Lol

I'm thinking it more goes down like in Rocky 3 when the Italian Stallion gets his ass beat by Thunderlips and then reverses. Just expecting a complete circus show with this fight. Feel his real record as a boxer will always be 49-0 and this will be a bunch of theatrics and bull****.

Not sure if your whole last paragraph is serious.

Thanks for this post. It helped me understand the line better.

Not trying to pile on, but striking in MMA is, almost entirely, abysmal.

The nature and Variety of offense in MMA makes it so no discipline can succeed in a vacuum. Try to box and you get taken down; try to wrestle and get boxed up.

Stances change to incorporate multiple offensive options and each skill gets worse.

Some MMAists (Cody, Stipe) have legit boxing backgrounds, but most others just learned Muay Thai and the like.

This doesn't make sense. Everyone thinks the odds on McGregor winning are too short. Bookies aren't offering "relatively good odds on McGregor winning".

Yeah, a more accurate description would be "they are offering good odds on Mayweather because so much money is coming in on McGregor right now, and because the sharps don't want to tie up their money this early. As it gets closer to the fight the odds on Mayweather are going to get shorter because lots of big money will come in on him"

the only semi-plausible mcgregor win scenario i can see is if floyd breaks his hand on conor's face in the first round which he has been known to do. might need to break both but he does have really fragile hands for a boxer

what should be the true odds on this fight?

mayweather 1/25?

Not read the link, but I don't get this. If Mayweather will get shorter then why wouldn't the sharps (which I hope means what I think) bet now?

I get that it's 2.5 months away and this ties up the cash, but if you bet - say - 100 units to win 23 but the odds shorten to only winning 18 then you lose 5% of the initial stake. How are you going to gain an expected 5% on your money in 2.5 months? Seems like a small price to way for insane value.

I may be totally misunderstanding though

i'm with you DTD on the same point i don't understand that logic at all. who is making that much money in 2 months where it doesn't make sense to bet this stupid line if you are a sharp. but what do i know

i think maybe perhaps a more plausible reason is that boxing is a niche sport and all these nerd sharps prob never bet boxing with their models and **** can't really plug in numbers and be confident on the outcome and might just be confused and suspicious because they arent that used to betting on these huge favorites. but again i have no idea what i'm talking about but given boxing only has so many events a year and with the lol judges there is a lot of uncertainty it seems very difficult to believe there are many sharps betting on boxing a lot as opposed to other sport where there is way more action and sample sizes. i just cannot fathom how floyd is not at least -1000

A couple of ideas:

1 - Yes, they may have places where they can get a better expected return by betting them now and getting worse odds on this fight later

2 -From this article, the lines aren't expected to move much until it gets closer to the fight so in a few weeks or a month the sharps should still be able to get similar lines.

I can understand waiting if people think the lines may move even more in favour of betting on Floyd, obv - plus, I guess, if you thought that the best estimate final odds were the same as they are now then it's probably not optimal to bet now.

It does remind me of Floyd V Hatton. I'm in the UK and when the fight was made Hatton was seen as the huge underdog that he was. But, with all the hype (maybe Hatton's work rate could edge out a decision?) the odds came in. Then Hatton got outclassed as people originally expected.

This surely is different though - but the truth is we don't know for sure. I couldn't resist betting 100 to win 23 so I went for it. If they move to give even more value then I'll put more on!

even though a sharp has a lot less than 5% edge on the market. a million dollars tied up for 2.5 months might mean tens of millions in less bets. Even with less then a 1% edge it would be more lucrative to turn over that million 10 times then betting the fight at better odds.

Plus they can`t know for sure where the odds will go.

^ yeah if we're talking about a sharp that's "riding dirty" placing multiple bets daily then they don't want to lock up their working capital

But the edge on this one seems obscene .... if I go into a Kelly calculator it's basically telling me to bet my life on this

Have got some down, may put more but I'm not going past 2% of my net worth ..... WWE angle nagging at me here

Floyd's record being ruined has to rule out the WWE angle. The biggest unsure thing about Mcgregor seems to be whether he's the real deal or not. From all acounts posted here he's a poor boxer, but is he hiding something?

Floyd knows boxing rules better than most, he would be more likely to pull an angle (Ortiz fight).

Floyd even with 2 broken hands would still likely be able to pitter pat Conor's face scoring points and avoiding damage and still be a sizable favorite.

If it's just about opportunity cost then that seems insane to me. The 5% is of course made up, but if you actually make more than that on average in that time frame then you're looking at returns over 25% per year. Nobody makes that, surely, outside of those who know more than they should about the market.

That said - there must be something going on for the odds to be like that. Seeing the history of the price from the date the match was made to the actual fight should be interesting. There can't be many events like this in history with the betting market so deep.

Tyson and Holyfield are better examples since both cleared 300+ million and were dumb enough to busto.

Just in the last couple weeks in the NBA finals Warriors were about a 75% favorite for the series.

enough "dumb" money is going to be going in on McGregor no matter what the line is at in this one and I think as David said the lower opening odds help build more hype for the fight.

There may also even be many sport fans who realize while a Mayweather bet is a plus EV wager they'd rather lay off and just enjoy the fight and hope for the miracle McGregor win.

yeah i mean if the odds are even like 10-1 i don't see many of the rich casual bettors having much interest in putting down 10k to win 1k or whatever but maybe i'm wrong. that makes the fight a bit nerve wracking for bettors i think. gonna be all sharps on mayweather i guess


in boxing you can bet on yourself so i think it would be hilarious if floyd can convince one of the casinos to let him put like 10m on himself at 10-1 or whatever and have him post the slip on twitter . or use a bunch of his posse to make a ton of 50k bets over time. pretty sure that would get shut down very quick tho but a man can wish. that would kill the action though and probably make everyone realize they are getting duped

really? this is legal?

If so then Floyd should work on getting $300mm down on himself so he makes an extra $50mm.

at least i have heard of it before multiple times

i would imagine there are some stipulations like i doubt anyone would let floyd bet on method of victory. maybe i'm completely wrong