Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
actually seems fine and if its a mistake, it cant be that bad.
It's a pretty big mistake. Let's say fg is made 100% of the time, what % of the time does Ole Miss score & then win in OT? Let's say 20 & 50%, meaning you're giving Ole Miss ~10% to win by kicking. Even if you assign Ole Miss the same exact chance of scoring (20%) from the half yard line as you do after receiving a kick off (which is obviously ridiculous), A&M only has to be 50% to score a TD for going for it to be roughly breakeven.
Put more simply, Ole Miss is wayyy more likely to score starting from the ~25 and then win in OT than they are to stop A&M from getting 1/2 a yard and then go 99.5 yards in 2 minutes with no timeouts.