Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 25 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

At first I admit I was kind of shocked and a little frustrated; however, after thinking about it logically in the aftermath I realized it was the right decision. I don't think it's too far-fetched to not analyze the situation rationally in the wake of seeing your team blow up in the 4th quarter.

the thing that should make it easy for even a casual fan to understand is this: by that point in the game, even people who had no rooting interest at the start of the game had likely decided which team they wanted to win by the time the 4th down play arose. now if i was just some hump who wanted the colts to win, my reaction would have been "oh ****" when i saw that they were leaving the offense out there. and if i was just some hump who wanted the pats to win, im pretty sure i wouldve said "hell yeah" when i saw them leaving the offense out there. im pretty sure even ******s felt that emotionally when they realized what was happening.

the disconnect that follows is what is so hilarious.

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11-16-2009 , 08:03 PM

#603

lapoker17

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Quote:

Originally Posted by tarheeljks

the correct play ev wise often goes against intuition, so i don't really agree w/this and on some level this is part of the problem with getting people to accept these methods

edit: unless you knew the respective conversion odds of the pats and manning off the top of your head it's not really an obv decision. i know that i wasn't sure b/c i had little idea of these #'s, but guesstimated it was at worst a slightly -ev decision

thats why i chose the word "fine" - as in not ridiculous, and understandable. i dont go crazy when i see someone do something that is slighly -ev or slightly +ev.

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11-16-2009 , 08:04 PM

#604

NLSoldier

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i dont understand why so many of you are happy when people in the media get something like this right. the dumber people are the more opportunities there are to exploit their stupidity.

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11-16-2009 , 08:04 PM

#605

Boris

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Originally Posted by TheHip41

if i was up by 2, i'd go for it, up by 6, i'm punting

No. Up by two you definitely punt.

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11-16-2009 , 08:04 PM

#606

RonMexico

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Phail Booth

Your typical owner is way way way way way smarter than people ITT (because they used mad skillz to own huge business and couldn't have possibly luckboxed), and they know the numbers from every angle, but they choose to not execute those plays and win more games at the risk of becoming unpopular.

Made some cliff notes so people can finish your post by midnight.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

you cannot have a RNG/algorithm select plays for you... against the rules

Maybe hire John Madden and get a "Madden's play" recommendation for the OC each down, just like in the video game!

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11-16-2009 , 08:06 PM

#607

natediggity

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Keyshwan was convinced the wrong call was made when after the play the camera showed Belichick's hands over his face.

excellent analysis

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11-16-2009 , 08:06 PM

#608

NLSoldier

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Quote:

Originally Posted by lapoker17

agreed that this is by far the most hilarious part.

i was pulling hard for the colts and was piiiiiissed when i realized they were going for it. so as surprised as I was I figured it was probably the correct play.

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11-16-2009 , 08:09 PM

#609

splashpot

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Originally Posted by Boris

No. Up by two you definitely punt.

Uhhh, you convert 4th down 60%, lose 100% of the time it fails = win 60%
Punt and Peyton drives within fg range greater than 40% = win less than 60%

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11-16-2009 , 08:12 PM

#610

shipitkthx

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OMG BRUSKI STFU THEY HAD A ****ING CHANCE TO STOP THEM...THEY DIDNT...JESUS ****ING CHRIST

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11-16-2009 , 08:12 PM

#611

z32fanatic

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Chris Berman:

"They were probably 65-70% to make it on the 4th down attempt?" *complete agreement by the commentators*

"If you miss it, Peyton and the Colts are what...85-90% to score?" *complete agreement by the commentators*

"And if you punt it, Peyton and the Colts are what...65-70% to score?" *complete agreement by the commentators*

"They decided to take the 65% chance right there."

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11-16-2009 , 08:14 PM

#612

BobboFitos

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Originally Posted by JaredL

That last one rules.

yeah, truly remarkable. the astonishing thing is that is the way the majority of people think.

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11-16-2009 , 08:19 PM

#613

natediggity

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Originally Posted by z32fanatic

Tom Jackson: "i've heard a lot about percentages today......"

and then he concludes percentages are worthless

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11-16-2009 , 08:22 PM

#614

z32fanatic

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Why are talking heads ignoring 2 huge, huge things:
1. Indy's red zone scoring % (TDs I assume) is 60% this season and 67% last season. This is from the 20 yard line not even the 30, so why are people throwing out numbers like 90% that Indy scores a TD when inherently that is impossible and they have to know it.

2. As shipitkthx mentioned just now the NE defense gave up 30 yards in 4 plays, why are people saying that Belichick not letting them give up 30 more yards is somehow "selling them out." They came on the field and gave up 30 yards in about 20 seconds. GG Thanks defense!

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11-16-2009 , 08:25 PM

#615

BobboFitos

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Assani Fisher

running backwards for a safety may have been a better option than punting

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11-16-2009 , 08:28 PM

#616

Artdogg

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red zone TD scoring % isn't really applicable because in most red zone trips 4 downs aren't used and more chances will be taken on average when you need a TD as opposed to being willing to settle for a FG

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11-16-2009 , 08:32 PM

#617

z32fanatic

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Artdogg

Very true, but for people who think IND scores >80% of the time from the 30 yard line, it's not a bad jumping off point in showing that this theory is incorrect.

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11-16-2009 , 08:38 PM

#618

Artdogg

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Quote:

Originally Posted by z32fanatic

Very true, but for people who think IND scores >80% of the time from the 30 yard line, it's not a bad jumping off point in showing that this theory is incorrect.

I think the main thing is people are overestimating how difficult it will be for Peyton to get the 40 yard difference in the middle of the field. Time isn't really a factor with 2 minutes and 1 timeout, at least not for any QB with half decent clock management.

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11-16-2009 , 08:44 PM

#619

Artdogg

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btw, it's harder to get the last 30 yards than it is 40 yards in the middle of the field, so it's funny how those ESPN numbers basically triple the Colts fail rate going from a 30 yard drive to a 70 yard drive

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11-16-2009 , 08:55 PM

#620

JaredL

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Man.

ESPN actually did better than I thought with the go-for-it thing. A lot of LOLs but at least a few saying go. On Monday Night Countdown 3 of 4 plus Bruschi say to just take the TD instead of kneeling for a PAT-length FG FTW.

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11-16-2009 , 08:55 PM

#621

z32fanatic

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Tom Jackson doesn't believe in, and never has believed in, evolution.

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11-16-2009 , 08:58 PM

#622

anononon

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Lots of people cannot do math ITT

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11-16-2009 , 08:59 PM

#623

SL__72

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kyleb

Lots of people cannot do math

fyp

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11-16-2009 , 09:00 PM

#624

anononon

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kyleb

Lots of people think math has nothing to do with sports ITT

fmp

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11-16-2009 , 09:04 PM

#625

GREEAR10

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HAHAHHAHAAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA @ DITKA GETTING PUMPED UP AND GOING ON A RANT ABOUT HAVING TO PUNT IT LOLOLOL

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