Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 10 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Yes

344 64.06%

193 35.94%

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11-16-2009 , 02:04 AM

#226

bacats32

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 5,603

Quote:

Originally Posted by feedthabeast

Notice how the Colts only beat NE after Archie cried to the NFL about the PI rules and they got changed?

I also noticed how the gayest rule in football never got changed as it worked in favor of the golden boy!!!!

Spoiler:

How quick you are to see when it is against your team, but when bogus **** happens for you, I am sure you never remember.

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11-16-2009 , 02:05 AM

#227

<3_Tha_Grind

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaSaltCracka

ugh, this could end up being a bad call (I have no idea one way or the other), but I hate this kind of hyperbole from the sports media.

speaking in absolutes is the only way they can really appeal to the average fan (who is obv brainless)

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11-16-2009 , 02:05 AM

#228

| Burton |

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 34

The only thing I can question BB on is he really didn't seem to have a plan for what to do in the event the conversion failed.

It didn't seem like he had a "let them score quickly strategy" nor a bring the house blitz type strategy. Seemed he was just playing a base D...which got shredded.

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11-16-2009 , 02:05 AM

#229

ctyri

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My component #s varied, but I had 0.79 win% for going for it, 0.70 win% for punting. Adv NFL stats had exact same results. lol

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11-16-2009 , 02:06 AM

#230

chim17

Snowboarding concerts and punk music

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 56,128

Quote:

Originally Posted by JaredL

Why shouldn't we be guessing percentages?

His numbers are great, great blog in general, but he's just using historical averages. It provides us with a great jumping off point for better educated guesses but all we can do is guess.

I just meant random numbers.

By all means discussion of where to go from there is worthwhile.

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11-16-2009 , 02:06 AM

#231

bacats32

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Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 5,603

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

the 3 angles shown on sportscenter confirm this

So all 3 angles were directly str8 line on the 1st down mark?

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11-16-2009 , 02:06 AM

#232

ctyri

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

btw, anyone who instinctively voted no is not very smart, at least at math-oriented decisions

this one really isnt that close

Anyone who instinctively keeps repeating it isn't close is not very smart, at least at math-oriented decisions, imo.

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11-16-2009 , 02:07 AM

#233

kidcolin

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK

So are you saying that the coaches would actually know that going for it won the game 10% more than punting, and would still punt, or could they just be ignorant?

10% is a huge, huge, huge edge. Put me in an NFL team and let me keep making +10% plays that the crowd won't like, real good chance I'm superstar coach in 5 years imo.

some probably pull a double negative of not knowing, and by not knowing improve their longevity. Some, (like Josh McDaniels, probably), know, but either don't have the sack to go against the grain or know that the risk of failure is too detrimental to their job security when weighed against the improved job security of converting.

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11-16-2009 , 02:07 AM

#234

MyTurn2Raise

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Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

notice that the advanced NFL stats analysis cuts off after the Colts possession

a Pats possession following the short field would have to be more likely to generate a counter go-ahead score than the long field

it's not a big factor, but a few percent

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11-16-2009 , 02:07 AM

#235

NickMPK

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

it's not always an Addai run up the gut
My guess is it would take 3-4s longer on average

But the Colts play call is going to be the same whether the Patriots intend to let them score or not.
If Addai doesn't run up the gut, trying to stop him is significantly better, since there is a much better chance of a negative-yardage play.

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11-16-2009 , 02:08 AM

#236

dmisfh1

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 5,408

Quote:

Originally Posted by MacGuyV

Well it's not saying a whole lot given how sports radio is but he definitely doesn't rip every coaching/managerial move that doesn't work.

Bingo on the bolded.

As far as him not ripping into everything that doesn't work out, you are correct, but you and me both know, Mac that he has his favorites.

It's a sad day when Mike Fatcesa is the pinnacle of sports radio. I dont think he is personally. Just wish we had more guys like the Schmoooooozzzzeerr, and I'm a Yankee fan saying that.

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11-16-2009 , 02:08 AM

#237

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by bacats32

So all 3 angles were directly str8 line on the 1st down mark?

there was a straight line on the field
the 30 goes all the way across as a point of reference
when the receiver has his back foot on that line, it's pretty easy to judge

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11-16-2009 , 02:08 AM

#238

bacats32

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Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 5,603

Quote:

Originally Posted by NickMPK

Also, the biggest mistake the Pats made was tackling Addai at the 1 with 1:20 left.
If they just let him score, they get the ball back and drive down for a FG at least 1/3 of the time.

No way, ask riverman, and the officials blew this game. It had nothing to do with the Pats poor decisions.

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11-16-2009 , 02:08 AM

#239

kidcolin

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaSaltCracka

if that website is basically calling this a wash, why not just punt it and avoid all the backlash lol

cuz BB is a gangsta, and that website isn't saying that at all

Quote

11-16-2009 , 02:10 AM

#240

vixticator

clutch

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 117,339

Quote:

Originally Posted by zugzwang83

i dont think it was bad if he was prepared to let the colts score IMMEDIATELY.

lollll no way

Quote

11-16-2009 , 02:10 AM

#241

MyTurn2Raise

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NickMPK

still a difference of about 3-4s IMO with defenses allowing:
-Manning to hit first receiver on quick drop v making him go through a progression
-trying to tackle a runner up the middle
-run to the outside

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11-16-2009 , 02:13 AM

#242

JaredL

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaSaltCracka

if that website is basically calling this a wash, why not just punt it and avoid all the backlash lol

It's not. It says "Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount." The wash comes in if you change the percentages. He's saying that if you tweak the numbers in favor of punting then at best you can come out even but that going for it is a lot better going by historical numbers.

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11-16-2009 , 02:13 AM

#243

DeadMoneyWalking

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bacats32

No way, ask riverman, and the officials blew this game. It had nothing to do with the Pats poor decisions.

And it could never be that both of those things are true.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 02:13 AM

#244

dmisfh1

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Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 5,408

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaSaltCracka

if that website is basically calling this a wash, why not just punt it and avoid all the backlash lol

Did you actually read the whole article, or just skim thru to the ending? Cause that's not what the article is saying.

EDIT: God damn you kidcolin.

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11-16-2009 , 02:14 AM

#245

ArcticKnight

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK

It happens in baseball all the time. Bunting in -EV situations because....well....bunting is the right play.....right??

It sucks but coaches are influenced by both
-is it the right play?
-will it be perceived as the right play?

Quote

11-16-2009 , 02:21 AM

#246

vixticator

clutch

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 117,339

how about this argument...

there's no way belichick knew the %'s before he made the call to go for it... or what i mean is this specific situation is not trivial to go for it and the EV is small... so you should punt because there is no way to explain that this is the right move to the players who have almost certainly never seen a coach go for it in this spot ever before and conventional wisdom is obv punt... do you really want players thinking you cost the game?

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11-16-2009 , 02:22 AM

#247

Riverman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by vixticator

wat

like BB gives a flying **** about any of that

and you might be surprised at his knowledge of the math

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11-16-2009 , 02:23 AM

#248

Etats360

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The flip side to that is if the play works, he gains complete confidence from his players

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11-16-2009 , 02:26 AM

#249

NickMPK

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Quote:

Originally Posted by vixticator

If you are going down this road of argument, wouldn't you as the coach prefer that the media blame you for the loss, knowing that you don't give a crap about what the media thinks? Rather than having the media blame your young defense for the loss when they give up a long drive at the end of the game, which had a decent probability of happening if the Pats punted?

Belichick effectively took all the blame for the loss onto himself, saving his players who suffer more from the scrutiny.

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11-16-2009 , 02:27 AM

#250

Dudd

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Pretty sure Belichick is very knowledgable about the statistics behind the game, I think he's been quoted as having read the Romer study, which is probably the most widely referenced 4th down study.

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