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Old 05-17-2007, 12:04 PM   #301
capone0
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

Even if Lidge has much better stuff, Lidge can't seem to fill the role of a closer and was getting crushed in the role. I'd rather have a guy with worse stuff that closes out the games then a guy with great stuff who can't take the constant heat of closing. It's definitely a mental thing with Lidge, who knows if he can return to form.
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Old 05-17-2007, 12:09 PM   #302
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

sample sizes hello
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Old 05-17-2007, 12:12 PM   #303
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

He was terrible at the end of last year as well. He had a 5.3 ERA as a closer. How many of those exist in the league? He had 1 sub 4.0 ERA month last year and 3 6+ era months.
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Old 05-17-2007, 12:23 PM   #304
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

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He was terrible at the end of last year as well. He had a 5.3 ERA as a closer. How many of those exist in the league? He had 1 sub 4.0 ERA month last year and 3 6+ era months.
Look, you can't quote ERA as evidence that he was "choking" or "terrible".

In 2006 he had a monumetally unlucky season with BABIP and HR/Fly ball. These are total luck stats for a pitcher. This had nothing to do with not being able to handle pressure. You're just making stuff up to explain changes in fundamentally flawed stats under the assumption that the stat is an accurate representation of performance.
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Old 05-17-2007, 12:25 PM   #305
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

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Maybe closing ain't his thing. Seems to be pretty solid since moving back.
As long as he's getting quality innings in, I don't care when he comes in. The whole idea of having to have a designated closer is one of the stupidest things in baseball anyway. Managing players is about putting them in positions where they'll succeed, not tying "to get them saves."
Yeah, but keep in mind that the best use of your best reliever is the situation that leverages their value the most. Also keep in mind that most managers are not smart enough to work this out on the fly and therefore need a rule of thumb to use. The rule of thumb "stick best reliever in when it's a save situation" is probably better than "stick best reliever in when it's a hold situation". Lidge is definitely better than Wheeler, and he should be used in the places where he increases their win probability the most. That happened more when he was a closer than now.
Right, but if it ain't broke, don't fix it. As long as Wheeler is closing games well (he is), and Lidge can give a quality 7th or 8th inning, let it be. Maybe try Lidge back in the closers role in the future, but for now I wouldn't touch that idea with a ten foot pole.

The only substantial argument for yanking him from set-up back to closer is that Drayton is paying him $5M+ for this season. Hopefully he doesn't start fussing and whining about this. (paying a set-up guy ~6 mil)
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Old 05-17-2007, 12:25 PM   #306
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

Put him back in then and hear the collective complaints of most Astros fans.
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Old 05-17-2007, 12:31 PM   #307
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

I was at Minute Maid park when they traded Dotel a few years ago. They announced it on the big screen and the crowd went wild.

I have a feeling Lidge would get the same standing ovation to that kind of announcement.
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Old 05-17-2007, 12:34 PM   #308
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

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I was at Minute Maid park when they traded Dotel a few years ago. They announced it on the big screen and the crowd went wild.

I have a feeling Lidge would get the same standing ovation to that kind of announcement.
The "implied odds", so to speak, of Lidge returning to form are MONUMENTALLY HUGE.
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Old 05-17-2007, 01:24 PM   #309
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

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Put him back in then and hear the collective complaints of most Astros fans.
So...if lots of people are uninformed and I disagree with them, then I'm wrong? Good argument!
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Old 05-17-2007, 01:33 PM   #310
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

Maybe you should be their GM and make the moves. Obviously their current situation isn't working. Is it really that big of a deal that they guy has gone from closer to setup? Maybe it was just bad luck but who cares. For some players a biggest issue is confidence, if returning to the setup role restores some confidence, return him there.
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Old 05-17-2007, 01:34 PM   #311
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

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sample sizes hello
hey.... ya its become a pretty big sample size

goodbye?
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Old 05-17-2007, 01:55 PM   #312
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

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Maybe you should be their GM and make the moves.
You really think the current GM/manager are infallible or something? They can't be criticized for doing stupid things? Is the Pope running the Astros now?

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Obviously their current situation isn't working. Is it really that big of a deal that they guy has gone from closer to setup?
Only if you consider "reducing the probability of winning by voluntarily using good players in less important situations" to be a "big deal".

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Maybe it was just bad luck but who cares.
Any rational person who doesn't think it's a good idea to make strategic decisions based on outcomes due entirely to luck. If you get all in with AA preflop 3 times and you get busted twice, do you stop trying to get all in preflop with AA? Why or why not?

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For some players a biggest issue is confidence, if returning to the setup role restores some confidence, return him there.
"I don't understand your fancy statistics, but baseball announcers that also don't understand statistics talk about confidence and the need to be confident all the time, and that sure as heck sounds good, so I'll go with that since I have no concrete basis on which to formulate a counterargument."
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Old 05-17-2007, 02:05 PM   #313
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

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Only if you consider "reducing the probability of winning by voluntarily using good players in less important situations" to be a "big deal".
Why do people always assume the 7th and 8th innings are meaningless? There really isn't much of a difference in the value of outs in the 7th inning rather than the 9th.
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Old 05-17-2007, 02:06 PM   #314
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

Is this your first season watching baseball? I've watched every closer other than John Smoltz just about fail in his closer role with the Braves. You can't tell me it was all physical issues with guys like Reistma, Wholers and others. So your saying the guy is just unlucky?

Last year his K/bb was halfed. Since the Pujols playoff game he hasn't been the same, same can be said for a lot of closers who "just haven't been the same" since 1 rediculous playoff appearance or appearances. I don't know what else to tell you. Is he stuck on your bench in Fantasy and you can't take it that he's not closing now. I'll put the pitcher where he can succeed. You act like Wheeler has been horrible since he started, I know it's a short sample size but let him pitch himself into the position or out of it. Same can be said for Lidge. He pitched himself out of the starting closer role. Maybe he can get it back but who cares as long as the teams winning.
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Old 05-17-2007, 02:14 PM   #315
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

[quote

Why do people always assume the 7th and 8th innings are meaningless? There really isn't much of a difference in the value of outs in the 7th inning rather than the 9th.

[/quote]

Very much agreed. I cant recall exactly what year, but the astros were playing the cards in the NLCS(?) and at the time Lidge was ace plus. Must have been the year before Pujols HR. Anyway, in the 8th inning, the meat of the cards lineup was up; 2,3 and 4 hitters. So instead of bringing in Lidge, Garner let some other donk pitch that inning because he was saving Lidge for the close in the 9th. The cards scored that inning and astros lost said game. I never understood why people are so dedicated to this policy.
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Old 05-17-2007, 02:19 PM   #316
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

Note To Billy, send Chavy to the stros for Ensberg + Lidge let us gogogo
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Old 05-17-2007, 02:21 PM   #317
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

Sounds like a Dan Miceli outing.

Who!?!?

Exactly.
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Old 05-17-2007, 02:22 PM   #318
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

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Note To Billy, send Chavy to the stros for Ensberg + Lidge let us gogogo
I figured Billy may be into Mo because of his walks, but word around here is that the Astros have been shopping Jason Lane and Morgan Ensberg and have been getting no bites.
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Old 05-17-2007, 02:34 PM   #319
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

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Why do people always assume the 7th and 8th innings are meaningless? There really isn't much of a difference in the value of outs in the 7th inning rather than the 9th.
This is incorrect. The later in the game it is (and the closer the game is) the larger the swing in win probability due the current plate appearance. Generally speaking, you are better off using your best reliever late in close games. You can always come up with an exceptional scenario where the 7th or 8th inning is more important, but a team is best served by using it's best reliever as late as possible as the "default" setting. When you don't, you sacrifice win probability.

Look up Leverage Index on google (if you haven't already). This concept has been bouncing around the sabrmetric community for about 4 years.
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Old 05-17-2007, 02:49 PM   #320
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

I'm just saying, if I'm Garner, I leave Lidge in for 7th/8th inning work as long as Wheeler is closing games out in a consistent fashion.

Just my opinion on the matter. In the future, I'd still be willing to entertain the idea of Lidge as the closer.
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Old 05-17-2007, 02:50 PM   #321
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

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Is this your first season watching baseball?
No.

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I've watched every closer other than John Smoltz just about fail in his closer role with the Braves. You can't tell me it was all physical issues with guys like Reistma, Wholers and others. So your saying the guy is just unlucky?
I didn't make any claims regarding Reitsma or Wohlers, did I?

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Last year his K/bb was halfed.
2005: 103 K, 23 BB
2006: 104 K, 36 BB

He walked more people. Now ask yourself: how much of his increase in ERA (the stat you claim shows he performed worse) was due to the increase in BBs? You can't ignore all of the other aspects of the results, including things that were out of his control.

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Since the Pujols playoff game he hasn't been the same, same can be said for a lot of closers who "just haven't been the same" since 1 rediculous playoff appearance or appearances.
"Just hasn't been the same" is meaningless. More meaningful is "lost a little velocity on his fastball, walked more batters, and got monumentally unlucky". You shouldn't attribute all of the outcome to the tiny slice of the inputs you've chosen to observe.

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I don't know what else to tell you.
How about you tell me where you did your calculations demonstrating that the increased percentage of HRs per flyball and worse batting average on balls in play were due to his lack of confidence and "just not being the same", as opposed to being pure bad luck as these stats have been shown to be in the past by various baseball analysts? Oh, you don't have any facts. You only have slogans.

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I'll put the pitcher where he can succeed.
Send him down to AA. He'll succeed for sure. Who cares if it helps the team or hurts them.

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You act like Wheeler has been horrible since he started, I know it's a short sample size but let him pitch himself into the position or out of it.
You can't evaluate whether someone is "pitching themselves into" a position if you don't know how to attribute results to their actual performance.

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Same can be said for Lidge. He pitched himself out of the starting closer role.
But this is where you're wrong. YOU NEED TO STRIP HIS BAD LUCK OUT OF HIS RESULTS!!!! YOU DON'T FIRE PEOPLE FOR THINGS OUT OF THEIR CONTROL!!!!

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Maybe he can get it back but who cares as long as the teams winning.
Results oriented thinking for the win! "Who cares if I went all-in on a 3-outer. I won!"
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Old 05-17-2007, 11:42 PM   #322
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

Lidge gives it up in the 12th tonight.

So it was a bit unlucky, but it just doesnt seem to change for that guy.
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Old 05-18-2007, 01:18 AM   #323
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

mosdef,

He walked about a third more people, his K rate dropped a little bit as he pitched 5 more innings (not that significant), but more importantly he gave up twice as many homeruns. He probably isn't as bad as he has looked compared to 2005, but he's not the same pitcher.
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Old 05-18-2007, 02:53 AM   #324
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

This team will probably contend as is, I'd guess. It is my opinion that the Brewers are way overacheiving.

I can't stand Old Scrapiron as a manager, but he built this team, so it is his to drive. Lidge needs a change of scenery. If he were out of the NL Central, or is Pujols just died, he'd be fine. I'm thinking I should invest in DirecTV so I can actually watch Astros games out here in LA.
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Old 05-18-2007, 06:46 AM   #325
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Re: Is Lidge Back!?

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but more importantly he gave up twice as many homeruns.
This is the most important one. Why do you think this happened?
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