The same reason it's acceptable to punt on 4th and inches despite every model itw saying it would be better to go for it.

The reason for this surely has more to do with coaches being correctly risk averse in order to keep their job. I guess you could say the same for playing for a draw away from home, but it feels a bit weak.

08-25-2015 , 01:31 PM

#7053

tchaz

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nutshot2

More of a general football than EPL question but...

Why is the accepted strategy to "play for a loss at home and a draw away"?

Where did that start, and what's the reason for it?

fyp

Quote:

Originally Posted by Human Halo

Where is this an accepted strategy?

Pulislandia

08-25-2015 , 01:35 PM

#7054

cashy

we have welbeck

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 29,767

Quote:

Originally Posted by raheem

no that's not the problem
people just don't analyse situations with EV so when a teams most likely outcome is loss/0 pts then they just assume 1 pts = good
the thing that changed is that with "2 pts win" they were even right most of the time(by accident)

08-25-2015 , 01:54 PM

#7055

PNHH

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Quote:

Originally Posted by t3hbandit

Players/teams always raise their game when playing in front of their home fans. In theory they should be going out and giving it 100% every game but that's just not reality. Also the homefans can have a big influence on the refs, you get far less 50/50 decisions as the away side.

When United play Liverpool you've got loads of TV channels hyping the game like a heavyweight PPV clash from weeks out and it only grows as the game get's closer, the atmosphere in the ground is always amazing for games vs plop and the intensity the game's played at just doesn't happen when it's vs Watford/Newcastle.

It's actually pretty amazing how much psychology drives on field performance.

_ _ _

If managers were optimizing, much fewer matches would end with a draw. Even if the opponents score *every time* you go for it and fail, you only have to win >1/3 to be +EV. (All else equal, yes yes, I know

)

Check out Rayo Vallecano'a stats. They've only had a draw 17 times the past 4 seasons in total in La Liga (11%).

08-25-2015 , 02:01 PM

#7056

royalblue

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about psychology driving performance... has there been any investigative work done on this? I've always just assumed that HFA is due to presure on the ref.

08-25-2015 , 02:12 PM

#7057

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Think its pretty rare that you see teams set up totally to draw, mostly its try to score based on a platform of not conceding, e.g. counter attacking compared to try not to concede based on a platform of attacking whilst at home.

Really its a binary between countering away and seeking more possession at home.

08-25-2015 , 02:13 PM

#7058

DuckSauce

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Quote:

Originally Posted by royalblue

about psychology driving performance... has there been any investigative work done on this? I've always just assumed that HFA is due to presure on the ref.

Kind of, there was a study done with rugby teams and some lower league soccer teams. One of the main findings was that cortisol levels were higher in players when playing on the road vs the same exact fixture when at home. Cortisol is released due to stress and generally has a bunch of negative affects on the body. This, I imagine, is a large part of why teams perform worse on the road then at home.

08-25-2015 , 02:14 PM

#7059

royalblue

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interesting, thanks

08-25-2015 , 02:25 PM

#7060

Lars1

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 4,971

Quote:

Originally Posted by PNHH

)

Check out Rayo Vallecano'a stats. They've only had a draw 17 times the past 4 seasons in total in La Liga (11%).

BAIDS theorem confirmed flawed since most managers don't grasp this easy concept.

in a highly competitive league like the championship it must be +EV to always play for the win, but instead most team have ≈ 30% draw.

08-25-2015 , 02:30 PM

#7061

BAIDS

2013 FA Cup winner

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 32,645

didnt ian holloway try this and end up turning a load of draws into losses

tbh these days i dont see much full on bus parking between two equally matched teams (pulis and jose exceptions), bournemouth's attitude at upton park pretty typical

08-25-2015 , 02:31 PM

#7062

Babalatexi

adept

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 914

Loss aversion is a thing?

K

08-25-2015 , 02:49 PM

#7063

Elrazor

losing momentum

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,798

Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckSauce

There is a lot of research in this area. Environment is also a factor (i.e. even controlling for the crowd, an unfamiliar environment has a negative effect on state anxiety and performance).

08-25-2015 , 03:13 PM

#7064

Lars1

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 4,971

Quote:

Originally Posted by BAIDS

well, it doesn't have to be full jose-buses, but if almost all teams end up with 30% draws then they must be doing something wrong somewhere?

08-25-2015 , 03:16 PM

#7065

BAIDS

2013 FA Cup winner

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 32,645

maybe

but if you're not a good team then bombing forward seeking a winner might not be +ev. it might not give you many more chances to win while giving the opposition multiple 3-vs-2 chances on the break

idk if thats the case but its at least theoretically possible (and somewhat plausible)

08-25-2015 , 03:34 PM

#7066

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,722

so sunderland have already conceded three times to exeter tonight

08-25-2015 , 03:38 PM

#7067

Consty

resident wizard

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 10,134

Villa losing at home to Notts County as well.

08-25-2015 , 03:42 PM

#7068

therightdeal

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Villa £40m spent and look even worse than last season.

08-25-2015 , 04:00 PM

#7069

Burnss

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grealish is going to be sold for a lot of money

08-25-2015 , 04:07 PM

#7070

dawade

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Any of the Capital One Cup matches available on TV in USA? Particularly Everton?

08-25-2015 , 04:43 PM

#7071

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 74,722

Note to our players: when two goals down with two minutes to go in a meaningless cup competition, having a "who can get sent off for the stupidest reason" competition should be avoided

08-25-2015 , 05:10 PM

#7072

JoeDiego

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Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,820

22/22 ran really good with flips on Kimble (never heard of him) and Gunnar Halle. Born in 1984 though so that was basically my childhood.

Thanks Hoopie.