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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-18-2009, 04:48 AM   #826
Max Raker
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
Would it be better if I instead thought to myself: "Wai kno 1 maek funsies yet? I r maeeek jopke. lalalalaolololaolol" And then typed something that was funny half the time and a waste of 7s of every reader's time otherwise?

Alternatively, why u so mean to meh? That was really good analysis ldo.
i thought what you said was idiotically obvoious. so i made a joke about it, but i dont post here much so maybe it was not a waste of time to post it
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Old 11-18-2009, 04:51 AM   #827
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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i thought what you said was idiotically obvoious. so i made a joke about it, but i dont post here much so maybe it was not a waste of time to post it
lol @ u
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Old 11-18-2009, 04:53 AM   #828
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I think there is room for an application of what you guys would consider game theory (I'm assuming you care about situations that suggest randomized strategies) in terms of playcalling, perhaps.
I feel like if we are going to call this "game theory" we might as well call whatver reason you should kick a PAT with no time left left in a tie game an application of game theory.
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Old 11-18-2009, 05:04 AM   #829
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I feel like if we are going to call this "game theory" we might as well call whatver reason you should kick a PAT with no time left left in a tie game an application of game theory.
when there are players deploying strategies to achieve objectives, and our goal as curious outsiders is to understand and describe just what the heck is going on, one of our best strategies requires the language and tools of game theory (broadly construed). note that game theory is not necessarily required to discover what strategies within a given game are best -- the formalism of game theory was not helpful in discovering its own usefulness, for instance -- but it is a nice descriptive aid.

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i thought what you said was idiotically obvoious
almost everyone should do nothing but repeat what is obvious because as soon as they stop they forget.

can someone just switch my avatar to Buzz Killington?
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Old 11-18-2009, 05:06 AM   #830
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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lol @ u
sorry.... what i though you said "people are leaving out....." was something that i thought nobody was leaving out. so i made a snarky post about it. probably was not warrented....
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Old 11-18-2009, 05:07 AM   #831
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Max Raker View Post
I feel like if we are going to call this "game theory" we might as well call whatver reason you should kick a PAT with no time left left in a tie game an application of game theory.
There are players, strategies and payoffs so why not?

The prisoners' dilemma is pretty damn simple as well and would definitely be considered game theory.
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Old 11-18-2009, 05:09 AM   #832
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-and-authority

http://www.ordinary-gentlemen.com/20...tional-wisdom/

There is a great gem in the 2nd. Ups to the first person who finds it.
I like to think the second one is a whole fuzzy gem of fail
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Old 11-18-2009, 05:15 AM   #833
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

the comments in that 2nd one are such a trainwreck.
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Old 11-18-2009, 05:19 AM   #834
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by VanVeen View Post
when there are players deploying strategies to achieve objectives, and our goal as curious outsiders is to understand and describe just what the heck is going on, one of our best strategies requires the language and tools of game theory (broadly construed). note that game theory is not necessarily required to discover what strategies within a given game are best -- the formalism of game theory was not helpful in discovering its own usefulness, for instance -- but it is a nice descriptive aid.
i always think when people say "game theory" in these situations, they mean something they aren't going to explain, when it is actually trivial to explain


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almost everyone should do nothing but repeat what is obvious because as soon as they stop they forget.
Woops, you sould like a philosophy kid, in which case i have no idea what i am talking about because i used a language to express it
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Old 11-18-2009, 05:29 AM   #835
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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There are players, strategies and payoffs so why not?

The prisoners' dilemma is pretty damn simple as well and would definitely be considered game theory.
prisoners dilemma is mildly interesting... if you construct a football example as mildly interesting i'll think about it the same but this decision is pretty boring .
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Old 11-18-2009, 05:42 AM   #836
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I am arguing that the urge to dispute several decades of received wisdom and experience is what is driving this sports contrarianism, not a supposedly hyper-rational appreciation of the facts.
kidcolin,

any dispassionate hyper-rational analyst whose one and only objective was to answer the question, ''what should bill belichek have done in this particular instance if his one and only objective was to win this specific football game?" would not be able to provide a definitive answer. they would instead offer up a probability distribution of answers given what we know about the usefulness and reliability of the available evidence and methods. unsurprisingly, that sort of talk is not seen because it is boring, unpersuasive, and signals an unwillingness to accept the ''spirit of the conversation'', i.e., a refusal to participate in the social game that has sprung up around this super exciting event (i think he should probably just punt the god damn ball, if you're wondering; expressed well, it makes the most friends).

what i find so interesting about this thread is how people choose to play this game (this relates directly to pb's talk of business; perhaps more later) around the game. "I Believe In EV!" "Conventional Wisdom Aint So Crazy" "Meta-Analysis of EV vs. CW/Im Smarter Than All", all of these are techniques people use to..

well, you can finish the thought. bedtime for buzz.
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Old 11-18-2009, 06:16 AM   #837
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

1`q
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Old 11-18-2009, 06:19 AM   #838
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I doubt that creating an algorithm to make play calls would lead to better decisions; unless it was extraordinarily specific. You wouldn't have time to plug in the variables. If you got Randy Moss matched up against a poor cornerback and noticed the defense was in a specific alignment you wouldn't want to run whatever the algorithm determines and obviously change the play.
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Old 11-18-2009, 08:34 AM   #839
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

The reason this is not a game theory situation is because there is only one decision maker, kids, the Colts aren't "playing" this round. There are game theory aspects to other parts of football, obviously.
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Old 11-18-2009, 09:00 AM   #840
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I really wish someone would ask BB about Dilfer's comments, just so he could say that he would have punted if Trent Dilfer's was playing quarterback for either team and understands why he's confused about how the strategy changes with a competent player at quarterback for either team.
vn
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Old 11-18-2009, 09:44 AM   #841
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Peter King comes close to realizing he's an idiot after he compared Belichick to Grady Little....

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I'd like to thank many of you for pointing out what a math dolt I am. Quoting John Roumas of Leominster, Mass., "Regarding your analysis of the odds for BB's decision: Using your own odds, 65 percent Brady makes the two yards. 35 percent Manning drives 72 yards. That would make Manning's odds of NOT driving 72 yards 65 percent, which sounds like a tie. Also, the odds of Hansen getting off a good punt with no (or negligible) return aren't 100 percent, and on the other side, Manning's chances of scoring even from the Pats' 30 aren't 100 percent either. Those numbers would tell me that BB made a good choice, odds-wise.''

OK. My base disagreement with the call is that I think the situation that most favors the Patriots is forcing Manning to drive the Colts 72 yards to score a touchdown in two minutes with one timeout. (I arrive at 72 yards by factoring in Chris Hanson's average net punt on the day, which was 44 yards on four punts.) And yes, my math in MMQB basically was nearly a wash.

I've read the intelligent piece on advancednflstats.com about the call being right and smart. I respect the numbers -- but wouldn't live by them. They are based on football statistics over time, not on what was happening in this particular game. Why use the historical average net punt of 38 yards when Hanson's average net for the night, for four punts, was 44 yards? Why take every drive instead of focusing on what the Colts had done that night? Over the previous 32 minutes, the Colts, in inverse order, went touchdown, interception, touchdown, punt, interception, punt and punt.

I'm not saying the mathematical theory is wrong; it's not. I just think there's a certain amount of playing by feel. And I could not have a feeling to not punt in that situation because of the imminent consequences of failure. Would Manning drive it 72 yards on me? Maybe. But I'll take my chances on a 72-yard drive -- after picking off Manning twice in the second half -- over converting a fourth down and risk giving him a 29-yard field.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ail/index.html
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Old 11-18-2009, 10:35 AM   #842
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by primetimenole View Post
Peter King comes close to realizing he's an idiot after he compared Belichick to Grady Little....



http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ail/index.html
I see a lot of people in the media doing this. They completely blasted BB at first. They see the math. Then they say...oh yea well, I saw the math...but I'm still right...because of intangibles...and the feel of the game...and Peyton Manning on the other side...yea.
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Old 11-18-2009, 10:58 AM   #843
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I voted earier that yes that I agreed with going for it on 4th down. And have in various places seen that mathematically going for it is slightly better than punting.

So now I'm thinking, with all the distractions that have occurred, as a result of taking the unconventional (albeit mathematically correct) option, was it really worth it?

And it's hard for me to answer my own rhetorical question as Belichick is so good at keeping his team focused and ignoring the distractions. But I'll bet a fair amount of time and energy is/was being expended on the backlash from this.
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Old 11-18-2009, 11:09 AM   #844
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

i'm pretty sure belichick gives very close to 0% of a **** what anyone else thinks, and i doubt he lets any possible backlash prevent him from making the correct in-game decision. there's just no way.
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Old 11-18-2009, 11:09 AM   #845
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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So now I'm thinking, with all the distractions that have occurred, as a result of taking the unconventional (albeit mathematically correct) option, was it really worth it?
the upside is winning the game, the downside is...media distractions? he'll take that tradeoff any day
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Old 11-18-2009, 11:26 AM   #846
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I'd like to say that Thremp is such a good poster when he's posting like this.
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Old 11-18-2009, 11:31 AM   #847
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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There are players, strategies and payoffs so why not?
As cool as it sounds coming from poker players, not every situation is a game theory problem. Game theory != All decision making.
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Old 11-18-2009, 11:33 AM   #848
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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balance of the evidence makes “Adam Dunn is a below average player” a likely proposition
From Thremp's linked 2nd blog.
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Old 11-18-2009, 11:35 AM   #849
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Hypothesis: Thremp is one of the most socially awkward people on earth IRL.
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Old 11-18-2009, 11:49 AM   #850
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I voted earier that yes that I agreed with going for it on 4th down. And have in various places seen that mathematically going for it is slightly better than punting.

So now I'm thinking, with all the distractions that have occurred, as a result of taking the unconventional (albeit mathematically correct) option, was it really worth it?

And it's hard for me to answer my own rhetorical question as Belichick is so good at keeping his team focused and ignoring the distractions. But I'll bet a fair amount of time and energy is/was being expended on the backlash from this.
I'm not sure slightly is correct. I think it's significantly better and I'm quite sure that on the inside, this is no longer a distraction. Belichick is so good at getting his team to focus, all they're thinking now is how to beat the Jets.
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