Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 7 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

Good luck trying to convince some owner/GM/dongtard of your job security with a printout of conversion rates and some explanation of game theory.

Until that changes or more BBs make more calls like this and they're praised. It will be an uphill battle for mathematical analysis in football.

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11-16-2009 , 01:38 AM

#152

MyTurn2Raise

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Quote:

Originally Posted by vixticator

lol, really? i don't know if my %'s are right but that's sick.

yeah... you have the Pats winning 55% of the time in either scenario assuming the Pats would have an equal chance of regaining the lead after both scenarios, which I don't think is true

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11-16-2009 , 01:38 AM

#153

Spenda

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God I absolutely hate Dilfer

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11-16-2009 , 01:39 AM

#154

Uglyowl

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Originally Posted by TheUntouchable

I don't see how it's possibly equal when putting your numbers in.

40% + (60%*25%) = 55%
Stop after punting = 55%

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11-16-2009 , 01:40 AM

#155

Riverman

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It should be like 90% agreement on a forum like this.

If it's 65/35 here, lol @ thinking anyone other than BB could get away with this and keep their job.

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11-16-2009 , 01:40 AM

#156

MyTurn2Raise

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

this

Belichick shows the rings to convince his donktard in charge

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11-16-2009 , 01:40 AM

#157

TheUntouchable

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

yeah... you have the Pats winning 55% of the time in either scenario assuming the Pats would have an equal chance of regaining the lead after both scenarios, which I don't think is true

Does he? He has them winning 40% of the time when they convert and 25% of the time when the Colts don't score from the 30. I'm not sure how that equals 55%.

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11-16-2009 , 01:40 AM

#158

Thremp

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

one it was first and goal at the 1, the Pats should've let the Colts walk in for a TD
that is what I am saying

Yeah, that is idiot talk.

Substantiate this. What do you think the probability is for a team to get to the opponents 30 is with ~35s and no TOs. What is your TD % for the Colts?

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11-16-2009 , 01:41 AM

#159

mersenneary

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Good call, not really all that close. lol @ sports media.

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11-16-2009 , 01:41 AM

#160

vixticator

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Originally Posted by TheUntouchable

I can't imagine Scenario 3 is as high as 45% though.

They have a timeout and two minute warning (maybe?). I think on average there will be 65-70 yards to march. They have time to work the middle a bit. Ehhhhh, 45% is probably too high. I think 25% is too low. IDK.

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11-16-2009 , 01:42 AM

#161

TheUntouchable

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Uglyowl

40% + (60%*25%) = 55%
Stop after punting = 55%

Oh ok, that makes sense.

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11-16-2009 , 01:42 AM

#162

RacersEdge

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It's about a 10% edge to go for it on 4th down.

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11-16-2009 , 01:42 AM

#163

TimTimSalabim

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The most laughable was Dungy saying you have to "go with the percentages and punt", when it's clear he has no idea what the percentages are. Although I'm sure it will get even more pathetic in the next 24 hours.

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11-16-2009 , 01:42 AM

#164

Triumph36

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

one it was first and goal at the 1, the Pats should've let the Colts walk in for a TD
that is what I am saying

thrempisright, youarewrong. c'mon now.

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11-16-2009 , 01:43 AM

#165

vixticator

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

yeah... you have the Pats winning 55% of the time in either scenario assuming the Pats would have an equal chance of regaining the lead after both scenarios, which I don't think is true

Pats have a better chance of winning if the Colts score on the shorter field. Gives more value in going for the 4th down. I don't agree they should have let Addai score though.

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11-16-2009 , 01:43 AM

#166

Thremp

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TimTimSalabim

This is one of my fave sayings in sports. Since its only applicable when someone didn't look at the %s at all.

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11-16-2009 , 01:43 AM

#167

JaredL

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheUntouchable

Does he? He has them winning 40% of the time when they convert and 25% of the time when the Colts don't score from the 30. I'm not sure how that equals 55%.

They only score from the 30 in the 60% where the Pats fail to convert so it's 40% + 60%*25%

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11-16-2009 , 01:44 AM

#168

iggymcfly

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Quote:

Originally Posted by vixticator

Ultimately, it's not the TD% that matters though. It's the percentage of winning the game. Manning could throw a bomb the first play and the Colts could walk in for a TD but if that happens, the Patriots still have a very good chance of getting a FG themselves with the ball and 2:00 remaining.

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11-16-2009 , 01:44 AM

#169

TheUntouchable

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Quote:

Originally Posted by vixticator

Pats have a better chance of winning if the Colts score on the shorter field. Gives more value in going for the 4th down. I don't agree they should have let Addai score though.

I think the 45% you gave the Colts to score after a punt is a bit high actually. I also think the 75% you gave them to score on the 30 is even higher. So I'm still not sure. It's definitely close but I think going for it is still better.

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11-16-2009 , 01:45 AM

#170

Riverman

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Can't wait to hear every idiot from Cowherd to Chris Myers to Dan Patrick to Andrew Sicilidoucherag rip BB.

LOL SPORTS MEDIA

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11-16-2009 , 01:45 AM

#171

ThaSaltCracka

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this thread is really confusing right now especially with everyone using their own hypothetical %'s.

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11-16-2009 , 01:46 AM

#172

vixticator

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

Right. The Pats win after giving up a TD from the 30 more often than after punting and giving up a TD, can we agree on this?

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11-16-2009 , 01:46 AM

#173

MacGuyV

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Originally Posted by feedthabeast

Because it happens every time these two teams play now? Notice how the Colts only beat NE after Archie cried to the NFL about the PI rules and they got changed? Strange coincidence if you ask me. Oh well, nothing will top the 15 yard roughing penalty in the 2006 AFC champ game when Peyton got tapped on the helmet by accident. Just wasn't meant to be tonight, but they'll get them next. Pats dominated the game for so long and are still in a great position to easily lock up the division and make the playoffs for a rematch. Meanwhile the Colts will continue to slide by mediocre teams, and get gifts to beat the good ones (cough*Houston*cough).

lol too bad McGinnis wasn't around to fake another injury.

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11-16-2009 , 01:46 AM

#174

NickMPK

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

one it was first and goal at the 1, the Pats should've let the Colts walk in for a TD
that is what I am saying

Addai ran that play with 36 seconds left.
That's not really enough time to hope you can drive down the field into FG range w/out any time outs. You have a better chance of stopping them on three consecutive plays from 1.

Of course, they shouldn't have tackled Addai at the 1 on the play that started with 1:20 left. It is true it is hard to make that decision in the middle of the play, but MJD made a similar (correct) decision in the middle of a play earlier today (kneeling down at the 1 when he could have walked in for a TD).

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11-16-2009 , 01:48 AM

#175

Bill Murphy

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Originally Posted by chim17

BB didn't exactly sound real confident in the decision being correct either.

I think its a decent decision now, but close.. but I think he made some mistakes in regards to it.

Sounded to me like BB was teethgrinding that he thought they should've got forward progress there.

Agreed 100% with your 2nd sentence. Gonna be very interesting to hear all the commentary from the statheads as well as the Simmons/Mike & Mike types.

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