Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)
07-31-2017
, 07:44 AM
07-31-2017
, 04:08 PM
07-31-2017
, 08:39 PM
Quote:
As I outlined in my OP....
-Theres a ridiculous amount to be made by betting on the fight since books are accepting so much action.
-The rematch and trilogy(assuming Floyd wins rematch) would be huge
-Its not unreasonable to assume theres an under-the-deal table where Floyd will manage Conor(or Conor will "sign with Mayweather promotions") after Floyd's career is over.
As far as getting caught, they actually have the perfect styles to execute it and the perfect excuse to blame it on: They can have a "real" fight for a few rounds with Floyd totally outboxing Conor while barely getting touched, but not really doing major damage since hes fighting an overly-defensive style. Then the in the middle rounds when Floyd tries to just slip out of the way of a Conor punch by one inch(ala all those amazing highlights we saw in the "Floyd defensive highlights" youtube), but he stays one inch too close and Conor lands one powerful left. Regardless of whether it actually KOs Floyd, it can certainly land hard enough that Floyd can take a dive and not have it look overly suspicious. Then afterwards, they play up the "Floyd was still great, but time catches up to everyone and he got a little cocky there" which will obviously lead to the rematch.
Thats because you're thinking about it from YOUR perspective. Obviously you can't just "think like a sociopath", but consider how you would react if you had a major embarrassing shortcoming(not being able to read) and someone mocked you in front of everyone about it. Then look at Floyd's reaction to that same scenario- I legitimately believe he does not care one bit about what any of us peasants think about him. I have never seen anything from his reactions or his statements to indicate otherwise. Its all about money to him. He makes this so abundantly clear in everything he says and does.
Moreover, you guys are way way way way way overstating how much a loss would hurt his legacy. Did Jordan's run with the Wizards hurt his legacy? Its super easy to dismiss a loss when it comes 2 years after you retired vs a guy in a weight class bigger than you in a fight you were dominating until he landed one lucky punch(and you came back to beat him in the rematch).
I agree he has an ego, but the difference between him(being a sociopath) and normal ego-driven people is that his ego is only based upon his views of himself. In other words, if he knows that he only lost because he took a dive and he knows he made a ton of money off it then he won't care if other people don't know that because he gives absolutely zero f*cks what other people think.
Oh I agree that if he gets caught then he'd be in big trouble. My point is that if you have 2 very intelligent and socially-aware people who have a mastermind plan to make billions then its going to be very hard to prove in the court of law that it was fixed.
-Theres a ridiculous amount to be made by betting on the fight since books are accepting so much action.
-The rematch and trilogy(assuming Floyd wins rematch) would be huge
-Its not unreasonable to assume theres an under-the-deal table where Floyd will manage Conor(or Conor will "sign with Mayweather promotions") after Floyd's career is over.
As far as getting caught, they actually have the perfect styles to execute it and the perfect excuse to blame it on: They can have a "real" fight for a few rounds with Floyd totally outboxing Conor while barely getting touched, but not really doing major damage since hes fighting an overly-defensive style. Then the in the middle rounds when Floyd tries to just slip out of the way of a Conor punch by one inch(ala all those amazing highlights we saw in the "Floyd defensive highlights" youtube), but he stays one inch too close and Conor lands one powerful left. Regardless of whether it actually KOs Floyd, it can certainly land hard enough that Floyd can take a dive and not have it look overly suspicious. Then afterwards, they play up the "Floyd was still great, but time catches up to everyone and he got a little cocky there" which will obviously lead to the rematch.
Thats because you're thinking about it from YOUR perspective. Obviously you can't just "think like a sociopath", but consider how you would react if you had a major embarrassing shortcoming(not being able to read) and someone mocked you in front of everyone about it. Then look at Floyd's reaction to that same scenario- I legitimately believe he does not care one bit about what any of us peasants think about him. I have never seen anything from his reactions or his statements to indicate otherwise. Its all about money to him. He makes this so abundantly clear in everything he says and does.
Moreover, you guys are way way way way way overstating how much a loss would hurt his legacy. Did Jordan's run with the Wizards hurt his legacy? Its super easy to dismiss a loss when it comes 2 years after you retired vs a guy in a weight class bigger than you in a fight you were dominating until he landed one lucky punch(and you came back to beat him in the rematch).
I agree he has an ego, but the difference between him(being a sociopath) and normal ego-driven people is that his ego is only based upon his views of himself. In other words, if he knows that he only lost because he took a dive and he knows he made a ton of money off it then he won't care if other people don't know that because he gives absolutely zero f*cks what other people think.
Oh I agree that if he gets caught then he'd be in big trouble. My point is that if you have 2 very intelligent and socially-aware people who have a mastermind plan to make billions then its going to be very hard to prove in the court of law that it was fixed.
08-02-2017
, 11:10 AM
08-02-2017
, 11:36 AM
08-02-2017
, 04:15 PM
08-02-2017
, 06:25 PM
08-02-2017
, 07:25 PM
08-02-2017
, 07:47 PM
uhhh, doesn't look too bad. How did Connor look?
08-02-2017
, 09:25 PM
08-03-2017
, 10:07 AM
08-03-2017
, 10:45 AM
Quote:
http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id...mcgregor-fight
Covers odds making, the amount of money coming in, etc. worth a read
Covers odds making, the amount of money coming in, etc. worth a read
"This should be the easiest fight that any bookmaker's ever booked," Vaccaro quipped. "The general public is much more involved these days, and you know their hole cards. They're going to bet the big dog, and you'll know closer to the fight what number the big guys are salivating to lay."
Vaccaro is a super user!
They didn't break down punching statistics or analyze the speed and elusiveness of the fighters. They didn't scour the internet, looking for any video of McGregor boxing, or sneak a peek at Mayweather to see how much the 40-year-old had been enjoying retired life, either. Instead, they simply tried to predict how much would be bet on the fight and what percentage of the betting public would automatically gravitate toward McGregor, who would undoubtedly be a giant underdog.
Why analyze the fight when all you need to analyze is how many McGregor slappies there are?
A month before the fight, 85 percent of the money that had been bet on the winner at William Hill's sportsbooks was on McGregor, including a trio of $50,000 bets on the underdog placed by the same customer on July 24 that could result in a $662,500 profit. The early lopsided action had William Hill facing potentially its biggest decision in the company's five-year history in Nevada.
Less than $1 mil is the biggest decision ever for a big sportsbook?
By mid-July, MGM's sportsbook had taken close to 1,800 bets on McGregor and less than 50 on Mayweather, according to Rood.
Lol, 97% of the public on McGregor.
From one sportsbook to the next, up and down and on and off the Strip, the betting trends have been nearly identical -- thousands of bets on McGregor, with only a handful on Mayweather. And that has Las Vegas bookmakers currently sweating a bit, because their liability is currently quite lopsided.
Some sportsbook directors told ESPN that they've already heard from their casino bosses, who were concerned about the liability building up on McGregor less than a month before the fight.
McGregor's literally got Vegas shook!
Several shops said the true odds of Mayweather winning are closer to -5,000 (1-50), but they're able to book the fight at a much lower price.
"I've said [McGregor] realistically could be 50-1," Westgate SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman said, "and people have asked, 'Why don't you give me 50-1, then?' I tell them I don't need to, because you're already betting him at 5-1."
Sounds straight out of this thread. Every lol McGregor bettor is such an enormous fish. Could this be the biggest disparity ever, between true odds and betting odds?