CFL DIVISION SEMI-FINAL PICKS
Sunday @ 1:00 pm Eastern - East Semi
BC (9-9) @ Montreal (9-9)
The line here is Montreal -3.5.
The playoffs kick off with a coast-to-coast matchup. Once again, a West team crosses over to the East. This time, the Lions fly 5 hours and across 3 time zones to face an Als team that somehow rebounded from a 1-7 start to finish at 9-9.
Neither team has momentum here, as BC lost their final 2 games, and Montreal fell to Hamilton last week, conceding the East Division title in the process. Montreal finished 6-3 at Molson Stadium, while BC was 5-4 outside of BC Place. If BC wins their next 2 games, they'll become the 4th straight team to play at home for the Grey Cup.
The prevailing thought here is that BC should win (since the West stomped the East this year), but I'm not so sure. BC is led by career backup Kevin Glenn, who led the CFL with 17 interceptions thrown this season. Montreal's pivot is Jonathan Crompton, named starter during the year after Alex Brink was ineffective.
The two teams split their two meetings this season, each winning at home.
The key matchup here will be Kevin Glenn against the Montreal defense. As indicated, Glenn has a penchant for throwing the ball to the other team, while the Als' D held 6 of their final 7 opponents to 17 points or fewer.
The Lions are a dome team, playing outside in November. They're going on the road, playing at 10:00 am "body clock" time. Their starting QB is hurt and will miss the game.
I just don't see how the Lions, who have been inconsistent all year, are going to overcome all of that.
THE PICK: Take Montreal minus the points.
Sunday @ 4:30 pm Eastern - West Semi
Saskatchewan (10-8) @ Edmonton (12-6)
The line here is Edmonton -5.5.
Sunday wraps up with the defending champs traveling to Edmonton to take on the league's stingiest defense.
Edmonton went 7-2 at Commonwealth this year, while the Riders went 4-5 away from Mosaic. Edmonton won 2 of 3 meetings this season, including a 24-0 shutout on September 26th, when the teams met for the only time in Edmonton.
Both teams will be without their preferred pivots. For the Riders, Darian Durant will not play, leaving 41-year-old Kerry Joseph as the starter, with Sunseri and Doege holding the clipboards. For Edmonton, Matt Nichols gets the nod ahead of injured Mike Reilly.
Edmonton experienced an 8-game turnaround from last year under first-year Head Coach Chris Jones. The Esks gave up 340 points in 2014, leading all CFL defenses. They also led all teams in Offensive YPG, Defensive YPG, and Passing YPG allowed.
RB John White had a field day against the Riders on September 26th, rushing for 192 yards. Edmonton's running game is such that Matt Nichols shouldn't have to make too many plays, as Edmonton will do most of their damage on the ground instead of through the air (whether or not the conditions dictate it).
Unsurprisingly, this game will come down to Kerry Joseph versus the Esks' D. Edmonton's rush will trouble Joseph all game; they should record multiple sacks, and potentially create multiple turnovers.
I know the return of Joseph is a bit of a "feel-good" story, but this isn't 2007. Joseph has led us to a title, but that was
seven years ago. And even then, '07 was the exception to Joseph's career, not the norm.
Is Edmonton good enough to win this game by a TD? I think they are.
THE PICK: Take Edmonton minus the points.
"GOOD LUCK AND GOOD GAMBLING"