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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:23 AM   #301
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by | Burton | View Post
What makes BB so sick and awesome...is if this exact same situation were to present itself next week..I'm basically 99.99999% certain BB says "We're going for it"
Oh, especially after all the talking heads acted like it was the worst decision since the Germans invaded Russia, it would just be a giant **** you to all of them.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:25 AM   #302
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

What would have been awesome is if Addai were running free (not being closely pursued like he was in reality) on that play with 1:20 left or whatever, then stopped on the 1/2 yard line in an attempt to run as much time off the clock as possible before scoring. If anyone comes close to him he can stick his hand out for the touchdown.

Then the Patriots would have been like what the hell is going on? And probably try to tackle him short of the end zone, when they should actually make sure to tackle him into the end zone ASAP.

Maybe someday I will get to see a goal line standoff like this.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:26 AM   #303
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Also most coverage that I have seen has been saying how smart it was for Maurice Jones-Drew to stop short of the touchdown at the end of the game (which it was).

Does anyone think that if the field goal misses the story is "you always take the score when you can"?
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:26 AM   #304
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Oh, especially after all the talking heads acted like it was the worst decision since the Germans invaded Russia, it would just be a giant **** you to all of them.
Especially if in a post-game presser he said something along the lines of "FU Dungy and your backwards percentages"
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:26 AM   #305
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by allinontheturn View Post
No, I wouldn't want to play 10 handed pretty much ever.

Even funnier, along with that poll is another poll that says "if the Pats punted, who would have won" and 53% say Indy. So the people actually think that the Pats are a dog to win the game if they punt and they still think they should punt even though they're obviously well over 70% to win by going for it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:48 AM   #306
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Grunch: Love the playcall. 90% of the mediatards that are berating BB for this would be licking his ass if they made it.

I'm guessing it adds ~5% to win, maybe up to 10%.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:51 AM   #307
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I listen to All Night with Jason Smith a lot before I go to bed, and was expecting the worst since he can often be a typical reactionary sports media guy.

Instead he's saying he liked the call and is now talking about how you can't be results oriented about it. How refreshing.
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Old 11-16-2009, 03:55 AM   #308
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by TexArcher View Post
Just to throw this out there and see what people think:

Prior to the 4th down attempt, Indy had scored 4 touchdowns and had 9 other possessions that did not yield any points (7 punts and 2 picks).

That's 31% touchdowns.

Obviously it changes a bit with the whole field being 4 down territory, but it also changes with defensive adjustments with 70-ish yards to go in two minutes.

45% seems too high to me.
I was thinking something along these lines too. Yes the Colts had some momentum. But Manning had been throwing up weird ducks, Clark was mostly shut down, and every receiver but Wayne was dropping balls right and left. So it's not like punting the ball back to the 2006 Colts firing on all cylinders.

I'm not sure if this makes a big difference in the math. But I certainly liked the Colts chances of screwing up somewhere with a much longer field to work through (moreso than usual for them).

Last edited by suzzer99; 11-16-2009 at 04:07 AM.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:01 AM   #309
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Let's assume the probabilities worked out exactly to a 50/50 distribution for whatever reason. Do you punt or go for it at 0EV.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:04 AM   #310
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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That last one rules.
It's amazing what giant % of the public isn't even cognizant of the idea that a good decision can still bring a negative result - in anything.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:05 AM   #311
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by vixticator View Post
Let's assume the probabilities worked out exactly to a 50/50 distribution for whatever reason. Do you punt or go for it at 0EV.
Then you go for it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:08 AM   #312
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by vixticator View Post
Let's assume the probabilities worked out exactly to a 50/50 distribution for whatever reason. Do you punt or go for it at 0EV.
punt. and not to avoid media crucification, but to prevent this sort of strategy from even being considered.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:09 AM   #313
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

This wasn't even the most questionable decision to go for it I have seen this season.
Check out the Ravens play call with :36 left in the 4th quarter of this game (Week 1 vs. KC, Ravens go for it on 4th and goal when leading by 7). Because the play succeeded, it is not even mentioned in the game recap...except to say "Willis McGahee scored from the 1 with 31 seconds remaining to clinch it." So results oriented....
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:10 AM   #314
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
don't the stats depend upon the outcome of the game?

Therefore, doesn't that mean that if it were successful it was the right call and if it were not successful then it would be the wrong call?

Not successful = dude made the wrong call.

ahhahahahahahaa
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:12 AM   #315
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Victor View Post
punt. and not to avoid media crucification, but to prevent this sort of strategy from even being considered.
Noooo. Go for it because you can.

Actually the very very small potential edge you suggest probably makes you right.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:13 AM   #316
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by vixticator View Post
Let's assume the probabilities worked out exactly to a 50/50 distribution for whatever reason. Do you punt or go for it at 0EV.
I suppose the right play is to go for it because it involves slightly less chance of your players being injured.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:15 AM   #317
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by NickMPK View Post
This wasn't even the most questionable decision to go for it I have seen this season.
Check out the Ravens play call with :36 left in the 4th quarter of this game (Week 1 vs. KC, Ravens go for it on 4th and goal when leading by 7). Because the play succeeded, it is not even mentioned in the game recap...except to say "Willis McGahee scored from the 1 with 31 seconds remaining to clinch it." So results oriented....
Hmm, now this looks like a bad time to go for it. Surely they drive 99 yards to tie the game less often than blocked kick or score twice with so little time left. Either way the Chiefs are screwed but seems like they would prefer Baltimore to try and score.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:16 AM   #318
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I suppose the right play is to go for it because it involves slightly less chance of your players being injured.
Oh, wow I didn't even consider this idea. Agreed.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:20 AM   #319
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Because it happens every time these two teams play now? Notice how the Colts only beat NE after Archie cried to the NFL about the PI rules and they got changed? Strange coincidence if you ask me. Oh well, nothing will top the 15 yard roughing penalty in the 2006 AFC champ game when Peyton got tapped on the helmet by accident. Just wasn't meant to be tonight, but they'll get them next. Pats dominated the game for so long and are still in a great position to easily lock up the division and make the playoffs for a rematch. Meanwhile the Colts will continue to slide by mediocre teams, and get gifts to beat the good ones (cough*Houston*cough).
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:22 AM   #320
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Fleebrog View Post
What would have been awesome is if Addai were running free (not being closely pursued like he was in reality) on that play with 1:20 left or whatever, then stopped on the 1/2 yard line in an attempt to run as much time off the clock as possible before scoring. If anyone comes close to him he can stick his hand out for the touchdown.

Then the Patriots would have been like what the hell is going on? And probably try to tackle him short of the end zone, when they should actually make sure to tackle him into the end zone ASAP.

Maybe someday I will get to see a goal line standoff like this.
Addai would get crucified for doing this. It's like how 2nd and 1 > is better than 1st and 10, but you won't see WRs running 9 yard hooks on first down or RBs stepping out after 9 yards.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SarcasticRat View Post
I listen to All Night with Jason Smith a lot before I go to bed, and was expecting the worst since he can often be a typical reactionary sports media guy.

Instead he's saying he liked the call and is now talking about how you can't be results oriented about it. How refreshing.
Listening to this also agreed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NickMPK View Post
This wasn't even the most questionable decision to go for it I have seen this season.
Check out the Ravens play call with :36 left in the 4th quarter of this game (Week 1 vs. KC, Ravens go for it on 4th and goal when leading by 7). Because the play succeeded, it is not even mentioned in the game recap...except to say "Willis McGahee scored from the 1 with 31 seconds remaining to clinch it." So results oriented....
Thanks for reminding me about that ****ing stupid backdoor cover.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:36 AM   #321
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I at least skimmed the whole thread and I'm not sure that anyone posted what I think is the correct solution here.

What Bellicheck should have done is go for it (obv) and if he missed he should have LET THE COLTS SCORE ON THE VERY NEXT PLAY. Then pats have about 1:45 and 2 TOs (I think) to get in to field goal range and then make a field goal.

This is the best course of action because I think the chance of pats scoring an FG after a kickoff with 1:45 and 2 TOs is greater than the chance of holding the colts when they get the ball from the 30.


The only possible objection to this is that Indy would be smart enough not to score immediately or would try to stall somehow. However, if executed properly, that's not really possible. On the first play just double cover the guys at the sidelines and leave Clark or someone open in the middle. I guarantee that Clark is going to run with that ball as far as he can, including into the endzone. The best he might do is that he may do what Stokeley did against cincy and shave off a few seconds, but he's not going to stop at the one so that Indy can take a knee a few times. That only works if you need a FG. It doesn't work if you need a TD, because even a TD from the 1 is not automatic.

I know Peyton said in the post game interview that they would have tried to milk the clock. But if the let them score on the very first play, I'm certain that Indy would just take it.

So Bellichek made the right call by going for it. He should have followed through by allowing the Colts to score immediately.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:42 AM   #322
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

lol
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:45 AM   #323
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Melkerson View Post
I at least skimmed the whole thread and I'm not sure that anyone posted what I think is the correct solution here.

What Bellicheck should have done is go for it (obv) and if he missed he should have LET THE COLTS SCORE ON THE VERY NEXT PLAY. Then pats have about 1:45 and 2 TOs (I think) to get in to field goal range and then make a field goal.

This is the best course of action because I think the chance of pats scoring an FG after a kickoff with 1:45 and 2 TOs is greater than the chance of holding the colts when they get the ball from the 30.


The only possible objection to this is that Indy would be smart enough not to score immediately or would try to stall somehow. However, if executed properly, that's not really possible. On the first play just double cover the guys at the sidelines and leave Clark or someone open in the middle. I guarantee that Clark is going to run with that ball as far as he can, including into the endzone. The best he might do is that he may do what Stokeley did against cincy and shave off a few seconds, but he's not going to stop at the one so that Indy can take a knee a few times. That only works if you need a FG. It doesn't work if you need a TD, because even a TD from the 1 is not automatic.

I know Peyton said in the post game interview that they would have tried to milk the clock. But if the let them score on the very first play, I'm certain that Indy would just take it.

So Bellichek made the right call by going for it. He should have followed through by allowing the Colts to score immediately.
I think the correct play is to do that but blitz huge on first down and see if u can get a big play. Basically you should definitely gamble to create a big play one way or the other so that you get the ball back with time left if they do score.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:45 AM   #324
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Melkerson View Post
I at least skimmed the whole thread and I'm not sure that anyone posted what I think is the correct solution here.

What Bellicheck should have done is go for it (obv) and if he missed he should have LET THE COLTS SCORE ON THE VERY NEXT PLAY. Then pats have about 1:45 and 2 TOs (I think) to get in to field goal range and then make a field goal.

This is the best course of action because I think the chance of pats scoring an FG after a kickoff with 1:45 and 2 TOs is greater than the chance of holding the colts when they get the ball from the 30.


The only possible objection to this is that Indy would be smart enough not to score immediately or would try to stall somehow. However, if executed properly, that's not really possible. On the first play just double cover the guys at the sidelines and leave Clark or someone open in the middle. I guarantee that Clark is going to run with that ball as far as he can, including into the endzone. The best he might do is that he may do what Stokeley did against cincy and shave off a few seconds, but he's not going to stop at the one so that Indy can take a knee a few times. That only works if you need a FG. It doesn't work if you need a TD, because even a TD from the 1 is not automatic.

I know Peyton said in the post game interview that they would have tried to milk the clock. But if the let them score on the very first play, I'm certain that Indy would just take it.

So Bellichek made the right call by going for it. He should have followed through by allowing the Colts to score immediately.
Pats had no timeouts.
Saying they should let them score from the 30 is ridiculous.
The chance of stopping even the Colts score from the 30 in this situation is better than the chance of going 40+ yard followed by making a long FG.
And even when you try to stop the Colts and they do score, some of the time you can still drive down to make the winning FG anyway.

I would think that trying to stop the Colts at the 30, planning to let them score if they get a quick big play, is clearly better than letting them score from the 30.
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Old 11-16-2009, 04:45 AM   #325
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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LET THE COLTS SCORE ON THE VERY NEXT PLAY. Then pats have about 1:45 and 2 TOs (I think) to get in to field goal range and then make a field goal.
when typing this, did you ask yourself why Bill didn't challenge the spot, if he did in fact, have 2 time outs left?

obv not but you should have
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