Inability to keep his slider down?

How many excuses does someone get with being unlucky. Maybe he just sucks as I stated earlier. I know if a player keeps losing at poker (100k hands+), he probally is terrible. How long do I have to wait till I can say Lidge really sucks and it just isn't variance. When is long term in baseball. I don't think the Astros are willing to give him a couple of seasons of screwing up. Thing is in baseball and other sports, there is no real long term with a lot of players who are blowing games. This guy has been blowing games, I'm not a Astros fan (Braves fan) but I know I get quickly frustrated with closers blowing it. I don't have a reason of why he's doing is mosdef (I don't follow the Stros) but I don't think the Stros are willing to wait long term as seen by there early switch of the closer after a terrible previous season.

For those who didn't see the game...leadoff guy hits a grounder to Biggio's left that somehow gets through. Bidge should have made the play. He then gets a couple week groundouts and the runner has made it to third with 2 outs. Then a fairly weak grounder down the first base line that Berkman was behind, hits the bag and goes 20 feet in the air towards Biggio, who fields it and throws to Lidge covering about a half-step too late. He then struck out the next batter.

I don't blame him at all for this loss. This was totally dumb luck.

That's a large sample space and you are still making assessments by looking at end results rather than using analytic thinking.

When his bad outcomes are no longer being driven by the things that are the most out of his control.

Frustration is no replacement for rational thought.

But if you think that's a good idea, what you're saying here is that, since there are only so many games in a season, when something goes wrong the best approach is a knee-jerk reaction to "shake things up", regardless of whether there is a rational basis on which to expect different future performance or not. Don't you see how backwards that is? It's no different than saying "I'm only going to get a couple of hundred hands in during this session. I don't have time to rely on AA winning in the long run, so I'll fold my AA and play my K8s instead."

That's a good hypothesis. Certainly, I've seen him hang sliders and have them pounded. So it's a plausible solution.

But let's back up a minute and, instead of relying on something we've seen once or twice, look at the data.

If he's hanging a bunch of sliders, he much be giving up more fly balls (hitters don't pound hanging sliders into the ground):

2005: GB% (percentage of batted balls that are groundballs) = 47%
2006: GB% = 44%

Nothing there. Maybe they're just ripping those balls in the air harder.

2005: LD% (percentage of batted balls that are linedrives) = 23%
2006: LD% = 23%

Golly, nothing there either. Well why in the heck did his ERA double?

2005: HR/Flyball (% of flyballs that turn into homeruns) = 12%
2006: HR/Flyball = 18%

2005: LOB% (Percentage of baserunners left on base) = 82%
2006: LOB % = 66%

Yikes! So we need to ask ourselves: is that Lidge's fault or was he just running cold?

It has been well documented that HR/Flyball is very much a "luck" stat for pitchers (less so for hitters). This number bounces around significantly from year-to-year for pitchers. When it goes way up (or down), that's luck.

What about LOB%? What happened in 2006? Well, he had a disproportionate number of his baserunners actually score. The number of his baserunners that scored was much higher than would be expected based on his level of "real" results (Ks, BBs, HRs). When someone's LOB% is way different than expected, that's luck.

In conclusion, he is not exactly the same pitcher that he used to be. That's just part of aging as a pitcher. But attributing all of the increase in runs surrendered in 2006 to psychological effects from surrendering a HR to Pujols the year before is completely irrational. It's a nice narrative and it's nice to pretend that we have some sort of insight into what's happening, but a rational analysis of the numbers shows that there's something else going on.

His walk rate almost doubled as well. His BAA was almost the same last year as it was the year before but his OBPA has jumped since his truly dominant start in 2004.

Is he having control problems? I honestly don't watch Astro games at all.

Yes, what I am trying to point out is that his increase in walk rate was not the major contributing factor in his increase in runs against.

Which means that his expected ERA in the absence of his bad luck events would have gone up from around 2.20 to 3.20. If he has a 3.20 ERA last year (i.e. if he had neutral luck) would we be having all this "ZOMG HIS HEAD IS BROKEN FROM THE PUJOLS HOMERUN!!!" talk? If not, why are we hearing all this?

To the extent that he's having control problems, it's there in the numbers. His velocity did go down some, and his control did get a little worse, but that's all there in the K and BB rates and really aren't dramatically different than expected for a pitcher aging into his high 20s. But the greatest factors driving his change in results are the luck statistics. Baseball fans have developed the knowledge to help us attribute results to skill and luck, and to ignore that knowledge and instead rely on sweeping psychological pronouncements is a fallacy.

I have not been able to watch that many astro games this year, but the control issues were definitely there last year. He was very fortunate to have Ausmus behind the plate because so many of his sliders went in the dirt. He didnt have faith in his slider, so he relied on a fastball that was very hittable without a working slider to mix it up.

Mos, AA has an unwavering long-term EV within a standard 52-card deck and within each game being played. Brad Lidge does not. I appreciate your luck argument, but to dismiss other factors to the extent that you are is a little irresponsible.

I haven't dismissed the other factors. I am saying that bad luck drove his 2006 performance much more than his decline in actual performance. Other people are saying that he was performing worse because the Pujols home "shook" him, and they're only saying that because they're failing to properly account for the impact of bad luck. With nothing else to account for the change in results they're fabricating unprovable psychobabble.

Couple things: These stats are telling us where the balls are going, but not exactly how hard they are being hit. We can't assume each ball from 2006 is being hit with the same force from 2005. Could be lower, could be higher. If it's with a higher force in 2006, that would likely mean he is offering more "hittable" pitches.

Adding up the numbers, I'm guessing 18% of his batted offerings went foul in 2005, and only 15% went foul in 2006? Is that right? That tells us a few things. We know batted balls foul (say popups near first/third that don't reach the stands) can yield outs, but can rarely yield earned runs (runner tagging from third...never happens). So more of this happened in 2005, than in 2006.

This also likely means that hitters weren't having to offer at as many "borderline strike" pitches. In other words, swinging at less "pitchers pitches". These are the pitches that usually are batted foul, if not for a weak out. And if hitters aren't having to attempt at pitchers pitches, it frees them up to attempt at fatter pitches. This likely yields harder hit balls.

EDIT: I just read your last response. For the record, I never said Lidge was wrecked from the Pujols blast. And I'm not saying luck doesn't play a factor, I'm just trying to quantify other factors. (Which is obv. very hard to do because I admittedly don't have the time to devote to it.)

Line drive percentage is determined by a company that tracks the trajectory of batted balls. It is a very good indicator of how hard balls are hit.

Line drive percentage is a very good indicator of this.

Where can I find this data? And mostly I was addressing his flyballs.

It's available from Baseball Info Solutions.

Update: Today Garner reports that Lidge will slowly find himself back in the closers role.

He has actually been quite sick lately.

From April 23 - end April
4 outings
4 IP
5 H
0 BB
8 K's
0 ER

All of May:
14 outings
16.1 IP
6 H
4 BB's
22 K's
2 ER's

June thusfar:
5 outings
5 IP
2 H
2 BB
6 K's
0 ER's

Over this timeframe his ERA has gone from 10.13 to 2.35.

thanks for posting hte update pron... let me get a jump on my fantasy league

Yeah I dropped Wheeler for Lidge last Wednesday. He's been pitching really well.

Well, that worked out well, first night back on the job and opens it up with another blown save.

lolollllllllllllllllllllllllidgaments

He was trying to get the Win. Astros blew it for him in the bottom of the 9th, though. A win is better then a save LDO.

i really wish people like clarkmeister ran teams that would be willing to trade with teams i think are good

i imagine it would go something like this

clarkmeister: [censored] brad lidge he is so bad after pujols made him ruin his underpants
assistant GM: uh you do realize he has 7 thousand strikeouts in 2 innings pitched with a negative 10 era, right
clarkmeister: get him off the team immediately - are either of the izturis kids available for trade? i really like team speed

So how bad does Brad Lidge have to suck at closer role till you guys have no confidence in the guy. How long are the Stros going to give the guy. I understand he has a lot of skills, he just can't produce in the clutch. Again, does it matter if he closes or he sets up the closer. If he's more effective setting up, what's the difference.

as a Lidge owner in three leagues, I would like to take something out of the fact that after he gave up the homer and the double to the next batter, he struck out the next two guys and got out of the jam.

It's something, right? Right???

-McGee

I was at this game. The ninth inning was awesome. The last inning sucked. I was probably the most obnoxious and belligerent A's fan in the crowd, and as it turns out Astros fans are pretty good sports about it too.

Anyway, Lidge is still good.

Seriously I don't think this one outing is enough to reapply the "Lidge is allergic to the 9th inning" label. He hung a slider, then gave up an unlucky double (on the chalk) on a fastball that a righty barely caught up to. Then he K'd the next two hitters on sick sliders in the dirt, then got a weak pop-up (albeit on another hanger).

I give him kudos for fighting back. I chalk this one up to bad variance. If he goes out there 4 or 5 times in the 9th and has troubles, maybe Gar goes back to Lidge in the 8th and Wheeler in the 9th.

Mad props to my favorite player Ensberg who hit a 7 foot tapper in extras with the bases loaded and two outs, and slid headfirst into first base like the idiot he is, for the third out. I hate you Ensberg. After seeing that, now even Billy Beane probably doesn't value you enough to put you in a uniform.