Benching butler was dumb as hell.

Not playing him after Rowe and Bademosi cost them 17 points was even more inexcusable.

Why even bother dressing him??

why is taking the TO at 2:03 worse than after the 2 minute warning?

freerolls a pass

Because the offense can pass it without having to worry about an incompletion stopping the clock as it will stop due to the 2 minute warning anyway

I'm still confused. I don't remember the TO situation, but I assume the Pats called TO to have one more play before the 2 minute warning? So obviously, the clock was running and they had no time to get a play off. Hence, the TO.

How is not taking the TO free-rolling a pass play?

With 2:03 a pass or run play will stop the clock so it doesn’t matter what the eagles do.

It effectively opens their playbook.

The Patriots were on defense. It was second down. By the Patriots taking a time out, that enabled the Eagles to throw the ball on second. They didn't, but that's besides the point.

That Patriots were on defense.

They used their 3rd and final TD at 2:03, which gave Philly a freeroll to throw and literally win the Super Bowl without worrying about the clock stopping for an incomplete pass.

BB sitting Butler while the defense got torched cause he is an egomaniac.

ahhhhhh....now it makes sense. Thanks!

It's close but on the play where Ertz dove into the end zone the Eagles may have been better off if he kneeled down at the 1. Patriots presumably take a timeout leaving 2:20 or so on the clock. Here you can go knee (burns 20s), delayed knee (burn ~45s), delayed knee (burn ~45s). Especially since you can hold on the delayed knees, you can leave the Patriots with about 25s to drive for a FG with no timeouts. Seems a bit better than giving them 2:20 to drive for a TD.

Also running the ball on 2nd and 8 with 2:03 left was a pretty big mistake given that a pass for a first down ends the game.

It didn't end the game tho. They needed to make a kick on a night when the kickers obv had some trouble.

This. Elliot has been shaky on XP and close field goals, while seemingly almost automatic from longer. Also could be just me remembering all the close misses and celebrating the long makes.

very happy to see the thread title and realize Bama made it into the title of this thread in the most awesome way possible

Yeah and had they done that they couldn't even have run it to zero, there'd still be time on the clock. In a dome, against a good kicker, the "kneel at the 1 to kill time" play is smart if you're killing time to zero. NE gets a good return or a big pass interference or something and you just fancy played yourself into a loss.

The more I think about going for two in the 2nd quarter.

based on the evidence of the rest of the game DP understands high leverage situations and executed them well.

maybe he just wanted to go for two because he thought they could score

sorry for tarding up the thread for a few posts

Yes it wasn't a slam dunk spot to kneel at the 1, but it may have been marginally better.

What % chance do the Patriots drive for a FG with ~25s on the clock and no TOs vs the chance they drive for a TD with 2:20, 1 TO, and 4 downs to work with?

Say 25% they get a FG in the former scenario, and 50% they get a TD in the latter scenario (may be on the low side coming off 3 straight TD drives where they only had 3 downs to score).

Give Elliott a conservative 90% chance of making the 20 yard FG and say they are 50% to convert their 2 point conversion after the TD and 50% to win in OT.

Your win probability kneeling at the 1 would then be:
90%*(1-25%) = 67.5%

Win probability of making the TD (first term is if they miss the 2pc, second term is if they make the 2pc and have a 50/50 shot in OT):
50%*(1-50%) + (50%*(1-50%*50%)) = 62.5%
This number could perhaps go slightly higher if the patriots score too quickly and give the eagles time for a final desperation drive.

So it's close but I think I'm using pretty conservative numbers.

Biggest issue is that if you lose kneeling at the 1 you look extremely dumb to the media and casual fans.

Bump for the Bears throwing on 3rd and 1 then kicking a field goal to go up 6 vs Rodgers with 2:40 and no timeouts

so bad

That was so bad. 2:47 left, 3rd and 1 from the GB15 up 3, GB has no timeouts left. Run the ball on 3rd and take a shot on 4th if you don’t get it. Worst case you give the ball back after the 2 minute warning up 3. If you convert the game is over.

That seemed like a mindnumbingly easy and bad decision.

new version of Firefox same as the old

lol what a moron

This is my favorite routine mistake coaches make