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Old 06-16-2017, 12:34 AM   #101
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

-500 bovada now
1.21 betfair
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:38 AM   #102
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

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-500 bovada now
1.21 betfair
-500 until someone actually tries to bet Floyd on there lol. Bovada and its phantom lines / limits are a fraud .
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:39 AM   #103
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

possible riggage?


Last edited by 702guy; 06-16-2017 at 12:45 AM.
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:46 AM   #104
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

For those with short memories...
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...ey-fight-fixed
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Old 06-16-2017, 01:27 AM   #105
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conor_McGregor
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Background
When McGregor was twelve years old, he began boxing at Crumlin Boxing Club under two-time Olympian Phil Sutcliffe.[161] It was here where he laid the foundations to his striking ability,[162] training with fighters such as Dean Byrne and Jamie Kavanagh, both of whom went on to train at Wild Card Gym under Freddie Roach. Kavanagh recalls McGregor as "a game kind of boxer. He was very game. He loved to fight. But he was also very strong - he could seriously bang."[163] McGregor would eventually become an All-Ireland champion at youth level,[164] but his attention began to turn towards other martial arts when he was about sixteen.[161] Despite this, and his family moving to West Dublin, McGregor continued boxing. He has regularly sparred at Celtic Warrior Gym, Blanchardstown, which has been home to boxers such as Gary O'Sullivan and Frank Buglioni.[165][166] Head coach Packie Collins, brother of Steve, commented "he comes down here and he can hold his own with world champions." He continued "I won’t name names but, the last time he was up here a very good boxer of ours couldn’t make head nor tail of what Conor was doing. He has what appears like a kind of chopping movement when he strikes and he doesn’t use a traditional stance, so this guy just couldn’t time him at all."[167
You guys do realize that Floyd is much more like a Sugar Ray Leonard than a Mike Tyson. All this confidence in Floyd by KO is bizarre. Granted, McGregor's stamina is suspect.

Additionally, it really doesn't matter that Floyd is clearly a better points fighter; anyone taking that strategy would be a fool. (Canelo Alvarez)

The left handed factor - there's probably a good reason why Floyd never fought Winky Wright or Paul Williams. That being because they would have been by far the toughest fights of his career. Lefty's see you every day, but you don't see them that often, (think baseball)

The best chance Conor has is to take the real estate that the smaller Floyd will give him, cut off the ring, and only really open up when he has him trapped in the corner. (triple G style) If he commits to this approach it could get interesting.
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Old 06-16-2017, 01:33 AM   #106
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

lol yeah just cut off the ring trap floyd in the corner and open up ez game
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Old 06-16-2017, 01:54 AM   #107
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Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

People don't don't think that it's Floyd's power that will knock him out, it's that he's essentially an amateur boxer who has never gone 12 rounds before and will eventually be unable to defend himself after eating 95% of the punches round after round
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Old 06-16-2017, 02:14 AM   #108
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

My guess is that there will be some kind of low blow, disqualification, WWE style drama with chairs being thrown and the ring filled with people that will result in FM winning the fight but will setup another fight. Something that looks good to the casual fans buying the ppv. they definitely want to milk this for hundreds of millions from donks.
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Old 06-16-2017, 02:46 AM   #109
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

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fwiw the kelly criterion calculator online that i looked at this morning i put in a conservative estimate of floyd winning 95% of the time and the odds at 1-8 and it said bet 25% of roll. i don't know how accurate that is though i wont pretend to be a good sports gambler or anything. i wish i still had more poker money as i feel like as a young person this is a legitimate good investment opp
Where does the 95% win expectation come from? A conservative practice is to wager half Kelly with the presumption that confident gamblers overestimate their edge. I would definitely cake in some fluff on this one given how weird this situation is seeming.

The other thing with Kelly in practice is that it relies on bets of the given edge being readily available and for large sample. If you look for some Kelly Monte Carlo charts, the swongz can be kind of wicked and 25% roll on a one and done seems pretty aggro.
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Old 06-16-2017, 03:15 AM   #110
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

McGregor's already won! $100m payout when four years ago he was claiming the dole. my guess is he never fights again after this. He's been amply compensated for the humiliation* that will ensue.

The pressers and build up will be electric.


*I mean, not that it's humiliating really, anyone sane knows he has practically zero chance
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Old 06-16-2017, 03:24 AM   #111
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

The odds are basically "What % do we think the fight is fixed"
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Old 06-16-2017, 07:33 AM   #112
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

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lol yeah just cut off the ring trap floyd in the corner and open up ez game
How has no one thought of this before???!?
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Old 06-16-2017, 08:21 AM   #113
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

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The odds are basically "What % do we think the fight is fixed"


Yup exactly this
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:27 AM   #114
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

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Sharp money should be offsetting the public money
the main thing I see here is that sharp money probably doesnt want to tie up 5 or 6 figures at say -1000 for 10 weeks. I wonder how much sharp money even wants to tie it up at say -700. I could see that being a reason its been bet down.
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:29 AM   #115
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

Going to need Riverman's take on this
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:29 AM   #116
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

why are we assuming public money is coming in to back the dog? that's kind of a bass ackward assumption.
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:34 AM   #117
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

I don't know anything about boxing but 40 is quite old in any sport and 40 year olds generally have some decreased ability.

Would people still consider him to be a favourite at 45? What about 50?
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:35 AM   #118
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

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why are we assuming public money is coming in to back the dog? that's kind of a bass ackward assumption.
what? just talk to people. people really think this will be a good fight.
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:36 AM   #119
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

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Originally Posted by loosekanen View Post
why are we assuming public money is coming in to back the dog? that's kind of a bass ackward assumption.
Because there are a lot of MMA fans who are betting based on how they want things to happen (and what Joe Rogen, etc. have been telling them will happen).
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Old 06-16-2017, 09:43 AM   #120
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

I'm overseas so likely out of touch. I have not talked to one person who seems to think this will be a good fight nor have I seen any respected journalist even take it seriously.
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:09 AM   #121
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

i don't think the casual gambler who puts 50 bucks down on a fight is looking for a 5 dollar return
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:30 AM   #122
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

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I don't know anything about boxing but 40 is quite old in any sport and 40 year olds generally have some decreased ability.

Would people still consider him to be a favourite at 45? What about 50?
40 is old for any athlete, but Floyd's skill isn't in speed as much as it is technique.

It's not unlike Roy Jones Jr. And Bernard Hopkins. RJJ might be the fastest fighter in Middleweight history. At his peak he was absolutely blinding. He never had great teqnique, but his speed and power made that irrelevant. He fought BHop when he was 24 and won by Unanimous decision.

BHop was never overwhelming, but his technique was about as close to perfect as we've seen. He was the Tim Duncan of boxing, which is why, when he and RJJ met again 17 years later, Hopkins won because RJJ had slowed down enough to be vulnerable.

Floyd is much closer to BHop than RJJ
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Old 06-16-2017, 10:49 AM   #123
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

What's the weight difference between the two
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Old 06-16-2017, 11:04 AM   #124
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

40 years old in any combat sport vs most other sports isn't the same, combat sports relies more heavily on technique than any other & we see alot of older athletes still compete at the highest levels at that age. With that said, floyd is giving conor advantages he has never given to any other fighter, conor is probably a similar size to triple g & he even wants conor to fight at a comfortable 154lbs as appose to 147, i give conor a 5% chance at winning.
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Old 06-16-2017, 11:05 AM   #125
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Re: Conor McGregor vs. Floyd Mayweather (August 26th)

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What's the weight difference between the two
Floyd will be 150-155lbs on fight night, conor will be 165-170 fight night, so a good 10-15lbs weight difference, with 1" of height to conor & 2" reach advantage.
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