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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-16-2009, 01:48 AM   #176
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I like the call just because it is ballsy as ****, and I have to give it to BB for going for it in a spot where almost every other coach in the NFL would have punted without a second thought. I also am of the thought that NFL coaches obviously do not go for it on 4th down nearly enough.

However, this spot is sooooo close.....if I am in BB's spot, I think I punt this time, to be honest....I also hate how the next 2 days is going to be sports "analysts" nitting it up hardcore, going to be uber-annoying....can't wait for ****ing Jay Mariotti to say he could have coached a better game then BB, lulz.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:49 AM   #177
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK View Post
Addai ran that play with 36 seconds left.
That's not really enough time to hope you can drive down the field into FG range w/out any time outs. You have a better chance of stopping them on three consecutive plays from 1.

Of course, they shouldn't have tackled Addai at the 1 on the play that started with 1:20 left. It is true it is hard to make that decision in the middle of the play, but MJD made a similar (correct) decision in the middle of a play earlier today (kneeling down at the 1 when he could have walked in for a TD).
wasn't really similar, mjd was told to do that. i doubt the patriots D were told that once addai gets to the 3 yard line to let him score.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:49 AM   #178
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by TimTimSalabim View Post
The most laughable was Dungy saying you have to "go with the percentages and punt", when it's clear he has no idea what the percentages are. Although I'm sure it will get even more pathetic in the next 24 hours.
Understatement of the year. He will get slaughtered in the media. Fatcessa is already outright laughing at him. I really hate that fat ****.

Anyway, like I said I think it's close. If it's 4th and 2 at midfield or closer, I go for it everytime I think. I'm willing to have Manning go 50 yards to get that TD with less than 2 minutes to go.

The funny thing is I dont know exactly where I draw the line. Like, if you asked me 4th and 2 at his own 20, punt. Midfield, go for it. Between there it's a gray area as to how much field I want to give up, knowing that it will most likely be in PM's hands for the rest of the game.

I'm sure there is a mathematical formula to determine exactly what yard line would be the buffer between go for it/punt, but I dont know which one so I only have my own limited football knowledge plus my "gut" (LOL) to rely on.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:50 AM   #179
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

by the way mike francesa has already called it the worst decision in football coaching history (by anyone who has a brain). get ready for more of this.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:50 AM   #180
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by ThaSaltCracka View Post
this thread is really confusing right now especially with everyone using their own hypothetical %'s.
Best numbers imo:

Colts scoring from inside the 30: 75%
Colts scoring from their own 30 after a theoretical 40 yards Chris Hanson punt: 48%
Patriots getting a first down on 4th and 2 on that play: 45%
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:50 AM   #181
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Just to throw this out there and see what people think:

Prior to the 4th down attempt, Indy had scored 4 touchdowns and had 9 other possessions that did not yield any points (7 punts and 2 picks).

That's 31% touchdowns.

Obviously it changes a bit with the whole field being 4 down territory, but it also changes with defensive adjustments with 70-ish yards to go in two minutes.

45% seems too high to me.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:51 AM   #182
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I will need math

my argument is chance the Pats receive a kickoff and drive to get a winning FG with 36s left is > chance of stopping the Colts for 4 downs from the 1
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:51 AM   #183
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

that keeling at the 1 business is a little different when you still need a touchdown to win
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:51 AM   #184
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Trent Dilfer advocating playing not to lose, I think that's a first.
lol I saw that too. NE should hire Jauron imo.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:51 AM   #185
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by NickMPK View Post
Addai ran that play with 36 seconds left.
That's not really enough time to hope you can drive down the field into FG range w/out any time outs. You have a better chance of stopping them on three consecutive plays from 1.

Of course, they shouldn't have tackled Addai at the 1 on the play that started with 1:20 left. It is true it is hard to make that decision in the middle of the play, but MJD made a similar (correct) decision in the middle of a play earlier today (kneeling down at the 1 when he could have walked in for a TD).
On the first Addai run they should likely have let him score but not the second imo. But what are the chances the Colts score from inside the 5 with 4 downs? Like, 90%? So if they let him walk in after making a big run (obviously you don't let him break a big run on purpose here you have to make the decision to let him score after he breaks it to the 2nd level and inside the 5), there is about 1:10 left and the Pats need about 40ish yards to kick a field goal......

lol, this is actually an amazing end game scenario. should have a course on it! at least a few lectures.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:52 AM   #186
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by agdci981 View Post
Best numbers imo:

Colts scoring from inside the 30: 75%
Colts scoring from their own 30 after a theoretical 40 yards Chris Hanson punt: 48%
Patriots getting a first down on 4th and 2 on that play: 45%
Terribad numbers.

75% wtf?!?!?!
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:52 AM   #187
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by ThaSaltCracka View Post
this thread is really confusing right now especially with everyone using their own hypothetical %'s.
this.

the thing about this particular math problem is that there are no constants. you're throwing not one, not two, but three approximations into an equation in order to definitively say that such and such a result is correct.

i guess no one sees the multitude of problems that can arise by doing this, though.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:52 AM   #188
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Triumph36 View Post
by the way mike francesa has already called it the worst decision in football coaching history (by anyone who has a brain). get ready for more of this.
ugh, this could end up being a bad call (I have no idea one way or the other), but I hate this kind of hyperbole from the sports media.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:52 AM   #189
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Triumph36 View Post
by the way mike francesa has already called it the worst decision in football coaching history (by anyone who has a brain). get ready for more of this.
And he is one of the least results-oriented radio guys....
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:54 AM   #190
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by agdci981 View Post
Patriots getting a first down on 4th and 2 on that play: 45%
Too low - 4th and 2 is easier than a 2 pt conversion (league avg is around 45% at those) and the Pats are way better than league avg. offense
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:54 AM   #191
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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And he is one of the least results-oriented radio guys....
Hoping... this... is... a... level
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:54 AM   #192
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Bill Murphy View Post
Agreed 100% with your 2nd sentence. Gonna be very interesting to hear all the commentary from the statheads as well as the Simmons/Mike & Mike types.
Not sure which group you're trying to imply that Simmons falls in, but I'd be shocked if he questions Belichick on this one. In his very last podcast, he was just talking about how every team should hire an 18 year old that plays lots of Madden to handle all of their 4th down, clock management, two point conversions, etc., etc.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:54 AM   #193
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...-vs-colts.html
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:55 AM   #194
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

TBH, in the heat of battle I'd've punted.

However, were I an NFL HC, I hope I would've hired somebody to have run all these scenarios so I'd know the correct EVs.

I'm pretty sure now it was EV+ to go for it, but I'm also pretty sure that pass on 3rd-final timeout-pass on 4th was not the best way to go about it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:55 AM   #195
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Not sure which group you're trying to imply that Simmons falls in, but I'd be shocked if he questions Belichick on this one. In his very last podcast, he was just talking about how every team should hire an 18 year old that plays lots of Madden to handle all of their 4th down, clock management, two point conversions, etc., etc.
18 is too old

should be a 13 year old
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:55 AM   #196
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by kidcolin View Post
and for some of them, it probably makes sense with regards to job security. BB is one of the few bad asses who's pretty much immune to ******ed GMs/public opinion/etc
So are you saying that the coaches would actually know that going for it won the game 10% more than punting, and would still punt, or could they just be ignorant?

10% is a huge, huge, huge edge. Put me in an NFL team and let me keep making +10% plays that the crowd won't like, real good chance I'm superstar coach in 5 years imo.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:55 AM   #197
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Everyone,

It's pretty simple. Stop listening to and watching sports media.

I don't watch pregame shows. I don't watch postgame shows. I don't watch highlight shows.

I watch shortcuts, I read smart websites, and I talk with smart posters on 2+2 while ignoring the dumb ones.

I lead a happy sports viewing life, and I wish you all the same.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:56 AM   #198
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
I will need math

my argument is chance the Pats receive a kickoff and drive to get a winning FG with 36s left is > chance of stopping the Colts for 4 downs from the 1
They only have to stop them for 3 downs.
If the give up the TD on 1st down, that is the same as letting him score....the scenario necessarily already assumes they have made the stop on 1st down.
i.e. you are essentially asking: "Would the Patriots prefer that Addai score on 1st & 1 or be stopped?"
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:56 AM   #199
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

My gut guesses...

Pats convert on 4th ~70%
Pats win if convert ~100%
Pats lose if do not convert (or TO) ~70% (includes chance Pats come back)
Pats lose if punt ~30%

So,
P(win|go4it) = .70 + .30*(.30) = .79
P(win|punt) = .70

So based on wags, it's within 10% either way. I think those saying it is overwhelming a "go for it" situation are overstating it a bit. But my % guesses could be well off. There are some meta aspects that are worth considering, though. If you punt and lose, you get less flack, less second guessing, and overall less distraction going forward compared to getting stopped and lose. I'm not sure which loss would hurt team more -- seems that a punt and stop is a confidence boost, but so is getting 4th down. Losing the way they did is probably the most stinging way to lose, though. Not that such perception is terribly important, but all else equal (or too close to call), seems reasonable to take the conventional route which leaves a less bitter taste if it falls flat.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:56 AM   #200
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by iggymcfly View Post
Not sure which group you're trying to imply that Simmons falls in, but I'd be shocked if he questions Belichick on this one. In his very last podcast, he was just talking about how every team should hire an 18 year old that plays lots of Madden to handle all of their 4th down, clock management, two point conversions, etc., etc.
not sure what you are implying about Simmons, hopefully its that he's a moron.
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