IS there an explanation of your model? I disagree with Calgary, Toronto and BC rankings but im just a casual observer.

It has a lot of components to it but the basics are that every play has a value attached to it (either positive or negative) and certain types of plays are worth more than others.

Essentially it is an attempt to remove luck from the results. Some plays during a game that would be deemed lucky would be a tipped ball at the line of scrimmage that ends up getting picked or turns into a TD.

Fumble recoveries also play a pretty big role as there is definitely an element of luck involved in those.

Of course the model isn't perfect but I want to see how it works as a potential predictive model. Basically what I've learned is that Toronto should win at a higher rate going forward whereas a team like Winnipeg should lose at a higher rate.

It also tells me that Ottawa and Montreal are almost extreme outliers. Like these two teams could be historically bad whereas the rest of the teams are at least reasonably close.

Sounds very interesting and like a lot of work, good luck going forward!

I've looked around for a good team stats site for the Cfl but haven't really found anything; would you point me in the right direction?

I think the CFL Stats website is good.
http://cflstats.com

You used to be able to see the PDFs they send to the broadcasters before and after the game. I haven't seen them in a while.

Here's an old one from cflmedia.ca
http://cflmedia.ca/index.php?option=...=1522&Itemid=6

A couple of years ago someone was betting on the CFL in these threads. It seems like a good way to go broke.

Here's another one.

http://cflmedia.ca/index.php?option=...=3013&Itemid=5

If you could guess at the gid you could get at them.

Here's what you get poking around, 19.2mb of headshots of the Riders

http://cflmedia.ca/index.php?option=...=3023&Itemid=5

SYF, it's a bit of odd metric.

How would it cover this:

In most years the Bombers have won almost every game where they won the turnover battle and lost almost every game where they've lost the turnover battle.

Some receivers stop catching balls and never recover. Some receivers stop catching balls, are traded and start catching again.

Same with running backs putting the ball on the ground.

Some punt returners never get the knack and can never handle the ball cleanly.

--------

Today's game with Will Ford, I sure wish they would have kept him around. He was good at handling the returns and Grigsby seems to be slowing down.

The thing with fumbles that I feel is lucky is who recovers the ball.

For example if a qb is drilled from behind and the ball is fumbled that's not really luck.

However when a running back puts a ball on the ground and about 19 guys dogpile onto the ball and the refs need to sort out who gets the ball there is definitely luck involved in those plays.

But it has got to get on the ground first. Maybe it's partially the responsibility of the team, and once in while a good play by the defence.

I think there has been a lot of work done in the NFL on what type of play should be called at any point.

For sure it's not perfect (I don't really think any metric in sport really is tbh) but I'm interested to see how it compares by the end of the year to the actual standings. I think it might be a useful predictive model for how good teams actually are.

On another note, has anyone seen a WAR like stat for football players?

WAR in baseball seems to be the best metric in sport to evaluate how good someone is but I think due to the nature of the game, calculating WAR is a lot easier than things like PER in basketball and CORSI in hockey.

I haven't really seen anything that rates players in football but with 11/12 people on the field at a time, it relies a lot more on teammates (Example: A RB can be pretty useless without a good O-line) than other sports do.

Just more random error in football than baseball.

Here we go, Saskatchewan at Winnipeg, the bonus grudge match game.

This should tell us something about one team or the other.

Let's go riders.

**** you drew Willy

They keep calling the Riders for 13th man on the field.

Isn't it usually "Too Many Men"?

A little bias here?

We aren't very good this year

Lol bombers.

Holy **** were running hot right now

following cfl online is so ****ing terrible come on guys get with the game

So I'm in Vancouver at the moment so decided to have my first 3 down football experience tonight. BC place is a pretty cool stadium

WEEK 7 UPDATE
Edmonton beat Montreal
B.C. beat Hamilton
Calgary beat Ottawa

Thru Week 7, the West is now 16-2 versus the East. That's a winning percentage of 0.889.

Agreed 2 wins is a lock for first in the east. Now we all know we have to wait till labor day weekend to end to see if this is going to continue.

Also an issue is the games suck at least a majority of them

East still going to win the Grey Cup

Damn, Tuesday football.

Toronto is ridiculous!

ffs

So many penalties and give Toronto 7, 3 seconds left in the half.

This sucks.

SYF Week 7 power rankings:

This does not include Tuesday's game

1. Edmonton (5-1) No change

What happened: They beat a ****ty Als team but still remain in top spot

2. BC (4-3) No change

What happened: Probably one of the more exciting games this year saw the Lions beat the Ticats but barely.

3. Calgary (5-1) Moved up from #4

What happened: They beat down on the Red Blacks.

4. Toronto (3-4) Moved down from #3

What happened: Had a bye week and Calgary played well against Ottawa so they bumped Toronto out of #3

5. Winnipeg (5-3) No change

What happened: They lost a game to Saskatchewan that they probably had no business losing. Example: While returning a kick, a Bombers played ran into his own player, fumbled, Saskatchewan recovered and ended up scoring on the ensuing possession.

6. Saskatchewan (4-2) No change

What happened: See Winnipeg

7. Hamilton (1-5) No change

What happened: Lost a close one to BC. Seems to be the tale of the season for Hamilton. Be in close/exciting games but ultimately come up losing them. They are still not very good but the two teams below them are brutal.

8. Ottawa (1-5) No change

What happened: Another week, another lopsided loss for the Red Blacks.

9. Montreal (1-5) No change

What happened: They lost again, this time to Edmonton.

Your system is predicting this week.