Quote:
Originally Posted by Thremp
Are you contending that taking a radical stance wrt in game decision making does not expose you to unnecessary job risk?
No. I'm contending that the job risk it poses has nothing to do with owners being idiots. I already explained one way in which it poses a risk that doesn't assume the outrageous assumption that owners are idiots - the owner already doesn't like you, but needs a reason that sounds plausible to other people in the organization. It's important to understand that power dynamics go way beyond "this person has authority over me, so all that matters is what he thinks of my decisions." Everyone, even those with a lot of power, works under a lot of constraints and what various random people in the organization think of you is important. That this doesn't seem to occur to you (worse, you seem to have ignored this despite my having pointed this out) serves as anecdotal evidence for my other arguments.
Quote:
Considering the sample size is extremely small, and the fact that your argument does have some credence (They are not complete ****ing idiots). This should be a fairly obvious conclusion that there is some outside motivation, other than their innate desire to prevent their teams from winning.
Right. Picking your battle is an important skill. Making decisions that people you need to lead are emotionally averse to needs to be done with great care. Furthermore, such consideration means it can be a waste of energy to become better at certain things you can't do anyway. Ignorance can sometimes be a sign of great wisdom.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vhawk01
Ok, as simple as I can make it, your main argument seems to be that people who have shown the ability to succeed in business are ALSO going to be people who are particularly skilled and talented at certain things, among them criticially evaluating evidence and setting aside biases, etc. This seems like a fairly intuitive, reasonable argument, but not everything that is intuitive and reasonable is correct. More importantly, you seem to extend from this argument something like "And thus, you would need VERY good evidence before you even think about questioning someone like BB or Kraft in spots like this." (my words not yours) Well, in addition to wanting some evidence to back up my (and your) intuition on this topic, I'd also like to QUANTIFY this advantage that successful businessmen have over the average man.
Are we talking about you, or some hypothetical epistemologically rational person who wants to be as correct on as many things as possible? Yes, it's a completely waste of time to question things like this. I'm sure that you have a lot more things in your life that can use some of that diverted attention. Thus unless there's some greater wisdom that you can derive from analyzing situations like this (which I've been trying to, but I'll admit that what I'm doing in this thread is a rather suboptimal use of my time and indicative of my being unwise). Then, the only other way it's rational to dwell on this is if it serves some therapeutic purpose, in which case the result of such analysis can't be trusted on an epistemological basis, unless you derive great pleasure from being objectively correct. I will admit that 2p2 posters, being bookish, quantitatively inclined and what not, are somewhat more emotionally inclined towards propositional correctness than the average person. But that isn't always what drives people.
Delving deeply into some subject matters for its own sake can reveal useful insights that are useful for other areas of life, but I think we can all agree that this particular topic of whether Belichick made a good decision is fairly unlikely to lead to substantial insights.
Quote:
IOW, the "VERY" earlier in this paragraph isnt some digital thing, its analog. I'd like to know HOW strong my evidence would have to be before I consider that BB might be wrong.
This depends on the opportunity cost of your cognitive capacity. Framing things this way, I think, makes it obvious what the optimal thing to do is, right?
Quote:
If the average CEO is 3% "smarter" (hate to use this word but you know what I mean) than the average person, this might be statistically significant but "clinically" useless. If he is 375% smarter, then you are right, it would take very, VERY strong evidence indeed before I would question him, and I'd probably be better off just NEVER questioning them in these spots...it would be a huge waste of my time. But the possible truth could lie anywhere in between.
You're probably best off never questioning them. I mean, what's all this questioning supposed to yield? Besides, you're always just accepting authority in other cases. If you spend your childhood questioning everything and never accepting answers when you can find holes, you'd never learn anything. In fact, this idea that you need to question things instead of just accepting them exists to fight the natural human tendency not to question anything that is emotionally comfortable. Of course, most peoplem use this idea to justify endlessly questioning things that are emotionally uncomfortable, which conveniently allows them to never question anything that is comfortable. This tendency is most obvious in, say, paranoid schizophrenics, but also very evident among normal people.
In this case, yes, perhaps people are questioning the head coach because they have some reason to do so, but it's frankly the opposite - they are refusing to question their own instinct in spite of strong evidence (namely, someone who knows a lot better than you disagrees with your intuition) against it. Either you can ignore the evidence which is fine, or you can amend your intuition slightly given this new information but by far the worst thing you can do (whether practically or epistemologically) is to waste time actively searching for evidence to contradict this new information so that you can feel more secure in your previous intuition that just became less likely to be accurate. There are good reasons for this (in fact one could argue that it's medium-term optimal for a lot of people) but a strong need for this sort of therapeutic thinking is indicative of deeper cognitive and emotional problems.
In short, it's more important to understand why you felt inclined to question the decision in the first place. Otherwise, if you look in enough places, you can always find "objective" evidence for whatever conclusion you were trying to reach in the first place.
Quote:
More important than acknowledging that CEO's have a demonstrable skillset that includes making tough decisions such as this would be QUANTIFYING how large of an advantage that is, and the implications of the magnitude.
The human mind does all of this. One important factor to consider is that from an epistemological standpoint, the mind is heavily biased towards believing what it wants to believe and what it used to believe. So trying to tilt everything in the opposite direction is helpful.
Quote:
And there is no reason to suggest that these things arent amenable to quantification. The confidence with which you refer to these people makes me think you are privy to some of that quantification. I'm curious to see it, to allow me to make better decisions in my life.
There's a limit to my personal lack of wisdom leading to having useless insights such as what I've been posting here. Even I'm not going to try to quantify such a thing. If you are so inclined, you can model the business world as something not too dissimilar to the poker universe with people freely moving up and down the stakes. Determine the role of chance at each stake, etc, and that should tell you the skill differential across average players at various stakes.
Either way, to make better decisions in your life, the important thing is to understand your own emotional tendencies and subscribe to rules that help you cope with them. You can't help wanting to waste time thinking about stupid stuff, but it helps if you can understand why and how you're led to think about stupid stuff and recognize that it's stupid stuff. That makes it difficult for you to go down the road of rationalizing how this isn't stupid stuff and it's actually important and all your outrage, effort, etc, are all justified. And how the conclusions you came to are correct, even though you were emotionally inclined towards and actively looked for certain conclusions.