ya no matter what you do there its a small mistake. I wuold opt to decreasing variance as much as possible.

kicking was 100% right.

I guarantee the Rams were hoping they would sneak it so Donald/Suh would have a chance to make a play.

The FG/go for it option can be argued either way. I was convinced Bill would opt for the FG because that is typically what he does in those situations. He kicked in a somewhat similar situation against MIA and he got burned by the Miracle in Miami. But in that case he screwed up the previous plays by not managing the clock well.

In this case kicking appears mathematically correct but not by much, that is if you consider their kicker missed one badly earlier in the game. I think 95% is too optimistic. These guys are barely 95% on the XP. I'd take 19:1 on a miss all day.

Also, a blocked FG attempt that does not go past the LOS is not considered a miss. So one needs to take block % into the calc as well as miss %.

BTW that 4th down spot was awful.

With around 2 mins left did the refs/nfl come over and tell the Rams coach to decline both penalties because the game would essentially be over if he accepted the one penalty?

I feel like once the refs ask you which of the 2 penalties you accept and you pick you, that should be your final answer.

Not let the refs announce your decision to the world and then be all like... nahh just kidding.

Accepting that penalty would have been a terrible coaching decision but I guess he pulled the ole switcheroo.

So, (A) 1st and 20 at the 43 instead of (B) 2nd and 6 at the 29? IIRC clock was 2:27. Rams out of TOs.

Basic assumption: if NWE makes 1st down or makes FG then game over. This has to be 99.8% correct. So Rams are playing to stop both. Clock is irrelevant.

(A)
-1st and 20 at 43 2:27. NWE runs, clock goes to 2:00;
-2nd and 19 at 42 2:00. NWE runs, clock goes to 1:17;
-3rd and 18 at 41 1:16. NWE runs, clock goes to 0:33;
-4th and 17 at 40 0:33. NWE punts, clock goes to 0:27.
-Rams get ball with 0:27 best case scenario at their 20 (punt goes for touchback).

(B)
-2nd and 6 at 29 2:25, NWE runs, clock goes to 2:00;
-3rd and 5 at 28 2:00, NWE runs, clock goes to 1:17;
-4th and 4 at 27 1:17, NWE kicks FG, goes up 10, game over.

If you think the probability of blocking the kick or missing a 44 yard FG and gaining an extra 25 yards field position and 45 seconds is better than the alternative, then you decline the penalty. If you think getting the ball with 0:27 at around your 10 is better than depending on the unlikely event of a FG block/miss, then you accept the penalty.

Yeah, I'm not sure what is better in this case. Someone just has to show the math. Probably sneaking it is better, but both are game overs if successful.

I think the only actual mistake there is not lining up for a sneak and seeing the coverage. If you don't get the look you want, you take the timeout and then kick.

Also, it the roof was open, so not dome conditions.

Kicks were shanking all night. They should have went for it.

Gost was 5/7 (71.4%) from 40-49 this year, and had already missed a kick in that range in the game as noted.

BTW, he's 167/176 in the last 3 years on XPs, that's jussssst less than 95%. LOL that he's better than that percent to make a 40+ FG that basically wins the Super Bowl.

Kicking is reasonable on 4th and a long 1 or whatever. It was literally a single inch (bad spot, shoulda been about 1/2 yard). Only data I could find indicates teams convert 4/1 at about 70%. This would be higher than that.

As alluded to above, even if the success rate is equal, that favors going for three reasons:
Success on going for it is 100% WP, success on FG is less than that (though still very high obv)
Failure on going for it never results in a calamity that flips the field or even ties the game, whereas failure on the FG rarely does.
Failure on FG also gives the Rams a bonus 7 yards of field position, for whatever that's worth.

I don't think losing with a 10 point lead is material to the decision.

Going for it probably needs 85% success rate, which is probably a bit below the FG make %. But again blocks are not accounted for in make/miss %, so if Rams can block it 5% of the time then maybe going for it is correct. Either way it is super close.

But Rams probably buried themselves with the Romo decline penalty choice. That locked them into this scenario. Not that the other is attractive, but 0.5% is better than 0.1%.

I’m sure Goff was going to go 90 yards in two plays with 27 seconds left

Ok gif

I would much rather have B than A going to the 4th down play.

If they can't run 5 plays in 27 seconds then lol them

Not completed plays.

The roof was closed after the fly over.

54+ minutes about bad & very sad punts

Their no. 3 saddest punt (Bills/Colts snow bowl last year) was one of the few times I screamed at the TV screen over what my team was doing.

Is #1 the colts vs patriots?

ya i had to lol @ how many of these i remembered watching
(including the Bears/Seahawks game in the beginning)

sorry, actual intentional punts only


spoilers:

Chris Kluwe also offered up this nomination from 2008, another OG Chilly special:


https://twitter.com/ChrisWarcraft/st...56718599843841


which seems worse than a lot of the ones on the list above
(which might mean that JB screwed up in this piece, but that doesn't really diminish it too much, it's great & entertaining in its own right)

Waving the white flag only down 2 scores is the worst. But chillys explanation is priceless and astonishing at the same time. How inept are these general managers/owners? Don't answer, I know

I remember the one vs the Titans can confirm it was sad. He's OG Chilly for a reason.

Please do not remind me of that bears seahawks game, I was gonna attend it and backed out the last min realizing how awful it was gonna be, then it proceeded to be worse than my expectations. That midfield punt on 4th and 1 down 20, gjge.

John Fox + Jimmy Clausen combo everybody.

Certainly in whatever formula he used there's a huge difference between 2:00 and 3 timeouts vs 0 and it's basically impossible to search for that key variable adequately.

They also did the lindley vs sanchez AIDSfest with a cameo of a bunch of bears QB'd games because nobody beats us there in terms of amount of all time bad QB'd games in the recent era plus our D made some other guys have bad games, but that was b/c we were good, instead of man that guy just is bad.

Vikings won that 2006 game b/c it was the Lions so lol the rest of us. That top 10 bad punts list the team punting won 6 games and tied 1 out of the 10. WHO'S LAUGHING NOW.

Yeah that 08 punt is an all time level of stupid simply because uh, you're relying on a bad snap lol.

The level of ineptness of NFL coaches overall is consistent among all professions at the top. You get a giant mixed bag, but many are the John Fox types of the world. There's just so many of them that some end up there simply by sheer odds.

They were discussing this video on Reddit and a lot of people said this proves trusting your defense is the right play.

I hate them.

This is so true. I think NFL coaches are probably better than most professions actually, as at least their poor choices get scrutinized. There are inexplicably bad and ego-driven decisions being made by C-level execs at Fortune 500 companies every day, it's just that no one gives a **** about them.