Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 24 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

ESPN, according to advancedNFLstats.com (with league-average going for it on 4th down numbers [~56%]). Which gives you best chance of winning:

Go for it: 80.5%

Punt: 79%

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11-16-2009 , 07:11 PM

#577

Riverman

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Shocking, ESPN fails.

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11-16-2009 , 07:13 PM

#578

sportsjefe

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Originally Posted by simplicitus

So, if you are BB do you defend your call and educate the opposition or, safe in your job, do you say "I had faith in our offense, it was close" like he did.

Just curious if he was really on the fence or if he is intentionally avoiding strongly supporting the call ("you'd be an idiotic not to go for it") so that others reevaluate their decision (i.e., "don't teach the fish.")

think about how ridiculously secretive BB is...

he'll play dumb, knowing he made the right call. you think he wants to educate anybody? i don't see the football equivalent of 'Super/System' coming from him anytime soon.

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11-16-2009 , 07:13 PM

#579

Artdogg

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One thing I've found out since this game is that everyone who thinks this was a terrible decision can't be convinced otherwise. If Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison say it it must be true.

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11-16-2009 , 07:14 PM

#580

72off

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Was pretty funny to hear the Sports Guy killing BB for the call, and his Pats season ticket holder buddy has given up and is sending out "Fire BB" emails, or whatever the hell. Bandwagon idiots...

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11-16-2009 , 07:16 PM

#581

Mister Havisham

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largest nfl 4th down story since 1995

http://www.nytimes.com/1995/12/11/sp...alls-flat.html

with 2 minutes left in the fourth quarter on 4th and 1 in a 17-17 game from his own 29, underrated nfl coach barry switzer decided to go for it but fails. cowboys had one of the best short yardage rushing attacks ever with moose johnston, emmitt and a great, large, powerful offensive line. cowpokes went on to win the super bowl (nfl championship) that year.

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11-16-2009 , 07:16 PM

#582

RacersEdge

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Originally Posted by Pudge714

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/aud...s-line-week-10
Starting from
The Patriots fail to convert on fourth-and-short.
To be fair to them these are knee jerk reactions as the games are happening.

Did they change their minds later?

LOL at the guy who said he didn't like either option.

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11-16-2009 , 07:18 PM

#583

Dudd

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Originally Posted by Artdogg

One thing I've found out since this game is that everyone who thinks this was a terrible decision can't be convinced otherwise. If Tony Dungy and Rodney Harrison say it it must be true.

It's amazing the people who are vehemently against it often come back to "YOU DON'T KNOW MORE THAN DUNGY!!11", completely ignoring the fact that they themselves are claiming to know more than Bill ****ing Belichick.

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11-16-2009 , 07:19 PM

#584

clowntable

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Doug Gottlieb just read the Posnanski blog on air and agreed with him.

He probably spent some time thinking about %ages when sitting on the bench during crunch time due to %age-games :P

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underrated nfl coach barry switzer

Heh

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11-16-2009 , 07:23 PM

#585

Mister Havisham

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agree with suzzer and disagree with mt2r about the impact of this decision. it's watershed moment. the tide was already turning. some high school coach never punts and has gotten publicity. coaches know about said coach, and some, like mike leach, acknowledge that the numbers support going for it more often.

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11-16-2009 , 07:23 PM

#586

splashpot

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I think the FO opinions were gut reactions. I think it's reasonable to question the call on instinct, then change your mind when you see the math.

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11-16-2009 , 07:26 PM

#587

suzzer99

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Originally Posted by LaVacheBeadsman

Most of the ESPN guys seem to think it was the right move, if that means anything.

I think a lot of the guys who had to come forward with their opinion right after the game are kind of stuck with it. The ones who have had all day to hear both sides, maybe read the Posnaski column, are coming around. Then there's Jay Mariotti...

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11-16-2009 , 07:26 PM

#588

RacersEdge

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dmisfh1

ESPN, according to advancedNFLstats.com (with league-average going for it on 4th down numbers [~56%]). Which gives you best chance of winning:

Go for it: 80.5%

Punt: 79%

In a way not bad because otherwise people might think it only applies to cases with superstar QBs. Perfect would be them saying something like "the gap widens with good offenses."

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11-16-2009 , 07:29 PM

#589

Artdogg

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Originally Posted by splashpot

I think the FO opinions were gut reactions. I think it's reasonable to question the call on instinct, then change your mind when you see the math.

yea, decisions like these are hard to make on the spur of the moment with a ton of things on your mind, although these coaches eat, breathe, and sleep football, so I'd be pretty surprised if BB didn't have the odds worked out in his mind should it come to 4th down

btw I think he punts against any other team in the league, it's obvious that he wouldn't go for it against any team when you look at the opposite end of the spectrum, you'd definitely want Jamarcus Russell driving the entire distance, although I'd expect the odds to make that a lot closer to a wash

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11-16-2009 , 07:30 PM

#590

Mister Havisham

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switzer was called "Coach 501" by some, referring to Jerry Jones comment about how 500 coaches could win a Super Bowl with that Cowboy team, while Belichick is a HOF lock and viewed as clearly the top NFL coach. This is a big difference which will speed up the process of better 4th down strategy.

Last edited by Mister Havisham; 11-16-2009 at 07:36 PM.

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11-16-2009 , 07:33 PM

#591

bosoxx05

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I've come to the conclusion that people that like bunting disagree with BB's decision to go for it last night.

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11-16-2009 , 07:37 PM

#592

lapoker17

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Quote:

Originally Posted by splashpot

I think the FO opinions were gut reactions. I think it's reasonable to question the call on instinct, then change your mind when you see the math.

this might be ok for a casual fan, but anyone who claims to understand football on some higher level should auto-know it was fine.

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11-16-2009 , 07:40 PM

#593

Dudd

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Or at the very least should they should be ambivalent towards it, not immediately think that it's a dumb decision, because anyone who has ever read anything about 4th down decision making would intuitively know that it was a close decision.

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11-16-2009 , 07:41 PM

#594

mg0698

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LOL was the worst call and not even close

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11-16-2009 , 07:44 PM

#595

Matt Williams

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Originally Posted by mg0698

LOL was the worst call and not even close

LOL. Explain your logic behind it was the worst call.

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11-16-2009 , 07:46 PM

#596

feedthabeast

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Originally Posted by lapoker17

this might be ok for a casual fan, but anyone who claims to understand football on some higher level should auto-know it was fine.

At first I admit I was kind of shocked and a little frustrated; however, after thinking about it logically in the aftermath I realized it was the right decision. I don't think it's too far-fetched to not analyze the situation rationally in the wake of seeing your team blow up in the 4th quarter.

And Epipen...stop wasting your efforts on the ESPN boards. The fans there are dumb as a brick, and the trolls are even worse. There's a reason why I only have like 125 posts over there in 2+ years

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11-16-2009 , 07:47 PM

#597

shipitkthx

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mg0698

LOL was the worst call and not even close

LOL

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11-16-2009 , 07:52 PM

#598

sportsjefe

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Originally Posted by feedthabeast

I gotta admit I voted no last night. I couldn't see where potentially giving Peyton Manning of all people 1st and 10 at the NE 29 was ever a good decision.

That being said, a couple of hundred posts later I see where everyone's coming from and understand completely why going for it was the right play.

edit: and why the fact that it is Peyton Manning of all people only makes it an even more correct play.

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11-16-2009 , 07:55 PM

#599

tarheeljks

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Quote:

Originally Posted by lapoker17

this might be ok for a casual fan, but anyone who claims to understand football on some higher level should auto-know it was fine.

the correct play ev wise often goes against intuition, so i don't really agree w/this and on some level this is part of the problem with getting people to accept these methods

edit: unless you knew the respective conversion odds of the pats and manning off the top of your head it's not really an obv decision. i know that i wasn't sure b/c i had little idea of these #'s, but guesstimated it was at worst a slightly -ev decision