Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 11 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

how about this argument...

there's no way belichick knew the %'s before he made the call to go for it... or what i mean is this specific situation is not trivial to go for it and the EV is small... so you should punt because there is no way to explain that this is the right move to the players who have almost certainly never seen a coach go for it in this spot ever before and conventional wisdom is obv punt... do you really want players thinking you cost the game?

That's fine if you use the traditional paradigm, but it's bad thinking.

If I somehow magically become a coach I want my players to think that I'm making decisions that give them the best chance to win every game. If you punt here do you really want players thinking you gave them a smaller chance to win?

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11-16-2009 , 02:29 AM

#252

GoneFishing

journeyman

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Was Jim Zorn coaching the Pats tonight?

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11-16-2009 , 02:30 AM

#253

ctyri

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JaredL

If you punt here do you really want players thinking you gave them a smaller chance to win?

Why would they think that? BB tells them he was confident they'd stop Indy 80+% of the time with game on line and 75 yds to go. You think a player is going to raise hand and say (or think to himself), "I disagree, coach, I think we can only stop them 62% of the time."

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11-16-2009 , 02:31 AM

#254

NickMPK

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Strangely enough, as a Patriots fan, I am almost happier that Belichick made this call than I am upset that the Patriots lost the game.

The result of the game doesn't matter that much to the larger picture....the Pats will win the division regardless, although this will hurt when trying to get a bye. But the call was one of the most awesome things I have ever seen in football.

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11-16-2009 , 02:32 AM

#255

Pwn_Master

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My god, I knew it was coming, but the public response is tilting me so hard. Not sure the decision is correct but still. Saying Belichick "gambled" the game away and made a terrible, costly decision? Why do we never hear people say coaches gambled the game away when they punt it to Manning and gamble on the 38 yds being the difference in stopping the Colts from scoring? The answer is obvious, but jesus this "discussion" just shows how most of America is filled with mindless sheep who can't rationally think things out and are blinded by conventional wisdom.

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11-16-2009 , 02:32 AM

#256

| Burton |

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but think of those defensive players feelings...Coach B didn't believe in us
what a ****ing crock of ****

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11-16-2009 , 02:34 AM

#257

Etats360

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Think of what the offensive players would feel if he had punted

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11-16-2009 , 02:34 AM

#258

Riverman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by | Burton |

but think of those defensive players feelings...Coach B didn't believe in us
what a ****ing crock of ****

keep posting

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11-16-2009 , 02:35 AM

#259

| Burton |

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pwn_Master

Most sports fans are dumb. My brothers friend was like " No No!...I don't care if you normally convert that play 85% of the time...if you don't make it then you're giving Peyton the ball at the 30 and you're going to freaking lose the game! Terrible move. You have to punt."
lol

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11-16-2009 , 02:38 AM

#260

shipitkthx

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I'm arguing this on a forum that is completely unrelated to gambling or math in general. And some of these replies are ****ing awesome, by the way these are 100% serious and my original post included a link to the Advanced NFL Stats article:

For your loling pleasure:

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the percentages dictate you punt. there was no excuse nor reason to go for it. It was a poor decision and Belichek will most definitely apologize and take all the blame

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you stupid hippie eat too many drugs..worst call ever...

game blown'D

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the "article" was a couple of paragraphs throwing out horse**** percentages.

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colts are not an average team and check this out. I've done analysis of advanced business stat and regular stat and this formula averages the league. Neither of these teams are average and it was a bad call because the colts were probably about 90% going to score a td from the 20. Get it ? BTW, this article was definately written by some sore idiot in Boston.

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take your "article" and shove it up your ass. 4th and 2 at your own 28...you punt the damn ball and try to make manning drive 70 and get a TD.

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Manning had already thrown 2 picks. A long TD drive is no lock. Going for it there gave the Colts the option of running the ball.

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Terrible call. I don't give a **** what the stats say. Coaching is situational and in that situation it's a terrible call.

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Article=8th grade math. OP=selfed

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no, by horse**** i mean absolutely no relevance in the midst of a football game. you really think belichek was mentally referencing those percentages while making the call?

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huh? the "traditional" approach as you call it is traditional because football coaches have spent over a hundred years understanding the game. belichek's call was just wrong. he's a world class coach, but that was boneheaded.

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don't the stats depend upon the outcome of the game?

Therefore, doesn't that mean that if it were successful it was the right call and if it were not successful then it would be the wrong call?

Not successful = dude made the wrong call.

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11-16-2009 , 02:39 AM

#261

| Burton |

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 34

lol...god ESPN is so ****ing awful.
John Clayton
"The fact that Belichick feared Peyton Manning so much that he went for a fourth down deep in his territory is a complete flip-flop in the series. Before, Belichick used to be in Manning's head. Now Manning is in Belichick's head."

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11-16-2009 , 02:40 AM

#262

ArcticKnight

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I don't like BB so the thought of people ragging on him for incorrect reasons is actaully quite funny.

Also, I can see every casual fan tommorow at work saying. " I don't care what the stat-heads say the odds are, I'm with Dungy and I'm going for the percentages and punting."

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11-16-2009 , 02:41 AM

#263

JaredL

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That last one rules.

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11-16-2009 , 02:41 AM

#264

Pwn_Master

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While I think it was probably the right move, I will admit that is was so unconventional that I didn't see it even though I was watching the game. After the 3rd-and-2 incompletion, I skipped the "punt" and TV timeout to go grab some ice cream from the kitchen for Manning's two-minute drive. Man, Belichick is the nuts.

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11-16-2009 , 02:41 AM

#265

kolotoure

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grunch : going for it should should be completly standard ainec

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11-16-2009 , 02:43 AM

#266

| Burton |

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Back in the 06 AFCC game, the Pats had a 4th and relatively short with 2:30 to go at their 46 and punted. IND got the ball at the 20 and drove 80 yards to win the game.

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11-16-2009 , 02:44 AM

#267

kidcolin

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Originally Posted by JaredL

That last one rules.

word

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11-16-2009 , 02:45 AM

#268

cwicemvp12

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Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 22,495

I would have punted it but it's close. BB has some ridiculous balls to go for it there.

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11-16-2009 , 02:46 AM

#269

Riverman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by shipitkthx

And those people are successful enough to have a home internet connection, making it highly likely that they are of above average intelligence.

Wow.

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11-16-2009 , 02:47 AM

#270

<3_Tha_Grind

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Quote:

Originally Posted by shipitkthx

Phantasy Tour?

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11-16-2009 , 02:47 AM

#271

ArcticKnight

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Hey folks

Don't be upset with the avergae Joe or the media saying you must punt here. After all, you want the average Joe to think and reason like this when you are playing Poker, don't you? Do you want to play full ring with 9 guys who can tell you exactly why going for it was good? I don't.

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11-16-2009 , 02:48 AM

#272

shipitkthx

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Quote:

Originally Posted by <3_Tha_Grind

Phantasy Tour?

Obv.

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11-16-2009 , 02:49 AM

#273

<3_Tha_Grind

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lol

Self'd is what gave it away.

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11-16-2009 , 02:50 AM

#274

ThaSaltCracka

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so supposing NE converts there, they get the first down. The clock is stopping for the two minute warning and Indy still has two timeouts. NE still needs to get one more 1st down for the win or else the Colts could get it back with what, 10 seconds left?