Just throw it at the feet of someone eligible.

I definitely didn't forget that. I said I think this one was worse

I mean I didn't think you'd forgotten the incident, but I thought you might have forgotten just how bad it was. I don't think this one is close to as bad.

not endorsing it, of course, but at least I can understand Rivera's thinking on this one, bad as it was. looking at it from the perspective of "get a 6 point lead and force a rookie QB in his 2nd game to go 80 yards with no timeouts" is coaching like it's 1999 but it still makes a hell of a lot more sense than "turn down an 80% chance to win in exchange for giving the falcons and their basketball on grass offense a free shot to beat us in the georgia dome against our bombed-out secondary"

i can't wait until he gets in the same situation again and ****s it up, again

I think this is worse because 6 isn't better than 3.

If they're up 3, Buffalo is going to take their sweet time and try to kick a field goal. This is even more likely to happen as they have a rookie quarterback. If They kick a field goal, Buffalo still has to beat them in OT. In the down 3 scenario, Buffalo has to score 2x a lot of the time - field goal + OT - in order to win.

If they're up 6, Buffalo will play more aggressively, Carolina will give up everything underneath and Buffalo knows they have to score a TD to have a chance. Although in this scenario, the chance (a TD) gives them a win. They only have to score 1x

2000 Vikings and Packers are tied at 20 and MN is at the GB 15 with 8 seconds remaining. Mitch Berger bobbles the snap and instead of throwing the ball away, he was outside the pocket, to give the MN another chance at a FG the mother ****er throws and INT. Sets up Favre's miracle pass to Antonio Freeman in OT and instead of having the NFC Championship game in MN we have to go to Giants Stadium and lose 41-0.

We may be derailing, but are you from Arkansas?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...ski/index.html

back to the Jason Garrett 53 yd FG down 4 with 3:45 left in the game.

Yeah it was f'ing awful but supposedly, punting was the best decision (i wish I knew what seasons they're using for their data since with game/rule changes so much I feel that the numbers can be off depending), with FG taking down his win expectancy by a zillion % over the other options.

advanced nfl stats did work
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013...ve-punted.html

Punting WP 36
Go for it WP 25
FG attempt 18

After the FG was made 24.

That could easily be one of the worst all time 4th down coaching calls outside of spiking the ball on fourth down in terms of WP because even if he knew the FG would go in it was the wrong decision.

as a bonus
on greg schianos late FG vs the saints
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013...down-call.html

again going for the FG was worse than literally doing anything else. (saints also had 0 TO's which the WP % doesn't take into account)

My hunch is that going for it is undervalued by 5ish % and punting is overvalued 5ish% on the data they're using compared to today's game but that doesn't matter for garrett's lol terrible call. edit--and I think we're finally at the point where we have a reasonable # of coaches who wouldn't necessarily just play for the FG.

weird tho, feels like no way in hell garrett, rivera are going to possibly last beyond this season as a head coach so we might well have an upcoming season where we don't know who we're going to lol at before the season starts.

This is the first of many times I will post this this season: The ANFLS WP calculator does not work at all. It is completely broken and should not be used for any purpose. I have posted examples of its brokenness before, here's another particularly bad example that I stole from comments on the first link above:

Situation: You have the ball, leading by 1, 3:50 left last quarter, 1st and 10

From own 10: 0.79
From own 20: 0.76
From own 30: 0.74

So clearly Garrett should have punted and instructed his punter to place the punt at the opposition 30. You know, because they win less from there than from their 10.

Like I said, totally broken.

That's like the "so and so is 8-0 this season when x has 15 carries or more"

So why not just run x the first 15 plays of the game! Easy game.

Football Commentary does this, but unfortunately doesn't show probabilities, just decision charts. I think their model is far superior to ANFLS.

I've built a similar one with very rough time adjustments (offense slowing down or speeding up in the second half based on score) and end-of-game transitions. The advantage it had over anything else I've seen is that it took into account how good each team was on offense and defense. I keep meaning to go back to it, improve it and maybe try to do something with it, but it's one of many nerdy sports projects I've started and left undone.

Have to give Andy Reid credit after all the bashing I've given him. Going for it on 4th down instead of kicking the fg to go up 13 last night. Was shocked he didnt kick.

Yeah, its so clearly correct but I thought there was no chance at all he'd go for it. Pretty pleasantly surprised

Hahaha same here. Was already tilted by it before they lined up and ready to post on this thread. GJ Andy!!

Well the Chiefs didn't get in. So he probably kicks next time.

Marshall - VaTech game. Goes into OT and Marshall stops VT on the first possession partially blocking their long FG attempt.

Marshall gets the ball on the 35 and runs the exact same running play (so pseudo-draw to the running back out of the gun) 3 damn times in a row and gains a whopping 3 yards total. They do this even though their kicker has already missed a 41 yarder today and his career long is 45. Kicker gonna kicker and VT blocks it. VT wins in 3rd OT as their kicker misses a chip shot at the end of OT 2.

Something like 3 blocks and 3 misses from both kicking teams on the day...lol

Oh and Beeeeeeaaaamer decided to not dress his normal kicker instead using a walk-on for some reason (I didn't still around to watch the PC because I DGAF about either of these teams and just watched the last 2 mins plus OTs because LOLVT)

Taking a knee is better than kicking a FG (I'm almost certain) in that spot.

FG means they need 2 TDs instead of TD+FG. That's gotta be worth something.

It is, but so is pinning them at the 1 with not much time left.

Les Miles with a fake field goal up 21 in the 3rd Q when a field goal pretty much locks up the game

Edit. It would've been a 31-yard field goal attempt. It was 4th & 10

Lol
The guy never disappoints

This was so ****ing bad. I was watching and told my friends "you guys ready for run run run miss?" then they actually did it. The weather was pure slop too there was no way that kick was gonna go in.

Black chilly

But he is super elite at telling ap to run well, which is 90% of coaching I'm told

McCarthy kicked a fg from the 1 yard line

Hell lets keep going.

GB has first and goal with 2 mins left in the half, bengals fail to call timeouts then ice crosby on a 25 yarder.