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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-16-2009, 01:09 AM   #76
UATrewqaz
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

As someone else stated, the biggest "mistake" is the 3rd down playcall. If you know you plan on going for it on 4th down you call a different 3rd down play.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:10 AM   #77
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by En Passant View Post
I'm a stats guy and I thought it was incredibly stupid.
I'm a guy with a big c.ock and I thought it was the right play.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:10 AM   #78
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sumpy View Post
The thing that gets me is that a coach finally has the guts to try something, and one of his former players is on TV immediately afterword saying that it was the worst decision that he has ever made.
joe ponsanski would call that fanbole. harrison was probably butthurt that belichick basically told the defense that they're terrible.

i wonder if going for it on 4th and 13 in the 2007 super bowl was worse
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:11 AM   #79
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

slightly disagree.
if the defense had shown anything the prev 2 poss i think they should clearly kick it. but the D was playing so badly that its a minor mistake at best. that combined with our chances of converting 4th and 2 being as good as any team in the league of course.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:11 AM   #80
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Triumph36 View Post
i wonder if going for it on 4th and 13 in the 2007 super bowl was worse
yes easily i still can't believe he did that
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:12 AM   #81
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I'm genuinely shocked at how ******ed this forum is.

HOW ARE YOU ALL IGNORING THE PHANTOM PI CALL??????????
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:13 AM   #82
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quick Google search said 3rd and 2 is about 55% to convert.

If that is the case, are people here really saying that the Colts are an underdog to receive the punt and get back to the same 30 yard line against a no-TD defense?
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:13 AM   #83
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Is it correct that this is the decision:


% of time that Colts score if you punt

vs

(% of time Colts stop you on 4th and 2) x (% of time Colts score if they take over on downs)
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:13 AM   #84
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Lots of recent form bias going into the Manning scoring probabilities.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:14 AM   #85
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

If you're going to go for it on fourth down then please God run it on third.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:14 AM   #86
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
I'm genuinely shocked at how ******ed this forum is.

HOW ARE YOU ALL IGNORING THE PHANTOM PI CALL??????????
Because it's irrelevant to the question here?
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:14 AM   #87
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by disjunction View Post
Quick Google search said 3rd and 2 is about 55% to convert.

If that is the case, are people here really saying that the Colts are an underdog to receive the punt and get back to the same 30 yard line against a no-TD defense?
yes especially with only 1 timeout
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:15 AM   #88
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
I'm genuinely shocked at how ******ed this forum is.

HOW ARE YOU ALL IGNORING THE PHANTOM PI CALL??????????
Because it happens every time these two teams play now? Notice how the Colts only beat NE after Archie cried to the NFL about the PI rules and they got changed? Strange coincidence if you ask me. Oh well, nothing will top the 15 yard roughing penalty in the 2006 AFC champ game when Peyton got tapped on the helmet by accident. Just wasn't meant to be tonight, but they'll get them next. Pats dominated the game for so long and are still in a great position to easily lock up the division and make the playoffs for a rematch. Meanwhile the Colts will continue to slide by mediocre teams, and get gifts to beat the good ones (cough*Houston*cough).
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:16 AM   #89
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
Is it correct that this is the decision:


% of time that Colts score if you punt

vs

(% of time Colts stop you on 4th and 2) x (% of time Colts score if they take over on downs)
Yes, but as I keep pointing out, both of those computations involve scoring from the 30 yard line with plenty of time. So you can simplify, without really losing accuracy, to compare:

% of time Colts stop you

vs

% of time Colts receive a punt and drive back to the 30 yard line.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:16 AM   #90
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by disjunction View Post
Quick Google search said 3rd and 2 is about 55% to convert.

If that is the case, are people here really saying that the Colts are an underdog to receive the punt and get back to the same 30 yard line against a no-TD defense?
I would argue that Brady and the Pats are better than league average, but let's use 55%.

The % of time they can stop from 30 yards out needs to exceed them stopping the 70 by 55%. I just don't see it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:17 AM   #91
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by EPiPeN11 View Post
yes especially with only 1 timeout
His question doesn't even make any sense.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:17 AM   #92
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sumpy View Post
The thing that gets me is that a coach finally has the guts to try something, and one of his former players is on TV immediately afterword saying that it was the worst decision that he has ever made.
because rodney harrison is an idiot. this and dungy saying that you absolutely have to punt makes me lose even more respect for him as a HC

maybe punting is the right call, but by no way is it absolute

Quote:
Originally Posted by UATrewqaz View Post
As someone else stated, the biggest "mistake" is the 3rd down playcall. If you know you plan on going for it on 4th down you call a different 3rd down play.
100% agree

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caldarooni View Post
I'm a guy with a big c.ock and I thought it was the right play.
A+
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:18 AM   #93
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

lol @ francesa.... IMAGINE IF KOTITE DID THIS
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:18 AM   #94
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
His question doesn't even make any sense.
yea
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:18 AM   #95
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
Jesus, I know you all think I'm a ****** but going for it there is clearly correct, all the other clock management decisions aside. It's really not close. And of course it's already started on ESPN, "OMG THING OF THE MESSAGE SENT TO THE DEFENSE!"
This. It is not even a close decision.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:19 AM   #96
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by feedthabeast View Post
Because it happens every time these two teams play now? Notice how the Colts only beat NE after Archie cried to the NFL about the PI rules and they got changed? Strange coincidence if you ask me. Oh well, nothing will top the 15 yard roughing penalty in the 2006 AFC champ game when Peyton got tapped on the helmet by accident. Just wasn't meant to be tonight, but they'll get them next. Pats dominated the game for so long and are still in a great position to easily lock up the division and make the playoffs for a rematch. Meanwhile the Colts will continue to slide by mediocre teams, and get gifts to beat the good ones (cough*Houston*cough).
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:20 AM   #97
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

one question: if your are a defensive player on that last play and you think the guy you are covering has any chance of catching the game winning TD don't u just tackle the guy and take the PI?
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:20 AM   #98
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gumpzilla View Post
That whole series and the aftermath was a horrendous botch-up and played incredibly inconsistently.

If you're scared enough of Peyton that you want to make a ballsy push on 4th to go for it, the play calling on 3rd was execrable. If you know you're going to go for it on 4th they should be rushing it twice and burning some additional clock as well.
why? how does burning 5 seconds of clock help you? even if there was no 2min warning effect and you could burn 40 sec of clock, how does that help you? 1:20 from the 30 is not significantly more difficult than 2min from the 30.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:20 AM   #99
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Since when does punting guarantee the Colts have to go 70 yards btw?
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:21 AM   #100
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Watching the replay I think it's pretty clear he gained possession at a spot much further up the field than it was spotted.

Could have very well gotten it.

not relevant to the discussion though
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