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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:06 PM   #476
Mister Havisham
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
I was saying to my woman when Belichick came out ready to go for it on 4th that he is the only coach who can get away with it due to his recent past success
What do you mean by "get away with it"? Not get fired midseason??? U guys are overestimating how much aggressive 4th down decisionmaking weakens an NFL coach's job security.

while a coach of an underachieving team who makes unconventional fourth down decisions is more likely to be fired than someone who follows mainstream thinking on an equally underachieving team, the increased chances of winning football games makes up for that to some degree.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:10 PM   #477
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Mister Havisham View Post
What do you mean by "get away with it"? Not get fired midseason??? U guys are overestimating how much aggressive 4th down decisionmaking weakens an NFL coach's job security.

while a coach of an underachieving team who makes unconventional fourth down decisions is more likely to be fired than someone who follows mainstream thinking on an equally underachieving team, the increased chances of winning football games makes up for that to some degree.
Not really.. lets say over the course of the game you make decisions that give you a 10% edge in the game... but these decisions are commonly accepted as horrible.

You think you'll realize enough actual wins in your career to make up for that? You need to be completely established with complete job security to go that route.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:10 PM   #478
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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The issue is that you're putting a huge part of the win probability of the game into one play which takes place immediately. Because of risk aversion, people on both sides don't want to do that -- they would rather have the risk spread over a larger number of future plays, even if that decreases their win probability. Hence the illogical "BB is gambling recklessly" comments -- folks can't see that it's a gamble either way, since they are incapable of weighing short term risks versus overall win probabilities. So that's how you can have both sets of fans wanting the Pats to punt there, and neither can see the inherent contradiction.
A+

There are so many situations in life where people end up gambling more in their quest not to gamble.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:13 PM   #479
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

God, the average fan tilts me so much. From another board:

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Your attempt to get some kind of win out of this makes it even more enjoyable. As for whether he was right or wrong, listen to the airwaves. Analysts and coaches alike disagree that "he was right." I'll take the word of career coaches over a math problem.
Yeah, except for the best coach of the last 10 years who made the decision to go for it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:15 PM   #480
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

This whole episode proves beyond any doubt that most people, even very successful people, are ****ing ******ed and have no natural instinct towards critical thinking.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:18 PM   #481
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Not really.. lets say over the course of the game you make decisions that give you a 10% edge in the game... but these decisions are commonly accepted as horrible.

You think you'll realize enough actual wins in your career to make up for that? You need to be completely established with complete job security to go that route.
Yep, there's a very good chance that one of those controversial 10% edge calls will fail in a big situation, and that's all people will remember.

What do you think will happen when a coach who turns a 8-8 team in a 10-6 team makes a controversial decision in the conference championship game? He'll be blamed for ruining a 10-6 season, and get no credit for getting his team as far as he did.

You could have a coach with a team that has a horrible defense, but is capable of converting 70% of their 2-pt conversions, and the coach would still be crucified if he went for the winning 2-pt conversion at the end of the game and failed.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:19 PM   #482
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by slickpoppa View Post
It's nearly inevitable that one of those controversial 10% edge calls will fail in a big situation, and that's all people will remember.

What do you think will happen when a coach who turns a 8-8 team in a 10-6 team makes a controversial decision in the conference championship game? He'll be blamed for ruining a 10-6 season, and get no credit for getting his team as far as he did.
Right, a 10% edge in decisions alone is enormous.. but probably not worth it for most coaches. We aren't running 100 instances of a coaches career here.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:20 PM   #483
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
This whole episode proves beyond any doubt that most people, even very successful people, are ****ing ******ed and have no natural instinct towards critical thinking.
this. i'm reminded of david sklansky's gem of a quote from a. alvarez's 'the biggest game in town', he said this in 1980:

"I [can't work in business because I] was always being told what to do by incompetent people, and I hated it. The world is full of idiots, and I can't handle it."
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:27 PM   #484
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
This whole episode proves beyond any doubt that most people, even very successful people, are ****ing ******ed and have no natural instinct towards critical thinking.
Eh. I've been following this board for years and understand and agree with the prevalent opinion regarding basically every 4th down decision yet at the time I thought it was the wrong call. Looking at the numbers now I see that it was actually correct, but it was close enough either way that it's going to be tough to sway people from their initial feeling.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:27 PM   #485
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
This whole episode proves beyond any doubt that most people, even very successful people, are ****ing ******ed and have no natural instinct towards critical thinking.
It's quite incredible. I'm in an email thread with some friends of mine, all of whom are incredibly smart and even critical thinkers of some sort. 1 is a Lawyer, 1 got 1600 SATs, 1 is football nut and 800 math SAT. Way above your typical sports mouthbreathers. First email was how horrible the decision was, and LOL Belichick. I show them the numbers (came up with on my own, and were even more slanted towards Indy than the website linked here), and it still came up as an easy decision. All three are telling me that the stats mean nothing, it was all emotion, and Indy scores 100% of the time after they fail when going for it. You cannot give them the ball on the 28, no matter what. "Even if it is 4th and 1 inch, and you will make it 95% of the time?" Yes, even then it's foolish, you cannot take that chance.

Absolutely amazing what a different mindset there is out there. We will never understand it. And even if they are smart people, that mindset of being able to gamble when it makes sense just is not there. People do not want to make decisions that could result in bad things, and will make alternate worse decisions, as long as the bad consequences are more "indirect".
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:29 PM   #486
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Semtex View Post
Eh. I've been following this board for years and understand and agree with the prevalent opinion regarding basically every 4th down decision yet at the time I thought it was the wrong call. Looking at the numbers now I see that it was actually correct, but it was close enough either way that it's going to be tough to sway people from their initial feeling.
The fact that most people form a snap opinion based on selective biases and then will never deviate from that opinion regardless of what a more thoughtful analysis is pretty much exactly what Riverman is talking about. It's not that people thought that it was a slightly bad decision, they practically called the greatest coach of the past 10 years a giant flaming ****** who is barely smart enough to tie his own shoes, and then refuse to even back down an inch.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:30 PM   #487
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Triumph36 View Post
this. i'm reminded of david sklansky's gem of a quote from a. alvarez's 'the biggest game in town', he said this in 1980:

"I [can't work in business because I] was always being told what to do by incompetent people, and I hated it. The world is full of idiots, and I can't handle it."
Wow, that's a ****ing solid quote. I've been waiting for this moment for a long time to see how terribad the reaction would be. Inevitably, a coach that really understands football would finally make this play and it would blow up. I just can't believe it finally happened. The reaction is almost like a nuclear holocaust of critical thinking.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:32 PM   #488
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by MacGuyV View Post
It's just sort of bitter sweet as a Pats hater. Great that they lost, but my head is going to explode listening/reading any analysis from media donks.
I'm solidly with you. **** BB but now I think he's awesome.



Quote:
Originally Posted by chim17 View Post
Yup, BB clearly had no plan with what to do if they failed on third down.. and that certainly cost them a non-negligible amount of EV.
I think I agree with this but I'm not sure that two short pass plays is worse than something involving running. We'd need to know a distribution of each play. That reminds me that somebody like the advancednflstats guy should be the guy deciding which plays to call. I'm not saying the offensive coordinator because there's more to it than that but it seems like an algorithm that picks the plays (or at least suggests one) by using their results distributions could be better than any coach just choosing the plays without that.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:33 PM   #489
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I'm solidly with you. **** BB but now I think he's awesome.





I think I agree with this but I'm not sure that two short pass plays is worse than something involving running. We'd need to know a distribution of each play. That reminds me that somebody like the advancednflstats guy should be the guy deciding which plays to call. I'm not saying the offensive coordinator because there's more to it than that but it seems like an algorithm that picks the plays (or at least suggests one) by using their results distributions could be better than any coach just choosing the plays without that.
The part in reference to me is debatable and I kinda agree.. but using a timeout and not trying to run the play immediately before Indy was prepared was clearly worse. He simply didn't have a plan for when they failed on 3rd down. Not even taking playcalls into account.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:35 PM   #490
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Triumph36 View Post
this. i'm reminded of david sklansky's gem of a quote from a. alvarez's 'the biggest game in town', he said this in 1980:

"I [can't work in business because I] was always being told what to do by incompetent people, and I hated it. The world is full of idiots, and I can't handle it."
On a similar note, I am also reminded of Sklansky's gem of a quote from TPFAP:

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If you don't know how I got that, stop reading this book right now. You are not ready for it. You don't know enough about poker. And, you deserve to lose.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:38 PM   #491
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Ken Wisenhunt would have thought long and hard about it. Not sure if he would have gone for it, but he's made unconventional decisions in the past.
Yeah Wisenhunt would def. consider doing it...he also loves trick plays
Esp if it was like in the playoffs vs. an offense like New Orleans etc.

What would be a sick sick play call is if it is the same type of setup...4th and 1
You run the play from several years ago where Warner pretends like he is just trying to get the offsides, then acts like he is walking off the field but he is actually going in motion - direct snap it to Beanie/Hightower...1st down.

I'd say it is
BB
McDaniels def.
Wisenhunt
Sean Peyton maybe
Tomlin?
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:41 PM   #492
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Almost certainly not Tomlin.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:42 PM   #493
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by istewart View Post
On a similar note, I am also reminded of Sklansky's gem of a quote from TPFAP:
That's awesome. Is that from the chapter about only he's allowed to fold aces preflop?
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:43 PM   #494
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Yeah Wisenhunt would def. consider doing it...he also loves trick plays
Esp if it was like in the playoffs vs. an offense like New Orleans etc.

What would be a sick sick play call is if it is the same type of setup...4th and 1
You run the play from several years ago where Warner pretends like he is just trying to get the offsides, then acts like he is walking off the field but he is actually going in motion - direct snap it to Beanie/Hightower...1st down
.

I'd say it is
BB
McDaniels def.
Wisenhunt
Sean Peyton maybe
Tomlin?
isn't that play illegal now?
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:44 PM   #495
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Almost certainly not Tomlin.
He might if his defense was really bad. But he loves defense and would trust it 100000000000000% to stop them.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:45 PM   #496
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by clowntable View Post

Wow, less close than I expected. Goes to show I'm bad with numbers. I've always wondered why no NFL team has any mathematicians on staff for this kind of stuff (up in the booth, dunno how many people are allowed to be in there etc. but it would certainly make sense)

Doesn't BB have a mathematician/stat-guy in the booth? I remember hearing that he his main 'advisor' at game time was a number cruncher.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:47 PM   #497
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Semtex View Post
Eh. I've been following this board for years and understand and agree with the prevalent opinion regarding basically every 4th down decision yet at the time I thought it was the wrong call. Looking at the numbers now I see that it was actually correct, but it was close enough either way that it's going to be tough to sway people from their initial feeling.
I did too at the time, mainly because the Colts had been sputtering throughout the game and I put their chance at making a mistake much higher with the longer field. But looking at the numbers there's really no way to make them work out in favor of punting.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:47 PM   #498
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

BB has definitely read the studies about 4th down, and based on this, apparently taken it to heart.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:48 PM   #499
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I really don't think it was that bad of a call.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:50 PM   #500
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I don't need no stinking math problem to tell me to play the percentages
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