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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-16-2009, 01:00 AM   #51
Riverman
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

And of course it's "lol riverman what a douche," but THE GAME WAS OVER BEFORE THE BULL**** PASS INTERFERENCE CALL THAT EXTENDED THE GAME.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:00 AM   #52
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK View Post
Also, regardless of the right play, how many coaches in nfl would go for it there?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMk5sMHj58I
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:00 AM   #53
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

BB didn't exactly sound real confident in the decision being correct either.

I think its a decent decision now, but close.. but I think he made some mistakes in regards to it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:00 AM   #54
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by istewart View Post
yup

you bet your ass BB knows game theory
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:00 AM   #55
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Etats360 View Post
Ok, I'll try this again.

A= % chance the 4th down conversion works for the pats.
B = % chance the Colts can score a TD getting the ball from the ~ 30 yard line
C= % chance the colts can score a TD getting the ball from the ~70 yard line (IND's 30 yard line)

IF A-(1-A)*B > C, you go for it
This is close, but not exactly right. If the Pats go for it on 4th down and miss, then Indianapolis will tend to score more quickly, meaning that New England will have a better chance of leading another drive of their own and winning the game even if the Colts score a TD.

Really, what we need ITT is someone who does a lot of live betting on exchanges. Does anyone know what the price was on the Colts after the Pats went for it on 4th down and missed? And where would you ballpark it after a punt? I'm guessing some of the sports betting pros that bet a lot on Matchbook would have a really, really good idea what B and C are. As for A, I'd say it's almost definitely between 60% and 65%.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:00 AM   #56
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I think the clock affected his decision. If they were just under 2 mins, he punts it. But punting it there effectively gives the Colts two TO's, and with a red hot Peyton, thats a pretty nasty advantage. Still think punting is the right move though since you are forcing the Colts to score from a much worse location.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:01 AM   #57
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by TheUntouchable View Post
I'm starting to think it's a good decision. I think it's almost a coinflip that they convert and win the game right there. Adding in that the Colts aren't a lock to score from the 30 than it seems to make it a good decision. This is definitely very interesting.
Yeah, but he's much less of a lock from 70 yards out.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:01 AM   #58
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by iggymcfly View Post
This is close, but not exactly right. If the Pats go for it on 4th down and miss, then Indianapolis will tend to score more quickly, meaning that New England will have a better chance of leading another drive of their own and winning the game even if the Colts score a TD.
this
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:01 AM   #59
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

MT2R just derailing this with loltarded trollz.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:01 AM   #60
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I'm kinda torn on this one.

In general I agree with the consensus here that 4th and 1 or 2 should be gone for a LOT more often than it is in the NFL.

In this case, if the ball is at midfield, I definitely go. Maybe even from my own 40.

From my 28 I kick it and if Peyton goes 70-ish in two minutes I tip my cap.

The thing is, Peyton wasn't perfect tonight, he'd already been picked twice. What message does this send to the defense?...
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:02 AM   #61
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK View Post
Also, regardless of the right play, how many coaches in nfl would go for it there?
1 IMO
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:02 AM   #62
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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the bad decision was to not let the Colts walk into the endzone when they got to the 2
stopping the Colts on 4 plays from the 2
<<<<<<<
letting them score and having 30 seconds with no TOs to get a FG
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:02 AM   #63
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

word. SE is like bizzaro SB. Greear and iggy outlogicing MT2R :P
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:03 AM   #64
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I think it's the correct decision but what's more interesting to me will be the huge disparity between this 2p2 poll and the inevitable poll that will be run sometime this week by ESPN.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:03 AM   #65
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
MT2R just derailing this with loltarded trollz.
nope... people are focusing on the wrong decision

I'm sure the go for it on 4th is going to be real close.
However, letting the Colts score once they were at the 2 was easy peazy
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:03 AM   #66
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by iggymcfly View Post
This is close, but not exactly right. If the Pats go for it on 4th down and miss, then Indianapolis will tend to score more quickly, meaning that New England will have a better chance of leading another drive of their own and winning the game even if the Colts score a TD.
Yeah you're right, but it's such a small amount that it's extremely hard to quantify.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:04 AM   #67
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

If he punts there, I don't think you guys that are saying how smart it is would be jumping down his throat for NOT going for it there. When it was happening, the collective reaction was how big of balls BB had, not "well obv, x-2(x-.67) ainec"
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:04 AM   #68
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I'm a stats guy and I thought it was incredibly stupid.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:04 AM   #69
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
nope... people are focusing on the wrong decision

I'm sure the go for it on 4th is going to be real close.
However, letting the Colts score once they were at the 2 was easy peazy
lol
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:06 AM   #70
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Do the opposite of what your opponent wants. If you polled them, I am sure they would rather have had them punt, so they went for it. Perfect game theory imo.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:07 AM   #71
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I like it but agree that it's close and Bellichick maybe handled it wrong. Put the game on your team's shoulders and try to make a play instead of punting and praying that Manning doesn't rip you apart like he had on basically every other drive late in the game.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:07 AM   #72
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Grunch: Yes.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:08 AM   #73
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I think it was the right decision and it is not close. Here is my quick thinking:

Punt and try to stop Manning = 40%-60% win
-------------------

Go for it and convert = 60%
Go for it and miss, but still hold= 20%

60% + (40%*20) = 68%
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:08 AM   #74
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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WTF
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:08 AM   #75
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

The thing that gets me is that a coach finally has the guts to try something, and one of his former players is on TV immediately afterword saying that it was the worst decision that he has ever made.
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