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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-16-2009, 02:18 PM   #426
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by ConstantineX View Post
Yes, there is -- I'm not calling the Belichick decision BAD. What I'm saying is that the mathematical calculations in this thread prove nothing, because the EVs given are swamped by the nonlinear combination of the uncertainties. With only 5% uncertainty in the probabilities, I just showed that decision given by one set of parameters is statistically indistinguishable from the decision given by a different set. If we call the "null" or default model in this situation punting, we can't reject it on math alone. Appealing to Belichick's instincts and intuition as a Hall of Fame football coach is a much better justification. The point is, the call is just not obvious.
Well the advanced nfl stats model (although flawed for other reasons) is based upon huge amounts of raw data and it underestimates how likely the pats are to convert and how likely the colts are to score and it pretty clearly shows going for it is better.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:20 PM   #427
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by KirkVanHouten View Post
Guy in the media who liked the call:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ml?eref=sircrc
Posnaski is so awesome.

KC used to have the most boring milquetoast sports commentators in the country, then we stumbled onto Posnaski and Whitlock (who is at least always entertaining, if not generally accurate, and nails race issues pretty well). Major positive variance.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:22 PM   #428
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by KirkVanHouten View Post
Guy in the media who liked the call:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ml?eref=sircrc
Only place I've seen an EV calculation from a mainstream source.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:24 PM   #429
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

?
AFC Championship game this year...Colts vs. Pats

Pats up by 5 with 1:52 left...no timeouts for Indy
4 and 1 at the Pats 15 yard line
The two prior Colts drives ended in TDs

Does BB go for it and end the game or punt and give the ball back to Manning at say maybe the 50 yard line?

does it change if it is 4th and inches?
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:26 PM   #430
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
Only place I've seen an EV calculation from a mainstream source.
He even tears apart Peter King's math at the end. Such a badass. King is such a moron. Doesn't he have an editor who understands simple probability/logic/math who can vet that stuff before it goes to print?

He posted the same article on his blog, and at least from the comments, most of his readers seem to get it: http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009.../going-for-it/

Last edited by suzzer99; 11-16-2009 at 02:38 PM.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:27 PM   #431
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

how many coaches in the league understand going for it is correct but wouldn't because it could cost them their job? I say 10+
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:29 PM   #432
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Artdogg View Post
how many coaches in the league understand going for it is correct but wouldn't because it could cost them their job? I say 10+
i'd be surprised if it were 5. you vastly overestimate the intelligence of a group that includes andy reid and brad childress.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:29 PM   #433
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by | Burton | View Post
?
AFC Championship game this year...Colts vs. Pats

Pats up by 5 with 1:52 left...no timeouts for Indy
4 and 1 at the Pats 15 yard line
The two prior Colts drives ended in TDs

Does BB go for it and end the game or punt and give the ball back to Manning at say maybe the 50 yard line?

does it change if it is 4th and inches?
He goes for it again imo
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:31 PM   #434
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Triumph36 View Post
i'd be surprised if it were 5. you vastly overestimate the intelligence of a group that includes andy reid and brad childress.
I bet a lot of them know that 4th down play isn't currently optimal.

Most coaches are not coaching to win.. they are coaching to not get fired.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:31 PM   #435
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by bschr04 View Post
Peter King on math:

"Let's place the odds of Brady getting two yards at 60, 65 percent. The odds of Manning going 72 yards to score a touchdown in less than two minutes (given a punt) ... that's maybe 35 percent."

"All in all, I hated the call."

Can you find the flaw in this logic?
lol
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:33 PM   #436
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

The worst part is that he did a really good job of picking percentages.

/edit (except where he gave the Colts a 100+% chance of scoring from the 30 ldo)
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:34 PM   #437
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by chim17 View Post
I bet a lot of them know that 4th down play isn't currently optimal.

Most coaches are not coaching to win.. they are coaching to not get fired.
i'll agree with that, but i feel that most of these guys are from the tony dungy school, which wouldn't've even considered going for it here. on 4th down you just bring your punter or field goal kicker out.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:34 PM   #438
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
He even tears apart Peter King's math at the end. Such a badass. King is such a moron. Doesn't he have an editor who understands simple probability/logic/math who can vet that stuff before it goes to print?
Considering Peter King said that the Steelers "kayoed" Cedric Benson I don't think so.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:37 PM   #439
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Wow...trying to argue this on the ESPN Pats board is such a lost cause. The idiots on there + the Colts trolls is making my head hurt. Why do I bother?
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:37 PM   #440
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I don't think its possible to underestimate the amount of instinctual critical thinking that occurs within the minds of most NFL head coaches.

I'm very confident it would not even occur to over 25 current NFL coaches to think about going for it there. Other than BB:

Josh McDaniels
...?
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:40 PM   #441
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by feedthabeast View Post
Wow...trying to argue this on the ESPN Pats board is such a lost cause. The idiots on there + the Colts trolls is making my head hurt. Why do I bother?
http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/index.php

This board is light years ahead of any Chiefs forum I've found in terms of intelligent/non-irrationally-emotional posters, you might check it out. Just don't give it away to the morons on the other boards.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:40 PM   #442
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by PLAYOFFS View Post

It's a terrible call based upon the previous play calling as previously stated. I don't think anyone can disagree with that.
i disagree with that. in fact, i'll go so far as to strongly disagree with the idea that the 3rd down play was obviously bad (knowing that they'd go for it on 4th).

i honestly think that the pats are probably like 85-90% to get 2 yds going pass/pass in that situation and less than that going run/run...especially considering the defense is going to be concentrating on stopping run.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:41 PM   #443
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
I don't think its possible to underestimate the amount of instinctual critical thinking that occurs within the minds of most NFL head coaches.

I'm very confident it would not even occur to over 25 current NFL coaches to think about going for it there. Other than BB:

Josh McDaniels
...?
It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:42 PM   #444
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Triumph36 View Post
i'd be surprised if it were 5. you vastly overestimate the intelligence of a group that includes andy reid and brad childress.
I would just about die laughing if Reid went for it and just ran Westbrook into a wall of defenders for a two yard loss.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:44 PM   #445
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

What's really interesting is that the Belichick call is clearly right and kneeling at the 1 is very very close.


If you score at the 1, team has has around 15% chance for a td. 50% on 2 point conversion. And 50% in overtime. Thats like 3%. I think you miss at least 3% of those chipshots.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:46 PM   #446
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by J_V View Post
What's really interesting is that the Belichick call is clearly right and kneeling at the 1 is very very close.


If you score at the 1, team has has around 15% chance for a td. 50% on 2 point conversion. And 50% in overtime. Thats like 3%. I think you miss at least 3% of those chipshots.
Are you referring to Jacksonville's thing here?

If so, this is clearly wrong.. that decision isn't close at all.. ANFL puts it at a 17% difference in WP.

Quote:
To put it in perspective, the decision to kneel (not including the rest of the run) was comparable in importance to the Jaguars' 37-yard interception return to the Jets' 4-yd line in the 3rd quarter.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...king-knee.html

If I'm misunderstanding what you are referring to, I'm sorry.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:48 PM   #447
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Little tool which helps with the EV calculations. Anyone who spends 1 minute with this and stills says it was a terrible call is a ****ing idiot. Get to +EV territory when you put odds of 4th down conv. at 50%, scoring from 30 at 90%, and scoring after punt at 46%. And this doesn't even factor in chance for Pats FG if Colts score quickly.
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:49 PM   #448
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Huffington Post "gets it". Suck on that conservatives and libertarians!
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:51 PM   #449
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by J_V View Post
What's really interesting is that the Belichick call is clearly right and kneeling at the 1 is very very close.


If you score at the 1, team has has around 15% chance for a td. 50% on 2 point conversion. And 50% in overtime. Thats like 3%. I think you miss at least 3% of those chipshots.
Just curious where people that watch football get these percentages from?
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Old 11-16-2009, 02:51 PM   #450
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
I don't think its possible to underestimate the amount of instinctual critical thinking that occurs within the minds of most NFL head coaches.

I'm very confident it would not even occur to over 25 current NFL coaches to think about going for it there. Other than BB:

Josh McDaniels
...?
Ken Wisenhunt would have thought long and hard about it. Not sure if he would have gone for it, but he's made unconventional decisions in the past.
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