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 View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt? Yes 344 64.06% No 193 35.94% Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

 11-16-2009, 01:38 AM #151 Thremp banned     Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: I lurve bewbs Posts: 36,452 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? Good luck trying to convince some owner/GM/dongtard of your job security with a printout of conversion rates and some explanation of game theory. Until that changes or more BBs make more calls like this and they're praised. It will be an uphill battle for mathematical analysis in football.
11-16-2009, 01:38 AM   #152
MyTurn2Raise
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by vixticator lol, really? i don't know if my %'s are right but that's sick.
yeah... you have the Pats winning 55% of the time in either scenario assuming the Pats would have an equal chance of regaining the lead after both scenarios, which I don't think is true

 11-16-2009, 01:38 AM #153 Spenda Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Pwnmaha Posts: 15,314 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? God I absolutely hate Dilfer
11-16-2009, 01:39 AM   #154
Uglyowl
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheUntouchable I don't see how it's possibly equal when putting your numbers in.
40% + (60%*25%) = 55%
Stop after punting = 55%

 11-16-2009, 01:40 AM #155 Riverman Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 73,137 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? It should be like 90% agreement on a forum like this. If it's 65/35 here, lol @ thinking anyone other than BB could get away with this and keep their job.
11-16-2009, 01:40 AM   #156
MyTurn2Raise
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Thremp Good luck trying to convince some owner/GM/dongtard of your job security with a printout of conversion rates and some explanation of game theory. Until that changes or more BBs make more calls like this and they're praised. It will be an uphill battle for mathematical analysis in football.
this

Belichick shows the rings to convince his donktard in charge

11-16-2009, 01:40 AM   #157
TheUntouchable
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise yeah... you have the Pats winning 55% of the time in either scenario assuming the Pats would have an equal chance of regaining the lead after both scenarios, which I don't think is true
Does he? He has them winning 40% of the time when they convert and 25% of the time when the Colts don't score from the 30. I'm not sure how that equals 55%.

11-16-2009, 01:40 AM   #158
Thremp
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise one it was first and goal at the 1, the Pats should've let the Colts walk in for a TD that is what I am saying
Yeah, that is idiot talk.

Substantiate this. What do you think the probability is for a team to get to the opponents 30 is with ~35s and no TOs. What is your TD % for the Colts?

 11-16-2009, 01:41 AM #159 mersenneary Food = Love     Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: I'm with you in stockland Posts: 12,187 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? Good call, not really all that close. lol @ sports media.
11-16-2009, 01:41 AM   #160
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheUntouchable I can't imagine Scenario 3 is as high as 45% though.
They have a timeout and two minute warning (maybe?). I think on average there will be 65-70 yards to march. They have time to work the middle a bit. Ehhhhh, 45% is probably too high. I think 25% is too low. IDK.

11-16-2009, 01:42 AM   #161
TheUntouchable
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uglyowl 40% + (60%*25%) = 55% Stop after punting = 55%
Oh ok, that makes sense.

 11-16-2009, 01:42 AM #162 RacersEdge banned     Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Bluff City Posts: 14,289 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? It's about a 10% edge to go for it on 4th down.
 11-16-2009, 01:42 AM #163 TimTimSalabim Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Winning Posts: 14,105 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? The most laughable was Dungy saying you have to "go with the percentages and punt", when it's clear he has no idea what the percentages are. Although I'm sure it will get even more pathetic in the next 24 hours.
11-16-2009, 01:42 AM   #164
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise one it was first and goal at the 1, the Pats should've let the Colts walk in for a TD that is what I am saying
thrempisright, youarewrong. c'mon now.

11-16-2009, 01:43 AM   #165
vixticator
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise yeah... you have the Pats winning 55% of the time in either scenario assuming the Pats would have an equal chance of regaining the lead after both scenarios, which I don't think is true
Pats have a better chance of winning if the Colts score on the shorter field. Gives more value in going for the 4th down. I don't agree they should have let Addai score though.

11-16-2009, 01:43 AM   #166
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TimTimSalabim The most laughable was Dungy saying you have to "go with the percentages and punt", when it's clear he has no idea what the percentages are. Although I'm sure it will get even more pathetic in the next 24 hours.
This is one of my fave sayings in sports. Since its only applicable when someone didn't look at the %s at all.

11-16-2009, 01:43 AM   #167
JaredL
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TheUntouchable Does he? He has them winning 40% of the time when they convert and 25% of the time when the Colts don't score from the 30. I'm not sure how that equals 55%.
They only score from the 30 in the 60% where the Pats fail to convert so it's 40% + 60%*25%

11-16-2009, 01:44 AM   #168
iggymcfly
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by vixticator They have a timeout and two minute warning (maybe?). I think on average there will be 65-70 yards to march. They have time to work the middle a bit. Ehhhhh, 45% is probably too high. I think 25% is too low. IDK.
Ultimately, it's not the TD% that matters though. It's the percentage of winning the game. Manning could throw a bomb the first play and the Colts could walk in for a TD but if that happens, the Patriots still have a very good chance of getting a FG themselves with the ball and 2:00 remaining.

11-16-2009, 01:44 AM   #169
TheUntouchable
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by vixticator Pats have a better chance of winning if the Colts score on the shorter field. Gives more value in going for the 4th down. I don't agree they should have let Addai score though.
I think the 45% you gave the Colts to score after a punt is a bit high actually. I also think the 75% you gave them to score on the 30 is even higher. So I'm still not sure. It's definitely close but I think going for it is still better.

 11-16-2009, 01:45 AM #170 Riverman Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 73,137 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? Can't wait to hear every idiot from Cowherd to Chris Myers to Dan Patrick to Andrew Sicilidoucherag rip BB. LOL SPORTS MEDIA
 11-16-2009, 01:45 AM #171 ThaSaltCracka Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Seatown Posts: 66,878 Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? this thread is really confusing right now especially with everyone using their own hypothetical %'s.
11-16-2009, 01:46 AM   #172
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by iggymcfly Ultimately, it's not the TD% that matters though. It's the percentage of winning the game. Manning could throw a bomb the first play and the Colts could walk in for a TD but if that happens, the Patriots still have a very good chance of getting a FG themselves with the ball and 2:00 remaining.
Right. The Pats win after giving up a TD from the 30 more often than after punting and giving up a TD, can we agree on this?

11-16-2009, 01:46 AM   #173
MacGuyV
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by feedthabeast Because it happens every time these two teams play now? Notice how the Colts only beat NE after Archie cried to the NFL about the PI rules and they got changed? Strange coincidence if you ask me. Oh well, nothing will top the 15 yard roughing penalty in the 2006 AFC champ game when Peyton got tapped on the helmet by accident. Just wasn't meant to be tonight, but they'll get them next. Pats dominated the game for so long and are still in a great position to easily lock up the division and make the playoffs for a rematch. Meanwhile the Colts will continue to slide by mediocre teams, and get gifts to beat the good ones (cough*Houston*cough).
lol too bad McGinnis wasn't around to fake another injury.

11-16-2009, 01:46 AM   #174
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise one it was first and goal at the 1, the Pats should've let the Colts walk in for a TD that is what I am saying
Addai ran that play with 36 seconds left.
That's not really enough time to hope you can drive down the field into FG range w/out any time outs. You have a better chance of stopping them on three consecutive plays from 1.

Of course, they shouldn't have tackled Addai at the 1 on the play that started with 1:20 left. It is true it is hard to make that decision in the middle of the play, but MJD made a similar (correct) decision in the middle of a play earlier today (kneeling down at the 1 when he could have walked in for a TD).

11-16-2009, 01:48 AM   #175
Bill Murphy
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by chim17 BB didn't exactly sound real confident in the decision being correct either. I think its a decent decision now, but close.. but I think he made some mistakes in regards to it.
Sounded to me like BB was teethgrinding that he thought they should've got forward progress there.

Agreed 100% with your 2nd sentence. Gonna be very interesting to hear all the commentary from the statheads as well as the Simmons/Mike & Mike types.

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