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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-16-2009, 01:38 AM   #151
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Good luck trying to convince some owner/GM/dongtard of your job security with a printout of conversion rates and some explanation of game theory.

Until that changes or more BBs make more calls like this and they're praised. It will be an uphill battle for mathematical analysis in football.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:38 AM   #152
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by vixticator View Post
lol, really? i don't know if my %'s are right but that's sick.
yeah... you have the Pats winning 55% of the time in either scenario assuming the Pats would have an equal chance of regaining the lead after both scenarios, which I don't think is true
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:38 AM   #153
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

God I absolutely hate Dilfer
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:39 AM   #154
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by TheUntouchable View Post
I don't see how it's possibly equal when putting your numbers in.
40% + (60%*25%) = 55%
Stop after punting = 55%
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:40 AM   #155
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

It should be like 90% agreement on a forum like this.

If it's 65/35 here, lol @ thinking anyone other than BB could get away with this and keep their job.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:40 AM   #156
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
Good luck trying to convince some owner/GM/dongtard of your job security with a printout of conversion rates and some explanation of game theory.

Until that changes or more BBs make more calls like this and they're praised. It will be an uphill battle for mathematical analysis in football.
this

Belichick shows the rings to convince his donktard in charge
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:40 AM   #157
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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yeah... you have the Pats winning 55% of the time in either scenario assuming the Pats would have an equal chance of regaining the lead after both scenarios, which I don't think is true
Does he? He has them winning 40% of the time when they convert and 25% of the time when the Colts don't score from the 30. I'm not sure how that equals 55%.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:40 AM   #158
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
one it was first and goal at the 1, the Pats should've let the Colts walk in for a TD
that is what I am saying
Yeah, that is idiot talk.

Substantiate this. What do you think the probability is for a team to get to the opponents 30 is with ~35s and no TOs. What is your TD % for the Colts?
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:41 AM   #159
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Good call, not really all that close. lol @ sports media.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:41 AM   #160
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I can't imagine Scenario 3 is as high as 45% though.
They have a timeout and two minute warning (maybe?). I think on average there will be 65-70 yards to march. They have time to work the middle a bit. Ehhhhh, 45% is probably too high. I think 25% is too low. IDK.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:42 AM   #161
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Uglyowl View Post
40% + (60%*25%) = 55%
Stop after punting = 55%
Oh ok, that makes sense.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:42 AM   #162
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

It's about a 10% edge to go for it on 4th down.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:42 AM   #163
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

The most laughable was Dungy saying you have to "go with the percentages and punt", when it's clear he has no idea what the percentages are. Although I'm sure it will get even more pathetic in the next 24 hours.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:42 AM   #164
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
one it was first and goal at the 1, the Pats should've let the Colts walk in for a TD
that is what I am saying
thrempisright, youarewrong. c'mon now.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:43 AM   #165
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
yeah... you have the Pats winning 55% of the time in either scenario assuming the Pats would have an equal chance of regaining the lead after both scenarios, which I don't think is true
Pats have a better chance of winning if the Colts score on the shorter field. Gives more value in going for the 4th down. I don't agree they should have let Addai score though.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:43 AM   #166
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by TimTimSalabim View Post
The most laughable was Dungy saying you have to "go with the percentages and punt", when it's clear he has no idea what the percentages are. Although I'm sure it will get even more pathetic in the next 24 hours.
This is one of my fave sayings in sports. Since its only applicable when someone didn't look at the %s at all.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:43 AM   #167
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by TheUntouchable View Post
Does he? He has them winning 40% of the time when they convert and 25% of the time when the Colts don't score from the 30. I'm not sure how that equals 55%.
They only score from the 30 in the 60% where the Pats fail to convert so it's 40% + 60%*25%
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:44 AM   #168
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by vixticator View Post
They have a timeout and two minute warning (maybe?). I think on average there will be 65-70 yards to march. They have time to work the middle a bit. Ehhhhh, 45% is probably too high. I think 25% is too low. IDK.
Ultimately, it's not the TD% that matters though. It's the percentage of winning the game. Manning could throw a bomb the first play and the Colts could walk in for a TD but if that happens, the Patriots still have a very good chance of getting a FG themselves with the ball and 2:00 remaining.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:44 AM   #169
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by vixticator View Post
Pats have a better chance of winning if the Colts score on the shorter field. Gives more value in going for the 4th down. I don't agree they should have let Addai score though.
I think the 45% you gave the Colts to score after a punt is a bit high actually. I also think the 75% you gave them to score on the 30 is even higher. So I'm still not sure. It's definitely close but I think going for it is still better.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:45 AM   #170
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Can't wait to hear every idiot from Cowherd to Chris Myers to Dan Patrick to Andrew Sicilidoucherag rip BB.

LOL SPORTS MEDIA
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:45 AM   #171
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

this thread is really confusing right now especially with everyone using their own hypothetical %'s.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:46 AM   #172
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by iggymcfly View Post
Ultimately, it's not the TD% that matters though. It's the percentage of winning the game. Manning could throw a bomb the first play and the Colts could walk in for a TD but if that happens, the Patriots still have a very good chance of getting a FG themselves with the ball and 2:00 remaining.
Right. The Pats win after giving up a TD from the 30 more often than after punting and giving up a TD, can we agree on this?
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:46 AM   #173
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Because it happens every time these two teams play now? Notice how the Colts only beat NE after Archie cried to the NFL about the PI rules and they got changed? Strange coincidence if you ask me. Oh well, nothing will top the 15 yard roughing penalty in the 2006 AFC champ game when Peyton got tapped on the helmet by accident. Just wasn't meant to be tonight, but they'll get them next. Pats dominated the game for so long and are still in a great position to easily lock up the division and make the playoffs for a rematch. Meanwhile the Colts will continue to slide by mediocre teams, and get gifts to beat the good ones (cough*Houston*cough).
lol too bad McGinnis wasn't around to fake another injury.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:46 AM   #174
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
one it was first and goal at the 1, the Pats should've let the Colts walk in for a TD
that is what I am saying
Addai ran that play with 36 seconds left.
That's not really enough time to hope you can drive down the field into FG range w/out any time outs. You have a better chance of stopping them on three consecutive plays from 1.

Of course, they shouldn't have tackled Addai at the 1 on the play that started with 1:20 left. It is true it is hard to make that decision in the middle of the play, but MJD made a similar (correct) decision in the middle of a play earlier today (kneeling down at the 1 when he could have walked in for a TD).
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:48 AM   #175
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by chim17 View Post
BB didn't exactly sound real confident in the decision being correct either.

I think its a decent decision now, but close.. but I think he made some mistakes in regards to it.
Sounded to me like BB was teethgrinding that he thought they should've got forward progress there.

Agreed 100% with your 2nd sentence. Gonna be very interesting to hear all the commentary from the statheads as well as the Simmons/Mike & Mike types.
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