Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb - Page 11 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb

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09-29-2008 , 05:03 PM

#251

PyramidScheme

FPS Allstar

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 19,898

heh, i love assani

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09-29-2008 , 05:10 PM

#252

chim17

Snowboarding concerts and punk music

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 56,128

We've always talked about that.. I'm sure everyone has.

When my buddy had his son we were talking about training him to be a punter from age 2.

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09-29-2008 , 05:18 PM

#253

yeotaJMU

Shines ELIte's Shoes

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 22,414

handing the ball off to marion barber 8 times and felix jones 0

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09-29-2008 , 05:35 PM

#254

PyramidScheme

FPS Allstar

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 19,898

Ozzie Guillen bunting with the 2-hitter in the 1st inning because... "it's the postseason"

And that we want to put pressure on the other team in a playoff game by getting an early lead crap can't even hold here since the game means nothing to Detroit

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09-29-2008 , 05:47 PM

#255

onlinebeginner

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 4,892

wtf at saints going for it on fourth down up 19 in yesterdays game.. your ****** up 19 points...the guy fumbles it, imagine if it was run back... just really really silly and stubborn...

they were gonna win either way, but still, just silly

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09-30-2008 , 04:33 AM

#256

GBP04

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Challenge Andy. challenge.

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10-05-2008 , 11:58 PM

#257

TheNoodleMan

Wet Noodle

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,566

4th-6, Houston 7 yd line
4:04 left in the 4th quarter
Trailing 27-10

Tony Dungy goes for it. Luckily for him they convert but kicking the FG to make it a 2 score game has to be the better play there.

Luckily for Dungy the other Coach, Gary Kubiak, decided to have his QB scramble around instead of allowing his RBs to grind out the clock against one of the worst run defenses in the league.

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10-06-2008 , 12:28 AM

#258

Semtex

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In the Dallas-Cincy game, trailing 16-17 at the very very beginning of the 4th and coming off a field goal, Marvin calls an onside kick. They pulled it off but I didn't like the call.

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10-06-2008 , 12:38 AM

#259

Jeff W

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNoodleMan

His call was absolutely correct.

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10-06-2008 , 01:03 AM

#260

Riverman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Semtex

In the Dallas-Cincy game, trailing 16-17 at the very very beginning of the 4th and coming off a field goal, Marvin calls an onside kick. They pulled it off but I didn't like the call.

The call was based on the kickoff team turning their heads to run before the kick. It was a good call.

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10-06-2008 , 01:42 AM

#261

Semtex

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

The call was based on the kickoff team turning their heads to run before the kick. It was a good call.

Yeah it definitely fooled Dallas, but even so what are the odds of pulling it off? Dallas with a short field scores the majority of the time and you are only down 1. I don't know I might be wrong on this.

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10-06-2008 , 04:19 AM

#262

TheNoodleMan

Wet Noodle

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 16,566

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNoodleMan

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff W

His call was absolutely correct.

Then defend it with some analysis.

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10-06-2008 , 04:29 AM

#263

yeotaJMU

Shines ELIte's Shoes

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 22,414

Quote:

Originally Posted by Semtex

im not a big math guy or whatev, but if you think youll get the surprise kick 33% of the time, and that if you dont dallas scores a td 50% and a FG 80%, and if you get the kick you take the lead at least 50%, then idk its probably ok. like i said idk how to figure out this EV stuff.

worst case dallas scores a TD and you are down 8. still one score. idk.

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10-06-2008 , 04:43 AM

#264

Jeff W

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNoodleMan

Then defend it with some analysis.

With four minutes left, it's much harder to kick a short FG and then advance the ball to the end zone two more times than it is to a score from the 7 in one play, then advance to the end zone one more time and then advance the ball into long FG range and kick it successfully. In the second scenario, there is also the small chance to score 3 TDs and win instead of 50/50 win in overtime.

Even outside of forced onside kick situations, it's still the right play because your opponent may score again (possibly multiple times).

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10-06-2008 , 06:10 AM

#265

Assani Fisher

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNoodleMan

Then defend it with some analysis.

Thats the point though- This thread is entitled "Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid."

If someone can question whether or not it is stupid and you actually ask to hear their analysis instead of laughing at them as if they were an idiot, then its not obvious.

Seriously it seems as if this thread has turned from "obviously stupid" into "lets nitpick every coaching decision."

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10-06-2008 , 06:21 AM

#266

Semtex

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Assani Fisher

maybe someone should rename the thread then cause i think its pretty fun/enlightening to break down all of these random decisions.

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10-06-2008 , 06:33 AM

#267

Assani Fisher

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Semtex

maybe someone should rename the thread then cause i think its pretty fun/enlightening to break down all of these random decisions.

Oh yeah I agree with you....its late and I was probably just arguing for the sake of arguing.

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10-06-2008 , 03:10 PM

#268

gusmahler

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Yesterday's MIA/SD game. 4th and 7 from the MIA 46. 4th quarter. 6 minutes left. SD is down 10 to 17. SD punts.

I'm not sure if that's obviously bad. That's clearly 4 down territory with 2 minutes left. 90% sure it's 4 down territory with 4 minutes left. With 6 minutes left, I guess a case can be made that relying on the defense is a neutral EV move. But when the opponents have well over 100 yards rushing, I think it's a bad decision on SD's part.

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10-06-2008 , 03:12 PM

#269

Black Aces 518

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff W

His call was absolutely correct.

LOL when I was watching the game, I thought of this thread and knew it would be posted.

i agree with Coach Dungy's call here. If they had 4th and 7 for the 25, yeah kick it. But you are already all the way down there, and you have Peyton Manning, just go for it.

Kubiak not pounding Steve Slaton, that was ******ed. Let's let our big gangly white backup QB scramble around a lot!

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10-06-2008 , 03:19 PM

#270

jogsxyz

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Bend but not break defense. Those teams always seem to break.

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10-06-2008 , 03:29 PM

#271

JaredL

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gusmahler

You would probably find this site interesting. They take a scoring model and run simulations to determine if teams should be going for it and going for 2 in various spots.

They have a chart for 4th down from the opponent's 40. With 6 minutes left and down 7 they say you need to get it 28% of the time to break even. I guess that's an average opponent and everything so if the other team has a solid running game I guess that would drop it down as it would make possession more important for you.

I have no idea what chance they would have on 4th and 7. I'd honestly guess it would be right around 1/3 of the time which is just over the 28% they have.