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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
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Old 11-16-2009, 09:41 AM   #351
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gumpzilla View Post
That whole series and the aftermath was a horrendous botch-up and played incredibly inconsistently.

If you're scared enough of Peyton that you want to make a ballsy push on 4th to go for it, the play calling on 3rd was execrable. If you know you're going to go for it on 4th they should be rushing it twice and burning some additional clock as well. Once the Colts get to the 3 or whatever, they should have just let that guy go through and leave 1 minute or so on the clock, but we'll give the guys on the field the benefit of the doubt for not coming to this conclusion in the heat of the moment. However, Belichick then decided that the best way to win was to stop a team from marching 3-4 yards (instead of letting them score as quickly as possible and then playing for a field goal) when he was apparently insecure enough in the D to make the prospect of holding them from 60-70 yards away look less attractive than going for it on 4th and 2. Just absolutely insane and preposterous looking from a coach who usually seems to have his **** together.

EDIT: I am generally a very big fan of aggressive 4th down play calling, but I think this is pretty awful and the way it played out suggests it was very haphazardly thought through.
Very much this. You need to make up your decision before 3rd and play 3rd and 4th accordingly.

And letting them score is without a doubt the right play, with regards to the "heat of the battle" argument, in case some people missed it MJDs kneeling at the 1 was pretty sweet.

I think if you do both these right going for this is +EV, if not it's probably marginally +EV gut says it's pretty close.

Quote:
I hate BB, but I just gained a lot of respect for him. Whether or not the call was "correct," I can't say for sure. It was probably somewhere between slightly +EV and slightly -EV. I just love the fact that he doesn't give a **** about the results-oriented, math-impaired talking heads who'll automatically say "ZOMG you have to punt there!" if they don't convert.
Also this, certainly got a little more respect for BB after this game.

Quote:
According to Advanced NFL Stats, the Pats were 77% win before going for it, and 66% to win after failing. These stats seem to underestimate Manning in both circumstances in my judgment, especially the second, but they make it look like an easy call to go for it.
Wow, less close than I expected. Goes to show I'm bad with numbers. I've always wondered why no NFL team has any mathematicians on staff for this kind of stuff (up in the booth, dunno how many people are allowed to be in there etc. but it would certainly make sense)

Last edited by clowntable; 11-16-2009 at 09:58 AM.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:01 AM   #352
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

lol @ pretending this is a poker problem

I agree the call was WAY closer than the media is making it.

It's a terrible call based upon the previous play calling as previously stated. I don't think anyone can disagree with that. Also, To have your offense start to walk off the field then turn around means this was a big surprise to them, which would lead me to believe this was a quick decision by Belichick.

I do think that if they converted then people would be praising this call a lot more than denouncing it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:06 AM   #353
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

The previous play calling has no impact on it at the point they decide to go for it, i.e. the coin has no memory. It may have been better to devise a two play set on 3rd down with the intention of going on 4th down, but once they get to 4th and 2, the numbers still support going for it.

Also, here is a gem from the AdvancedNFLStats site:

"I love how Trent Dilfer's holding onto his argument that going for it is dumb."

"Going for it is dumb. If the opposing quarterback is Trent Dilfer."
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:09 AM   #354
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Peter King on math:

"Let's place the odds of Brady getting two yards at 60, 65 percent. The odds of Manning going 72 yards to score a touchdown in less than two minutes (given a punt) ... that's maybe 35 percent."

"All in all, I hated the call."

Can you find the flaw in this logic?
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:11 AM   #355
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

good call, and its not even close.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:24 AM   #356
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Once the conversion fails, who'd snapcall an all out blitz on the first play for the Colts? If it works great if not they burn you for a quick score and you let the O win it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:28 AM   #357
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bschr04 View Post
Peter King on math:

"Let's place the odds of Brady getting two yards at 60, 65 percent. The odds of Manning going 72 yards to score a touchdown in less than two minutes (given a punt) ... that's maybe 35 percent."

"All in all, I hated the call."

Can you find the flaw in this logic?
Link?

Listening to Chris Carter now on Mike & Mike, and he liked the call. He seems to sorta understand it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:34 AM   #358
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by NickMPK View Post
I suppose the right play is to go for it because it involves slightly less chance of your players being injured.
Actually I'd rather punt because "less important players" would get injured on the punt compared to the 4th down play.

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Originally Posted by Victor View Post
punt. and not to avoid media crucification, but to prevent this sort of strategy from even being considered.
Yes this is a very good point as well.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:40 AM   #359
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by RonMexico View Post
Link?

Listening to Chris Carter now on Mike & Mike, and he liked the call. He seems to sorta understand it.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...mqb/index.html

Quote:
Once the conversion fails, who'd snapcall an all out blitz on the first play for the Colts? If it works great if not they burn you for a quick score and you let the O win it.
its a very interesting idea. Id have to think about it a little more. If your only outcomes were polarized to like sack, incompletion, TD, it would probably be good.

However, the Colts potential to get long non-TD plays might spoil this. And given that the Pats would prefer the Colts to score, the best Colts counterstrategy might be to complete the bomb then MJD it on the 1 inch line.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:42 AM   #360
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Fleebrog View Post
Also most coverage that I have seen has been saying how smart it was for Maurice Jones-Drew to stop short of the touchdown at the end of the game (which it was).

Does anyone think that if the field goal misses the story is "you always take the score when you can"?
I think personally yes you have to get in there and take the points, it wasn't like the Jags were going to be up and the Jets had to score only a FG, now the Jets have to score a TD, remember John Carney after all those laterals and he missed the XP, it does happen.

Westbrook about 2-3 years ago did this same thing, he busted a big run and knelt down at the 2 to keep clock going. Difference was PHI was winning at the time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iggymcfly View Post
Even funnier, along with that poll is another poll that says "if the Pats punted, who would have won" and 53% say Indy. So the people actually think that the Pats are a dog to win the game if they punt and they still think they should punt even though they're obviously well over 70% to win by going for it.
I guess people just don't get it when they them selves are saying they would lose. If you think punting will lose the game, then why not try to end it and if you fail, more often than not, they will score quick enough that you will have another shot yourself. Just not here!!!!

For riverman,myturn2raise:

The officials did not blow the game. If you think it was a poor spot so be it, but he bobbled it, which if he didn't clearly it would have been 1st down, if they had a better plan on 3rd for 4th, instead of being so arrogant in thinking they have 1st down locked up on 3rd down, they wouldn't have blown the TO and had a chance to challenge.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:43 AM   #361
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

While we're at it, let's check on Indy's decision making...
What's the chance of recovering an onside kick?

I'm not 100% sure about the clock+timeout situation but I think NE getting one first down after both timeouts burned would have clinched it so it seems that trying the onsidekick would have given Indy an extra chance to get the ball while not changing too much for the D.

Quote:
However, the Colts potential to get long non-TD plays might spoil this. And given that the Pats would prefer the Colts to score, the best Colts counterstrategy might be to complete the bomb then MJD it on the 1 inch line.
Yeah maybe you'd need some special formation for this with like a deep guy on the one who flows to wherever the ball is tossed/ran, lets the guy run and tackles him into the endzone or smth. The anti-prevent.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:44 AM   #362
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

It's just sort of bitter sweet as a Pats hater. Great that they lost, but my head is going to explode listening/reading any analysis from media donks.

And I'm going to laugh/cry and blame BB when Jauron punts on 4th&2 trailing by 10 with 7 minutes left. Oh wait he already did that this year, which induced crickets from espn.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:56 AM   #363
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gumpzilla View Post
That whole series and the aftermath was a horrendous botch-up and played incredibly inconsistently.

If you're scared enough of Peyton that you want to make a ballsy push on 4th to go for it, the play calling on 3rd was execrable. If you know you're going to go for it on 4th they should be rushing it twice and burning some additional clock as well. Once the Colts get to the 3 or whatever, they should have just let that guy go through and leave 1 minute or so on the clock, but we'll give the guys on the field the benefit of the doubt for not coming to this conclusion in the heat of the moment. However, Belichick then decided that the best way to win was to stop a team from marching 3-4 yards (instead of letting them score as quickly as possible and then playing for a field goal) when he was apparently insecure enough in the D to make the prospect of holding them from 60-70 yards away look less attractive than going for it on 4th and 2. Just absolutely insane and preposterous looking from a coach who usually seems to have his **** together.

EDIT: I am generally a very big fan of aggressive 4th down play calling, but I think this is pretty awful and the way it played out suggests it was very haphazardly thought through.
great post.

the 4th down call was correct in a vaccuum, but the third down play was definitely bad.

I think the goal line stand is way closer than you think though. P(Driving the ball decently far with no timeouts + converting FG) and P(stopping the colts 4 times from the 4 yd line) arent too far apart id imagine.
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Old 11-16-2009, 10:57 AM   #364
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

With BB's decision, the Pats get two chances to win. The attempt can succeed and then they basically just win outright, or it can fail and the Pats can successfully defend

With a punt, your only chance is to defend

A good sports bettor could work the odds of all that out to pretty accurate percentages

I'm sure BB has a team of guys in his ear doing the same thing

No doubt that he made the right call, really
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:02 AM   #365
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Thx bschr04. LOL Peter Kingaments.

Quote:
And this would never have been a great call. Even it you think you've got a two-out-of-three chance to make two yards deep in your own territory, the cost of missing it is too great. The difference between Manning driving 29 yards for the winning touchdown and 72 is too great. Too many chances for him to err in 72 yards, as he'd been doing occasionally during the night.
He starts out on the right path by assigning the 60 to 65% for converting, and then 35% for the Colts scoring after a punt. But then rationalizes it all with "the cost of missing it is too great." Hmm, great jump from point A to point D. Actually, I probably have to give Peter some credit because I'm not sure most people make it beyond than the dogmatic snap-punt mentality.
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:04 AM   #366
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

The real reason he went for it is that if he loses he can double the intensity during practice because neither O nor D can complain about extra workouts because both failed to win it.

Genius ;P
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:04 AM   #367
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by chim17 View Post
He made a pretty big error by not letting them score after he failed on 4th down and giving them time.

You didn't trust your team to stop them with 70 yards to go.. but lets fight it when we're on the 4 with 45 seconds left?
I hope this is a level. LETTING them score? Gotta be a level.
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:16 AM   #368
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

LOL on First Take's 1st and 10 on ESPN Jay Crawford says that "the percentages CLEARLY say that you should punt there." Uh, no. And then the topic is not "do you you agree with the 4th down decision" but rather "how dumb was the 4th down decision?" I mean, really?
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:17 AM   #369
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by RonMexico View Post
He starts out on the right path by assigning the 60 to 65% for converting, and then 35% for the Colts scoring after a punt. But then rationalizes it all with "the cost of missing it is too great." Hmm, great jump from point A to point D. Actually, I probably have to give Peter some credit because I'm not sure most people make it beyond than the dogmatic snap-punt mentality.
haha yea at least he is trying. He just drew the wrong conclusions from his own thoughts:

P(Pats fail to convert)= 35%
and
P(Colts score Given punt)= 35%

then going for it is better since the colts obv arent scoring 100% of the time the Pats miss. It seems to me that when p<100% ...

(.35)(p)< (.35)
(pats miss and colts score)< (Pats punt and colts score)

...Colts win less often when pats go for it.

i could be wrong though. im better at math than i am at hand waving.
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:33 AM   #370
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Also, I'd like to point out that Colin Cowherd is an idiot as well. He just said, "You can say 'They convert on 4th down 70% of the time...' but what matters is WHERE you go for it. There's a reason why you go for it on their one yard line and not your own one yard line." And it doesn't even occur to him that it's more complicated than this. Seems like it would be really frustrating if you were decently intelligent and part of the sports broadcasting community. He read my email on the air by cherry-picking the parts he wanted to disagree with and ignoring the part where I say the analysis ACCOUNTS FOR where the ball is. Pretty sure Michelle Beadle from SportsNation knows more about sports.
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:35 AM   #371
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I knew last night that talk radio was going to drive me crazy by listening to the Belichick bashing and so far I've been right. My head exploded on the drive to class this morning listening to Boston sports talk on weei. The hosts and everyone calling in were crucifying Belichick. The hosts quoted "the one person defending BB" who wrote an article for providence journal providing statistical evidence for Belichick's call being slightly correct and the moron's laughed at it. Who ever mentioned most media being results oriented and mathematically impair was right.
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:42 AM   #372
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

This is like the end of the innocence in assuming certain sports personalities (including former coaches and players) have a brain. When the play happened my immediate reaction was like" "That's a very interesting call, I bet the numbers support it." Then, right after the game everyone is like "wtf, BB is insane!"

The next couple of days will allow me to reevaluate my preferences in the sports media. That alone is valuable. My guess now is that Bill Simmons supports the call and Tony Kornheiser finds it close. I think most of these donks will say it's terribad. It's ironic, because this would be a great chance for Skip Bayless to push his standard contrarian view, but I think I just heard him from the other room jumping on the omgwtflolbbq BB bandwagon.

(BTW, I don't even like BB, but I would trade my coach and a 1st round draft choice for him.)
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:43 AM   #373
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by RonMexico View Post
Seems like it would be really frustrating if you were decently intelligent and part of the sports broadcasting community.
lol truth.
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:44 AM   #374
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I'm surprised 14% think it was a good call on ESPN, I figured it would be much lower.
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Old 11-16-2009, 11:50 AM   #375
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by john voight View Post
pats convert 4th = 25%
pats win if convert = 60%

the EV is: .15

pats win if punt = 18%

the EV is: .18

punting is clear choice.
You have any idea how large the error bars are on this kind of simple EV calculation? Given uncertainty U_1, the uncertainty in the first calculation increases by approximately U_1 {X + Y}/ {XY}; for example, given 5% error in the initial estimates you've divined, you should find an uncertainty of greater than 0.05 * (0.85 / 0.15) ~ 30% in your answer, more than the percentage difference in the EVs -- (0.18 - 0.15) / 0.15 = 20% -- of your "clear" decision. You're not going to answer this question analytically.
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