points are not linear in football.

Given how unlikely it is to matter I'm not sure it is "obviously stupid" but I think it was a mistake for the Giants to NOT challenge the spot when they came up inches short on third down just before their final field goal.

To me the spot looked fine so the challenge probably would have had a low probabilty of success but the cost is so low compared to the potential gain that I think it is clearly worth it anyway. If succesful the game is over and even if you fail all it costs is a timeout you are very unlikely to find a use for anyway.

/Bjorn

I had a feeling someone would say this. I want And Reid out after this year, but I have no problem with benching McNabb @ Bal and then naming him the starter for AZ. Between the Cincy/baltimore gamew, McNabb has never played worse, and was at rock bottom. He figured that Kolb couldn't have played worse, and he didn't, it's just that he didn't play any better either. As for starting him vs. AZ, McNabb's still their best shot at a win

They were able to rush for 3 TDs in a game. I think they'd make it more than 50% of the time.

Plus you will be "On fire!!!" and have unlimited turbo.

That is why I said roughly. Obviously if this were the end of the game, the score would dictate the proper action. However, the fair catch kick situation came up at the end of the first half, and in that situation, the linear approximation is good enough for the point I was making (that it would have been better to attempt a hail mary).


(I actually don't even remember what the score was at that point)

this was correct.

hail mary range is farther away than fg range.

any time you go for two with ten minutes left in the second quarter

fail

It's correct with like 20 seconds left, with 45 I think you try for the touchdown on round one, or at least a closer field goal.

make sure you include not just the chance of converting a hail mary, but also the chance of pass interference.

I cross posted this with the Week 14 games thread. I think it's so blatantly stupid that it deserves some discussion.

I went to the Packer game. It was 2nd and goal from the inch yard line with about 3 minutes left and a tie game. Aaron Rodgers is at least 12/12 in short yardage QB sneaks on the year. Earlier in the drive on 4th and inches, Rodgers easily got the first down on a sneak. Somehow, McCarthy makes the MIND NUMBING decision to run the ball off the right guard (when we've been getting owned there most of the day) and we lose a yard and a half. We have to settle for a field goal from 1 yard out when we can't convert on the next play (another questionable decision). But Jesus Christ, McCarthy. Let's look at the pros/cons of our options on 2nd and goal.

QB sneak:

Pros: Can do it three times in a row, nearly impossible to lose yardage, if you fail on 4th down they have the ball on the inch yard line. This is not to mention the Packers' 100% success rate over a LARGE sample on the year.

Cons: Possibly get Rodgers hurt? (but then why run it ever?)


Running the ball does the same thing, except you can get stuffed for SIGNIFICANT negative yardage! Why would you not run a play where you have 3 tries, EACH WITH NEAR 100% chance of success?!?!?!

This argues even more in favor of going for the hail mary, but they never call pass interference on a hail mary anyway (see the last play of last year's pats vs ravens game.)

I just want to post now about the terrible decision Gary Kubiak will make in tonights MNF game. The details are immaterial.

LOL

Boston College with 4th and 4 on the VT 33. Punt into the endzone.

But what if you don't make it????

Tom Cable's fake field goal must be the stupidest play by a coach in the history of the NFL.

Because it didn't work?

urban meyer not calling TO at the end of the first half was amazingly stupid, cost florida at least a point

Because it had no chance of working. They needed 17 yards for a 1st down. And Janikowski is a fat slob kicker who couldn't gain 17 yards unless he had a 16 yard head start.

MZ punting across the 50 on 4th and less than 5. More than once.

Here's the situation: Oakland is facing a fourth-and-10 from the Kansas City 25-yard line in a 3-3 tie.

Brad Childress starting Gus next week.

Tomlin going for it on 4th and goal from the 1 in a 10 point game with 12:28 remaining.

This is a thread for bad coaching decisions.

Edit: Fly when you see the execution of the play I think it is fair to say it was bad decision making to call a play that had such a low percentage of success.