Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 18 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

Yes, there is -- I'm not calling the Belichick decision BAD. What I'm saying is that the mathematical calculations in this thread prove nothing, because the EVs given are swamped by the nonlinear combination of the uncertainties. With only 5% uncertainty in the probabilities, I just showed that decision given by one set of parameters is statistically indistinguishable from the decision given by a different set. If we call the "null" or default model in this situation punting, we can't reject it on math alone. Appealing to Belichick's instincts and intuition as a Hall of Fame football coach is a much better justification. The point is, the call is just not obvious.

Well the advanced nfl stats model (although flawed for other reasons) is based upon huge amounts of raw data and it underestimates how likely the pats are to convert and how likely the colts are to score and it pretty clearly shows going for it is better.

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11-16-2009 , 02:20 PM

#427

suzzer99

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Quote:

Originally Posted by KirkVanHouten

Guy in the media who liked the call:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ml?eref=sircrc

Posnaski is so awesome.

KC used to have the most boring milquetoast sports commentators in the country, then we stumbled onto Posnaski and Whitlock (who is at least always entertaining, if not generally accurate, and nails race issues pretty well). Major positive variance.

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11-16-2009 , 02:22 PM

#428

Riverman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by KirkVanHouten

Guy in the media who liked the call:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...ml?eref=sircrc

Only place I've seen an EV calculation from a mainstream source.

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11-16-2009 , 02:24 PM

#429

| Burton |

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?
AFC Championship game this year...Colts vs. Pats

Pats up by 5 with 1:52 left...no timeouts for Indy
4 and 1 at the Pats 15 yard line
The two prior Colts drives ended in TDs

Does BB go for it and end the game or punt and give the ball back to Manning at say maybe the 50 yard line?

does it change if it is 4th and inches?

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11-16-2009 , 02:26 PM

#430

suzzer99

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

Only place I've seen an EV calculation from a mainstream source.

He even tears apart Peter King's math at the end. Such a badass. King is such a moron. Doesn't he have an editor who understands simple probability/logic/math who can vet that stuff before it goes to print?

He posted the same article on his blog, and at least from the comments, most of his readers seem to get it: http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009.../going-for-it/

Last edited by suzzer99; 11-16-2009 at 02:38 PM.

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11-16-2009 , 02:27 PM

#431

Artdogg

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how many coaches in the league understand going for it is correct but wouldn't because it could cost them their job? I say 10+

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11-16-2009 , 02:29 PM

#432

Triumph36

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Originally Posted by Artdogg

how many coaches in the league understand going for it is correct but wouldn't because it could cost them their job? I say 10+

i'd be surprised if it were 5. you vastly overestimate the intelligence of a group that includes andy reid and brad childress.

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11-16-2009 , 02:29 PM

#433

Artdogg

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Originally Posted by | Burton |

He goes for it again imo

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11-16-2009 , 02:31 PM

#434

chim17

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Triumph36

i'd be surprised if it were 5. you vastly overestimate the intelligence of a group that includes andy reid and brad childress.

I bet a lot of them know that 4th down play isn't currently optimal.

Most coaches are not coaching to win.. they are coaching to not get fired.

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11-16-2009 , 02:31 PM

#435

willie24

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Originally Posted by bschr04

Peter King on math:

"Let's place the odds of Brady getting two yards at 60, 65 percent. The odds of Manning going 72 yards to score a touchdown in less than two minutes (given a punt) ... that's maybe 35 percent."

"All in all, I hated the call."

Can you find the flaw in this logic?

lol

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11-16-2009 , 02:33 PM

#436

SL__72

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The worst part is that he did a really good job of picking percentages.

/edit (except where he gave the Colts a 100+% chance of scoring from the 30 ldo)

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11-16-2009 , 02:34 PM

#437

Triumph36

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Originally Posted by chim17

I bet a lot of them know that 4th down play isn't currently optimal.

Most coaches are not coaching to win.. they are coaching to not get fired.

i'll agree with that, but i feel that most of these guys are from the tony dungy school, which wouldn't've even considered going for it here. on 4th down you just bring your punter or field goal kicker out.

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11-16-2009 , 02:34 PM

#438

Pudge714

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Quote:

Originally Posted by suzzer99

Considering Peter King said that the Steelers "kayoed" Cedric Benson I don't think so.

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11-16-2009 , 02:37 PM

#439

feedthabeast

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Wow...trying to argue this on the ESPN Pats board is such a lost cause. The idiots on there + the Colts trolls is making my head hurt. Why do I bother?

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11-16-2009 , 02:37 PM

#440

Riverman

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I don't think its possible to underestimate the amount of instinctual critical thinking that occurs within the minds of most NFL head coaches.

I'm very confident it would not even occur to over 25 current NFL coaches to think about going for it there. Other than BB:

Josh McDaniels
...?

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11-16-2009 , 02:40 PM

#441

suzzer99

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Quote:

Originally Posted by feedthabeast

Wow...trying to argue this on the ESPN Pats board is such a lost cause. The idiots on there + the Colts trolls is making my head hurt. Why do I bother?

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/index.php

This board is light years ahead of any Chiefs forum I've found in terms of intelligent/non-irrationally-emotional posters, you might check it out. Just don't give it away to the morons on the other boards.

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11-16-2009 , 02:40 PM

#442

willie24

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Originally Posted by PLAYOFFS

It's a terrible call based upon the previous play calling as previously stated. I don't think anyone can disagree with that.

i disagree with that. in fact, i'll go so far as to strongly disagree with the idea that the 3rd down play was obviously bad (knowing that they'd go for it on 4th).

i honestly think that the pats are probably like 85-90% to get 2 yds going pass/pass in that situation and less than that going run/run...especially considering the defense is going to be concentrating on stopping run.

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11-16-2009 , 02:41 PM

#443

suzzer99

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it.
- Upton Sinclair

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11-16-2009 , 02:42 PM

#444

Dudd

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Triumph36

i'd be surprised if it were 5. you vastly overestimate the intelligence of a group that includes andy reid and brad childress.

I would just about die laughing if Reid went for it and just ran Westbrook into a wall of defenders for a two yard loss.

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11-16-2009 , 02:44 PM

#445

J_V

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What's really interesting is that the Belichick call is clearly right and kneeling at the 1 is very very close.

If you score at the 1, team has has around 15% chance for a td. 50% on 2 point conversion. And 50% in overtime. Thats like 3%. I think you miss at least 3% of those chipshots.

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11-16-2009 , 02:46 PM

#446

chim17

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Quote:

Originally Posted by J_V

Are you referring to Jacksonville's thing here?

If so, this is clearly wrong.. that decision isn't close at all.. ANFL puts it at a 17% difference in WP.

Quote:

To put it in perspective, the decision to kneel (not including the rest of the run) was comparable in importance to the Jaguars' 37-yard interception return to the Jets' 4-yd line in the 3rd quarter.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...king-knee.html

If I'm misunderstanding what you are referring to, I'm sorry.

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11-16-2009 , 02:48 PM

#447

Pwn_Master

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Little tool which helps with the EV calculations. Anyone who spends 1 minute with this and stills says it was a terrible call is a ****ing idiot. Get to +EV territory when you put odds of 4th down conv. at 50%, scoring from 30 at 90%, and scoring after punt at 46%. And this doesn't even factor in chance for Pats FG if Colts score quickly.