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Old 08-16-2014, 11:21 PM   #101
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Re: CFL Season 2014

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Your system is predicting this week.
Yup I think it's pretty effective actually
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Old 08-17-2014, 10:04 AM   #102
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Re: CFL Season 2014

RedBlacks give up 10 points to Edmonton, still lose.

Receivers can't catch the ball for ****, my god. Two dropped passes in the end zone I think. And then a fumble on the Edmonton 9-yard line with a couple minutes left.

The constant penalties really kill these games.
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Old 08-17-2014, 01:22 PM   #103
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Re: CFL Season 2014

Edmonton/ Ottawa game dreadfull
Saskatchewan/ Montreal worse

This is turning into one of the worst seasons for scoring


I have Calgary ahead of Edmonton myself
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Old 08-17-2014, 09:46 PM   #104
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Re: CFL Season 2014

The following scenario just happened in the Toronto/bc game.

Bc challenged a play where they thought there was defensive pass interference.

On review it looks like a clear pass interference but on review they say that it wasn't. Not only that but then bc gets a chop block penalty on the play.

Lol
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Old 08-17-2014, 09:52 PM   #105
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Re: CFL Season 2014

Through 3 quarters bc has 112 yards in penalties and Toronto has 8

Edit: sinkfield just made a great catch in the end zone
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Old 08-18-2014, 09:36 AM   #106
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Re: CFL Season 2014

I don't think it was clear pass interference at all, could have been holding, but they were both hand fighting
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Old 08-19-2014, 12:59 AM   #107
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Re: CFL Season 2014

WEEK 8 UPDATE
Toronto beat Winnipeg
Edmonton beat Ottawa
Calgary beat Hamilton
Sasky beat Montreal
B.C. beat Toronto

Through Week 8, the West is now 20-3 versus the East. The Argos have 2 of the East's 3 wins.


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Old 08-19-2014, 03:53 PM   #108
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Re: CFL Season 2014

SYF Week 8 Power Rankings:

1. Calgary (6-1) Moved up from #3

What happened: They looked impressive over Hamilton and have been on the cusp of taking the top spot for quite some time but have finally edged out a couple of teams for top spot.

2. Edmonton (6-1) Moved down from #1

What happened: They beat the RedBlacks by a score of 10-8. They ended up getting the W but when you cant score against the RedBlacks, that's not good.

3. BC (5-3) Moved down from #2

What happened: They looked very good against the Argos IMO and I think that this is a team that is very powerful and we have been starting to see that over the past few weeks. The only reason they got bumped down was due to the performance of Calgary.

4. Toronto (3-5) No change

What happened: They played two games in week 8! (wtf) In their first encounter they ended up laying the boots to Winnipeg but ended up giving up a lot of late game points to the Lions in their second game and still find themselves at #4.

5. Winnipeg (5-3) No change

What happened: They got beat down by the Argos, luckily for them the teams below them didn't have stellar performances.

6. Saskatchewan (5-2) No change

What happened: They managed to somehow sneak by the Als in a pretty dismal offensive display. Luckily for me the Ws keep rolling in for the Riders when they probably shouldn't.

7. Hamilton (1-6) No change

What happened: They played the Stamps and like most teams that play the Stamps, ended up losing.

8. Ottawa (1-6) No change

What happened: They actually almost beat the Eskimos but ended up losing again.

9. Montreal (1-6) No change

What happened: Another week, another loss
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Old 08-19-2014, 04:06 PM   #109
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Re: CFL Season 2014

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It has a lot of components to it but the basics are that every play has a value attached to it (either positive or negative) and certain types of plays are worth more than others.

Essentially it is an attempt to remove luck from the results. Some plays during a game that would be deemed lucky would be a tipped ball at the line of scrimmage that ends up getting picked or turns into a TD.

Fumble recoveries also play a pretty big role as there is definitely an element of luck involved in those.

Of course the model isn't perfect but I want to see how it works as a potential predictive model. Basically what I've learned is that Toronto should win at a higher rate going forward whereas a team like Winnipeg should lose at a higher rate.

It also tells me that Ottawa and Montreal are almost extreme outliers. Like these two teams could be historically bad whereas the rest of the teams are at least reasonably close.
To expand on this post from a little while back...

To me there seems to be 3 elite teams:

BC
Calgary
Edmonton

1 team that is above average but appears to be "running" poorly:

Toronto

2 teams that are average:

Winnipeg
Saskatchewan

1 team that is bad:

Hamilton

And two teams that are extremely awful:

Ottawa
Montreal

Take Saskatchewan as an example...

They are 5-2 and a lot of people probably think they are a pretty good team but when you take a look at their wins and losses, this is how it shakes down...

Wins:

Winnipeg
Toronto
Hamilton
Ottawa
Montreal

So they are beating the teams that they should beat and also beat a couple of teams that are close to them but no elite teams show up on that list.

Losses:

Toronto
BC

What really stands out to me is the lack of elite teams that they've played against this year. I get kinda scared when I realize how many times they have to play BC, Edmonton and Calgary.
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Old 08-19-2014, 04:32 PM   #110
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Re: CFL Season 2014

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve Yzerman fan View Post
To expand on this post from a little while back...

To me there seems to be 3 elite teams:

BC
Calgary
Edmonton

1 team that is above average but appears to be "running" poorly:

Toronto

2 teams that are average:

Winnipeg
Saskatchewan

1 team that is bad:

Hamilton

And two teams that are extremely awful:

Ottawa
Montreal

Take Saskatchewan as an example...

They are 5-2 and a lot of people probably think they are a pretty good team but when you take a look at their wins and losses, this is how it shakes down...

Wins:

Winnipeg
Toronto
Hamilton
Ottawa
Montreal

So they are beating the teams that they should beat and also beat a couple of teams that are close to them but no elite teams show up on that list.

Losses:

Toronto
BC

What really stands out to me is the lack of elite teams that they've played against this year. I get kinda scared when I realize how many times they have to play BC, Edmonton and Calgary.
The Riders will be fine as long as they stay ahead of Winnipeg. Even if we finish 4th in the West for the crossover, the road through the East will 100% be easier than through the West.
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Old 08-19-2014, 04:35 PM   #111
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Re: CFL Season 2014

It won't be fair when the teams in 3rd and 4th in the West intentionally try and lose their last couple of games to get the crossover
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Old 08-22-2014, 10:14 PM   #112
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Re: CFL Season 2014

Yeah incomptence and specialty teams.

6-1 Montreal, 9 first downs between the two teams.

But a blocked kick, and it's 6-8 Bombers.

It's not good.
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Old 08-22-2014, 11:32 PM   #113
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Re: CFL Season 2014

haha...incompetence.
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Old 08-24-2014, 03:34 PM   #114
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Re: CFL Season 2014

Two games on a Sunday. This is good.
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Old 08-24-2014, 10:05 PM   #115
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Re: CFL Season 2014

RIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIDAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHSSSSSSSS SSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!

EDIT: Forgot to LOL @ the Lions for losing on guaranteed win night.

Forgot to LOL @ Rob Bagg dropping a WIIIIIIIDE open catch for a TD.

Dan mother****ing Clark with the greatest catch by a lineman ever.
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Old 08-24-2014, 10:44 PM   #116
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Re: CFL Season 2014

Riders running like Jerry Yang

Last edited by grando1.0; 08-24-2014 at 10:44 PM. Reason: pre-tax evasion
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Old 08-25-2014, 12:50 PM   #117
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Re: CFL Season 2014

WEEK 9 UPDATE
Winnipeg beat Montreal
Edmonton beat Toronto
Calgary beat Ottawa

Thru Week 9, the West is now 23-3 versus the East.
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Old 08-28-2014, 10:58 AM   #118
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Re: CFL Season 2014

Riders sign dressler
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Old 08-28-2014, 01:51 PM   #119
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Re: CFL Season 2014

Lol cfl
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Old 08-28-2014, 03:30 PM   #120
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Re: CFL Season 2014

Apparently Josh Gordon wanted to play for the stamps while being suspended from the nfl
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Old 08-28-2014, 07:02 PM   #121
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Re: CFL Season 2014

SYF Week 9 Power Rankings

1. Calgary (7-1) No Change

What happened: Beat down on the Red Blacks. They are starting to look like a powerhouse especially with Cornish back in the mix.

2. Edmonton (7-1) No change

What happened: A very convincing win over Toronto. The Esks also did it without Mike Reilly which to me is even more impressive. Quite the turnaround from last season.

3. BC (5-4) No Change

What happened: A loss to Saskatchewan brings them to the bottom of the West standings. I still think that the Lions are running poorly and will make the playoffs.

4. Toronto (3-6) No Change

What happened: A loss to Edmonton which has me questioning how my power rankings model works. To give you some perspective, the Argos were down a lot going into the second half and put up a good second half only to throw a pick six right at the end of the game to have them lose by 14. I'm trying to incorporate score effects into my model but it seems rather difficult. The model thinks Toronto is a good team because of the amount of late game drives that they put up only to turn the ball over and have the opposing team score. Their rankings took a huge hit this week but they are still in 4th. I also think that they are a good team running poorly. Seems to me like their turnovers are ridiculously negative.

5. Saskatchewan (6-2) Moved up from #6

What happened: Another victory for the Riders bumps them up a bit in the power rankings. A really good win in BC that cost the owner a lot of money on guarantee win night.

6. Winnipeg (6-3) Moved down from #5

What happened: Beat the awful Als but Saskatchewan put up a more impressive week and bumped the Bombers down.

7. Hamilton (1-6) No Change

What happened: Bye week.

8. Montreal (1-7) Moved up from #9

What happened: Well they lost again but these past two weeks have at least been within striking distance so they move up.

9. Ottawa (1-7) Moved down from #8

What happened: Got their asses kicked by the Stamps as expected. These guys are terrible.
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Old 08-28-2014, 08:30 PM   #122
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Re: CFL Season 2014

How are Sask and Winterpeg behind TO
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Old 08-29-2014, 12:26 AM   #123
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Re: CFL Season 2014

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Riders sign dressler
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Old 08-29-2014, 01:17 AM   #124
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Re: CFL Season 2014

Quote:
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How are Sask and Winterpeg behind TO
The riders have been not good and are running as hot as the sun. All dressler chips should help a bit.
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Old 08-29-2014, 08:21 PM   #125
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Re: CFL Season 2014

The insane thing about this weekend is that Montreal or Ottawa are guaranteed to win this weekend
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