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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
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Old 12-07-2009, 02:27 AM   #1176
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

How many more Belichick fails do we need before people start questioning their "math"
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Old 12-07-2009, 02:39 AM   #1177
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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How many more Belichick fails do we need before people start questioning their "math"
Small sample size ldo. We need to wait until the sample is sufficient enough to negate the variance.
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Old 12-07-2009, 02:39 AM   #1178
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

One thing math guys like to do is act like humans are emotionless robots. Example: clutch doesn't exist. The notion that everyone performs exactly the same with pressure/no pressure is laughable (keep in mind this is an argument that some perform worse with added pressure, I can't see how any would perform better with pressure, but "clutch" would still exist in this case because of people who are anti-clutch)

However, head coaches tend to overvalue things like this, and I'd say the math side is closer to the truth in the vast majority of cases. And this doesn't say at all that a random math nerd knows more about football than a head coach.


Definitely not an open invitation to discuss "clutch."
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Old 12-07-2009, 02:49 AM   #1179
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Any pressure the offense feels would also presumably be felt by the defense, so I don't know how you'd quantify that.
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Old 12-07-2009, 02:55 AM   #1180
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Small sample size ldo. We need to wait until the sample is sufficient enough to negate the variance.
I agree with this. But the opposite is also true. Stating that "Always going for it on 4th and short is right" like it is one of Thremp's Ten Commandments is also based on a small, selective sample size that is proving itself to be insufficient.
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Old 12-07-2009, 02:58 AM   #1181
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

well, some are effected more by pressure than others

It's fair to say Mariano Rivera is less prone to be effected by pressure than a random hitter trying to stay in the bigs. But when that hitter gets a 6 year contract maybe he will feel less pressure (but maybe his work ethic will drop too.)

Yes, it's hard to quantify, but like I said it's laughable to assume pressure impacts everyone equally.
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:04 AM   #1182
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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well, some are effected more by pressure than others

It's fair to say Mariano Rivera is less prone to be effected by pressure then a random hitter trying to stay in the bigs. But when that hitter gets a 6 year contract maybe he will feel less pressure (but maybe his work ethic will drop too.)

Yes, it's hard to quantify, but like I said it's laughable to assume pressure impacts everyone equally.
So far, it has been statistically proven that pressure does not impact anyone. People that are considered "clutch" or "not-clutch" just don't have a big enough sample size to prove otherwise.

Baseball is a great example of this, as it is very streaky. People put way too much empathis on the short-term. However, the stats have shown that given enough "high pressure" games, the athletes tend to perform extremely close to how their career stats would indicate.

Therefore, the best way to predict how "clutch" someone is, is based on their career stats.
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:09 AM   #1183
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

lame, you quoted me before I could change "then" to "than"

but no, it has not been statistically proven that pressure does not impact anyone, at least not in all sports, that's an insane claim

should pros be impacted less than college players? yes. college than HS players? yes

as players gain more experience will they be less prone to pressure? yes, that's what you'd expect
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:10 AM   #1184
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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So far, it has been statistically proven that pressure does not impact anyone.
You need to be a lot more careful with your words because this is ridiculous.
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:12 AM   #1185
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

and btw, this argument is useless and only a small part of what I'm talking about

Hitting streaks alone are enough to prove my point (hot/cold streaks as opposed to players performing like the random generator, which one study proved)
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:17 AM   #1186
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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and btw, this argument is useless and only a small part of what I'm talking about

Hitting streaks alone are enough to prove my point (hot/cold streaks as opposed to players performing like the random generator, which one study proved)
So hot/cold streaks accurately predict the future? WOW. I guess I should quit my job and become a professional sports bettor.
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:18 AM   #1187
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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lame, you quoted me before I could change "then" to "than"
I am having trouble locating hos either a "then" or a "than" would make difference in anything I'm quoting, so I am hoping you are talking to someone else. I'm not calming to be an english expert though.
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:20 AM   #1188
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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So hot/cold streaks accurately predict the future? WOW. I guess I should quit my job and become a professional sports bettor.
uh, did you even read my post? My point was humans are not emotionless robots, not clutch exists.
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:21 AM   #1189
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I am having trouble locating hos either a "then" or a "than" would make difference in anything I'm quoting, so I am hoping you are talking to someone else. I'm not calming to be an english expert though.
It doesn't make a difference. I just am a slow post editor and that part was a joke.
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:23 AM   #1190
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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You need to be a lot more careful with your words because this is ridiculous.
I'm not sure what you mean. Everything I have seen indicates that your "clutch" stats will end up being pretty much the same as your career stats, given enough opportunities.

Being "clutch" just means you were lucky enough to run good at the right time.
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:26 AM   #1191
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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uh, did you even read my post? My point was humans are not emotionless robots, not clutch exists.
I agree with this, but statistically, it has yet to be proven that emotion actually has an impact on performance.
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:28 AM   #1192
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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lame, you quoted me before I could change "then" to "than"

but no, it has not been statistically proven that pressure does not impact anyone, at least not in all sports, that's an insane claim

should pros be impacted less than college players? yes. college than HS players? yes

as players gain more experience will they be less prone to pressure? yes, that's what you'd expect
Or perhaps it is that those who cannot handle the pressure just plain suck. Thus why some high schoolers do not make it to college, and why some college players do not make the pro's? Is it because they cannot handle pressure, or that they just aren't as good?

That being said, GM's can also make the same mistakes by acquiring bad players who over-perform in a clutch situation or vice versa.
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:29 AM   #1193
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I agree with this, but statistically, it has yet to be proven that emotion actually has an impact on performance.
assuming the studies on hot/cold streaks are correct (which is what you'd expect anyway) humans are impacted by a lot of different factors and do not perform like the random number generator, hence emotion has an impact on performance
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:50 AM   #1194
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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So far, it has been statistically proven that pressure does not impact anyone.
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Originally Posted by JaredL View Post
You need to be a lot more careful with your words because this is ridiculous.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shoe View Post
I'm not sure what you mean. Everything I have seen indicates that your "clutch" stats will end up being pretty much the same as your career stats, given enough opportunities.

Being "clutch" just means you were lucky enough to run good at the right time.
Think about what you were trying to say and what you actually said.
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Old 12-07-2009, 03:58 AM   #1195
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I agree with this. But the opposite is also true. Stating that "Always going for it on 4th and short is right" like it is one of Thremp's Ten Commandments is also based on a small, selective sample size that is proving itself to be insufficient.
Plz to be explaining what you are talking about here. Find the 4th and short conversion rates across the league this year and prove that it is not worth going for it. Should be easy since you have just claimed that it is not, right?
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Old 12-07-2009, 04:05 AM   #1196
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Old 12-07-2009, 07:22 AM   #1197
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I agree with this. But the opposite is also true. Stating that "Always going for it on 4th and short is right" like it is one of Thremp's Ten Commandments is also based on a small, selective sample size that is proving itself to be insufficient.
Please substantiate any of this. Or is this going to be the nth time is as many attempts where the phrase "rape pozz" comes into play.
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Old 12-07-2009, 08:22 AM   #1198
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

What about yesterday's 4th down decisions? The first one he punted and I thought he should have gone for that one. The second one he went for it and I thought he should have taken the field goal.
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Old 12-07-2009, 09:01 AM   #1199
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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What about yesterday's 4th down decisions? The first one he punted and I thought he should have gone for that one. The second one he went for it and I thought he should have taken the field goal.
Reducing kurtosis is an important aspect when calculating WinExp, a better team with the lead should be punting more often than league average whereas the worse team or a team trailing should be taking going for it more often.

Before anyone accuses me of being a psuedo expert... an actual expert, Chris Brown, wrote about this. As if I had any original ideas.
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Old 12-07-2009, 11:01 AM   #1200
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Why would you expect a head coach to be an expert in every single aspect of the game, in this case game management of fourth down? To become a head coach, you usually have to prove yourself as a position coach, where close to zero game management decisions are made. Then you become a coordinator, where you might have more input on that facet of the game, but in the end the head coach has the final say. Finally you become a head coach, and suddenly it's all on your shoulders. Why should they be experts at this specific task when the vast majority of their competency at lower levels had nothing to do with it? Someone who spent several dozen hours figuring out optimal fourth down decisions may very well be more well versed in making those decisions than a head coach who is more concerned with the other parts of his job.
Good post, and very true in many aspects of upper level management. That is, all the time people rise to CEO with little direct experience in some aspect of the organization. The title doesn't make the CEO suddenly more knowledgeable on said aspect than the specialist.
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